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Happy Winter Solstice
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Happy Winter Solstice

by The MoleDecember 21, 2016

Here comes the cold and the dark. If you are like me and hate winter with a vengeance then you may be pretty depressed today. But let’s not forget that there’s an upside. Today being the shortest day of the year also means that it only gets better from here, as every new sunrise brings us a few more minutes of daylight. The contrast in daylight hours is actually a lot more pronounced over here in Europe, even in the South of Spain. Back when I was living in Germany I recall the sun setting at half past four and not appearing again until after eight. Of course it’s even worse further up North.

Alright I’m the first one to admit that Southern California has spoiled my tolerance for cold weather and short daylight hours for the remainder of my life. So be warned: No matter where you come from and how impervious you may be to crappy weather – if you ever spend more than a year or two in SoCal it will invariably throw some mental switch in your brain. Going forward you’ll never ever stop bitching about the weather anywhere else in the world. Too hot, too cold, too humid, too cloudy, too dry. Whatever it is, it won’t ever be like SoCal. You’ll turn into that weird guy down the street who’s wearing a winter coat, boots, and gloves as soon as temperatures drop below 65 Fahrenheit 😉

So I’m feeling a tiny bit better today. This cold probably is the nastiest one I’ve had since I was a child and after almost one week of fighting it my body is only slowly starting to recover. My poor wife’s now had it for over one week and as you can imagine thus far it hasn’t been a very merry Christmas season down here at the lair.

2016-12-21_es

Unlike our frail physical disposition there doesn’t appear to be any weakness across equities however. All indices are pushing higher on six cylinders and on the short term panels we are seeing a pretty pronounced diagonal leading the way higher. Shown above is the E-Mini which has remained outside its upper 100-day Bollinger.

2016-12-21_ym

Similar picture on the YM which incidentally has not even touched its upper 100-day BB for over a month now. You do not ever want to step in front of that freight train and these are the types of conditions in which mean reversion systems should be turned off.

2016-12-21_tf

The TF as well leading higher but apparently being the weakest of the bunch after initially leading the advance during its initial phase.

2016-12-21_gold_selloff

Meanwhile gold continues to be unable to find a bid. Things are turning actually quite serious here for the goldbugs. Observe how the daily panel is doing the exact inverse of what we have observed on the indices above, as the lower 100-day Bollinger is leading the way lower. There is no telling how low it’ll go, especially given continued strength in the Dollar.

Which brings us to the Euro, another symbol currently on life support…

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • captainboom

    My dad lived in the San Diego area, and was fond of commenting that the weather in SoCal is a drug. He observed that people would say:

    Boy, it’s expensive to live out here, but the weather sure is nice.
    There sure are a lot of people here, but the weather sure is nice.
    The traffic is terrible here, but the weather sure is nice.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    back here in the States, “every new sunrise brings us a few more hours MINUTES of daylight”. perhaps you should take it easy. not 100% yet.
    😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    HEHEHE – alright – point taken.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Actually it is hours here in Spain, and it keeps increasing until we have 270 hours of continuous daylight. Actually seriously – that’s how it feels in the summer. The sun doesn’t set until after 10:30pm and I think it raises above 5:00am or something. So if you turn in early (most Spaniards do not) you don’t really experience much nighttime here during the summer.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Exactly. The weather is the one redeeming quality of living in SoCal. I love S.D. by the way but unfortunately I couldn’t convince my wife to move there. I’ll keep at it 😉

  • Ronebadger

    Everyone talks about the weather…and nobody does anything about it

  • Ronebadger

    VIX!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/chartbook/428507379;

  • Tomcat

    Mole did you finally get your fill for $TSLA?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Ah – you’re not a sub, are you? It’s explained in much detail in the sub section. Maybe you could be convinced to spring a Gold sub? 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    WOW – maybe we’ll get a VIX sell signal after Christmas :-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Actually they are – have you heard about chemtrails?

  • Tomcat

    Thats my plan for 2017.

  • Ronebadger

    Yeah…not a fan

  • Ronebadger

    Talking about VIX Sell Signal…I first heard about this on Minyanville.com, when they referenced it in an Evil Speculator post. I check it out and have been on this board since. Thanks for everything, Mole…Merry Christmas…hope you’re better by then.

  • Ronebadger

    It DID poke thru the lower BB on the Daily, but who knows where it will settle…watching and waiting…the worm WILL turn soon IMHO

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    if you’re ever in SD again, let me know.
    I will DRIVE the 300 miles to meet up.
    Living in Hell, you appreciate the waters.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It’s a deal.

  • ridingwaves

    They don’t allow Gerbils in San Diego….too close to Tijuana, they are known to frequent Mexican dive bars that are full of working ladies…

  • Ronebadger
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    LMAO

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m gonna post that in my twitter – thanks mate :)

  • Tomcat

    Is this like the Mole #ThankYou tour, because my next question is: where can I buy my ticket???

  • StockTalker

    These low range/participation days suck! Although seems to be having trouble staying above VWAP.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    it’s a year old. stale, but still funny!
    (I wonder if it’s photoshopped?)

    https://www.reddit.com/r/funny/comments/3ntn5b/its_true/

  • Skidmarkalot

    Party in Old Town!!!

  • Ronebadger
  • Skidmarkalot

    Never seen that before in Branson! LOL

  • StockTalker

    What’s wrong with that? He is giving free rides.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I hate to say it but we are heading into ‘calling it a year territory’:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/355090ed35f8b02c14a44de6d4e570a7f7e994da797c5bcb95d45317ee2ec5bb.png

  • StockTalker

    Lol, bears don’t know what to do:)

  • ridingwaves

    NG tomorrow might be worth a look for scalp…
    all I know is its still cold across a lot of Trump apprentice land…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Chart please!!!

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • ridingwaves
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Only problem is that the actual SMA has not been observed well. I see one touch there in November but otherwise it kept pushing through.

  • ridingwaves

    I’m beginning to think charts are just a tool for the big boys to kill us small players……seasonality is still in favor of move north…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I don’t have seasonal data on futures – care to share?

  • ridingwaves

    Storage drawdown would bolster the trade….but that is in if, only Sith lords deal in absolutes…
    http://equityclock.com/pictures/Stock-Market-Outlook-for-November-9-2016_B5AB/image_7.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    ‘Winter T’ projects tops and bottoms for Stock Market in January and February 2017.

    Upon closer inspection I discovered a T with center posts in November and possibly in December of this year. Because ‘Winter T’ is too short in duration, has questionable center post for ‘Last Low’ and some other concerns I explain in video – I don’t consider these time projections as reliable for top placement. However, if Advance-Decline Line reverses and falls going into some of these dates – then there is a high chance that ‘Time Symmetry’ actually points to a bottom date and will be useful to find a buyable dip.

    Considering that Rate T projects a Stock Market Lows in spring of 2017 and then again in summer, I think that there are opportunities … for which cash will be needed.
    I view T Theory not as a trading tool, but as a ‘range of options’ that will have to be evaluated by other measures in real time.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cc6e31fd15d5a2df520eb8719c3f7839fb02a6cc68a119460e27e6ddb25eb4bb.png

  • captainboom

    Real. Looks like the railroad trestle in Durham, NC. Happens so often that a guy has a web site dedicated to it.

    http://11foot8.com

    Looks like his most recent video is a rental truck that peeled open pretty good. The rental company damage waiver *won’t* cover damage like this, and if you damage a truck like this, you get to rent it until it gets fixed. That can be an extremely expensive proposition.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Thanks.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Any comments from the CaptainBoom department?
    http://www.latimes.com/world/mexico-americas/la-fg-mexico-fireworks-explosion-20161221-story.html

    I doubt the Market will spark today.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    2250 test coming

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • captainboom

    I have a business associate who lives and works in Tultepec. When I heard about this two days ago, I reached out to him immediately. He and his family are okay, but he lost some friends and acquaintances in the explosion.