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Happy Halloween

by The MoleOctober 30, 2015

Not much going on out there and I’ve been slinging some code in favor of watching the proverbial paint dry. On the equities side we seem to be pushing sideways again which is a bit surprising:

2015-10-30_spoos_volume

The volume profile on the E-Mini is showing us inside quite a bit of activity and I didn’t anticipate this type of tape until 2100 mark. Then again it’s Halloween and quite a lot of folks are busy squeezing themselves into silly costumes in anticipation to get wasted. Now that’s a strategy I can get behind of!

2015-10-30_gold

Gold is starting to look a bit frisky here and I am looking forward to a solid retest of the 100-day SMA. Once that happens I’ll be waiting for the daily to offer me some kind of entry signal. Which direction you ask? Depends on the tape – the gold bugs have a good chance of producing some support here but as usual it won’t be without drama.

Two more goodies below the fold for my intrepid subs:

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It's not too late - learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don't waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

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And that is it for the week. Here’s me wishing all you merry rats a very spooky and stimulating Halloween weekend. I hope it’ll be all treats and no tricks! 😉

Cheers,

halloween


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • evilasevildoes

    anyone long gold to 1142.50 then a short to 1134 1100?

  • whatstreet?

    ***I re-posted from the previous thread. Thanks again!

    Hello community! This post is 1.5 years overdue(since the amazing March 2014 posts by Mole and Scott about system building)…
    I want to thank you Mole for your board and everyone’s educational posts.

    I started off following gurus, blew up, switched to playing reversals,
    nearly blew up again, and then was (luckly) too afraid to trade for a
    couple years after that. During my ‘afraid’ time, I was building
    systems (before I knew what they were) but then the Systems Building
    posts of March 2014 finally made it all click in my head and the light
    bulb went on.
    Life now allows me to be a full time trader, so I’ve
    been purely system building for 6 months and I now have built and
    back-tested an itra-day SPY system over the last several months and am
    at the point where I’m paper-trading it live. A second system is
    basically near the same point.

    My goal is to achieve a net 50R yearly at 1% position size eventually.

    I have been starting back-tests on Forex and Futures lately, though I’ve never traded them in the past.

    While I’ve lurked here since the great crash, I’ve found this place to be
    just amazing in the past year or so. I love the tough-love posts ’cause
    they remind me of my past. I love the posts from traders such as
    Bobby, tradingmom and many others for their real-time experiences.

    Really just wanted to say thank you. –And maybe this post will help draw out
    a few other ‘lurkers’ like me. I don’t know if I have a bunch to
    contribute, but I’ll do what I can. Hopefully I don’t bombard you with
    too many questions going forward. Just seeing if we can all help each
    other even more in achieving our goals.

  • RoastBeeph

    I’m short gold, didn’t ride it up to 1142.50 though. :) Been short for a while.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’m glad you’re finding value here. Would like to see you participate more – roll up your sleeves and learn by doing!

  • RoastBeeph

    With the bar close today, GC should have a daily moving average cross sell signal (using 9 day and 21 day EMA).

  • BobbyLow

    “I started off following gurus, blew up, switched to playing reversals, nearly blew up again, . .”

    This appears to be a common thread here as most of us have gone through the same thing. I too am grateful to have found my way to the Evil Speculator. My only regret is that I didn’t find my way here a lot sooner. You mentioned that you went through a period of being afraid. There’s nothing wrong with that. I’m still a little “afraid” and hopefully I’ll be able to maintain just enough fear/respect for the markets to keep me from making the same “brave”, reckless and bonehead plays that almost brought my accounts to 0. :)

    Thanks for the props and I wish you the best with your journey.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Hey mate – make sure you peruse this page:

    http://evilspeculator.com/tools/favorite_posts/

  • whatstreet?

    Will do! Thanks Mole.

  • Billabong

    Mole, you mentioned gold … miners have seen a lot of activity today … BTD?

  • whatstreet?

    Thanks Bobby.

    Yep! I went thru the ‘afraid’ part mostly because it seemed like nothing would work… Cool! I was right on one thing… no plan=nothing will work!!
    Totally agree with some of your other posts of how awkward it feels hearing about others following gurus into trades -cause we’ve been there before. I don’t know if we can post here enough for others to learn that lesson, or if they just have to go thru it and then see the light?

    a journey indeed…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Precise instructions in my post. Miners I completely ignore as they suffer from the double whammy (i.e. influenced by the stock market plus previous metals).

  • RoastBeeph

    Quite a reversal.

  • evilasevildoes

    yes been short since highs,,,,,

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Remember the small range on the Zero – those days are perfect for playing the swings.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Chart…
    .

  • tradingmom

    Since Mole posted a chart…on the hourly, look at the triangle

  • BKXtoZERO

    is that technical analysis? he he he

  • Richard Foster

    On Wednesday this week Peter Brandt made a webinar presentation about why most novice speculators are looking in the wrong places.

    IMO when a man like Peter Brandt give his time and ideas it’s worth listening. His record of trading classical charting patterns first described in Richard Schabacker’s 1930’s book is quite extraordinary and shames many of the supposedly great traders and long term value investors.

    The webinar chimes well with the content here at Evil Speculator, so much so that it could have been given by Mole and Scott, (except for the lack of expletives).

    Worth and hour of anyones time I believe – it can be downloaded here:
    http://67.19.221.114./webinars/2015-10-28 15.00 Session 1 Why 80 of novice speculators.mp4

    The sound quality is rather poor and there is a short section at the beginning with no sound.

    As a side note, Brandt’s latest book is well worth a look too.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    “The webinar chimes well with the content here at Evil Speculator, so much so that it could have been given by Mole and Scott, (except for the lack of expletives).”

    What can I say – I’m catering to a millennial audience. That’s a compliment if I ever heard one though. Suffice to say that we are standing on the shoulders of giants.

  • Richard Foster

    Look out for the cameo of John Carter… which confirms what I always thought of him and his type.

  • Scott Phillips

    I really like the mercenary trader guys he works with, who are like a macro/fundamental version of Mole and I.

    I particularly like that they are poker players from Vegas looking to transfer their skills in a focused practice way.

  • Scott Phillips

    It’s important to not throw the baby out with the bathwater on TA, and also to understand WHY some TA works and some doesn’t.

    This “triangle” is really a spike and channel market on a 60 min timeframe, which is is a market where a lot of bulls got spooked into buying on the big move up recently, and it has NOT attracted fresh bulls into the market.

    The market has now become a channel (spike and channel), which is evidence of a weakening bull move. Failures of strong bull moves tend to be violent. If this move fails it should produce a tradeable move in the down direction

  • Scott Phillips

    Grateful that we can be of assistance :-)

  • BKXtoZERO

    I have wondered for a while now, if I could create a system that looks for obvious Elliott Wave patterns and then do the opposite. In my years watching I am thinking this could be an edge. This winter after I get my house done, or done enough……. I am going to start trying to find some kind of an edge and test it as best I can.

  • BKXtoZERO

    sadly, I’ve thought about this now and then for years, that if I REVERSED every trade from 2003-2008 period, that I would be hugely successful and that my interpretation of EW was so bad it was actually a tradable edge in reverse. There. I said it.

  • Scott Phillips

    Actually that’s an illusion like everything else to do with EW.

    The facts about EW are not in dispute…. corrective price action looks different to impulsive, wave 4’s are choppy, price action is fractal, etc.

    It is the conclusions that are drawn… that price is predictable, that are completely baseless.

    IMO whatever good there is to be had from wave theory is undone by it’s tendency to make you believe you know what happens next. Comfortability with uncertainty is a very desirable state for a successful trader.

  • Scott Phillips

    Could work, but there are way easier systems for you to build :-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    IF you like the song please re-tweet and stuff – those guys are working hard to get the word out. I think they’re going to be huge.

  • mugabe

    interesting

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

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