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Limbo Tape
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Limbo Tape

by The MoleJune 15, 2017

Limbo tape – it’s what I call the annoying volatile sideways churn devoid of technical context we’ve been experiencing across the board since the beginning of June which has pushed retail into an early summer identity crisis. You may recall that it’s not the first time I’m talking about limbo tape and it probably won’t be the last. Now this may be a good time to once more remind everyone that we as retail traders have one principal advantage over fund managers or institutional participants such as trade desks or system operators.

We do not have to trade unless we want to or perceive the express need to risk our capital. Now given that the majority of our campaigns have run in circles over the past week we may again be well advised to claim that privilege.

2017-06-15_Zero

I know this is going to annoy the living daylight out of you but our technical evidence is all over the map right now. We’ve got a few bullish and a few bearish signals. Take the Zero for example (shown above) which has been pointing down quite a bit recently despite buyers jumping on every single significant dip – at least this far.

2017-06-15_spoos

The E-Mini has continued its slide overnight and does look like a nice dip buying opportunity. However given the recent short term gyrations I frankly have a hard time drawing a firm line in the sand here from which I could justify a long position.

2017-06-15_breadth

NYSE breadth is looking solid and we still seem to be in a somewhat volatile climbing phase. But if you look closer then you realize that recoveries usually breached the upper threshold rather quickly. It’s when that first climb proves to be more strenuous we may wind up with another leg lower. A good example of that is what happened in early summer of 2015. The normal pattern is a quick recovery above the upper threshold followed by the appearance of a divergent signal which eventually dips back below it (and thus gives us a bearish signal).

2017-06-15_SPX_breadth

A less pronounced situation on the SPX breadth chart. Here we seem to be climbing more smoothly and as long as the signal doesn’t start to look divergent we should be okay. However then there’s this:

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Campaign Updates

2017-06-15_soybeans_update

I’ve kept our campaign updates for last today. My soybeans campaign has touched my stop at break/even which may be as well since we’re rolling over tomorrow and I’m expecting an increase in volatility until open interest settles into the new front month.

2017-06-15_EURUSD

EUR/USD barely scraped my stop – I guess this is not my lucky week. I’m actually surprised it survived the FOMC announcement yesterday but follow up selling overnight sealed the deal. As you probably are aware, I am not too sad to see a drop in the EUR as the current medium term trend had it pointing straight at a 1.15 target range. That one is not yet off the table unless the EUR/USD continues lower and breaches through 1.11. I’d love to tell myself that this is exactly what’s going to happen but frankly don’t see any compelling reasons why it should, at least for now. The current bullish trend remains valid until the recent spike low near 1.11 has been breached.

P.S.: Did I mention that I hate summer? And it’s not even summer yet 


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • OJuice

    That was a decent spike low on copper late yesterday. I got my eye on it again this morning as well. Hopeful it shows some signs of life.

    Mole, whats the name of the game that the picture in the header is from?

  • ridingwaves

    anyone looking at gold long around here?

  • OJuice

    I’m interested, but, I’ll need to see it firm up a bit. Everything on the hourly is still pointing down so it’s too risky for me.

  • OJuice

    Nice divergence building on the zero. Might be a decent buy signal at some point this morning.

  • ridingwaves

    that 1252 touch overnight was damn close to 1250 support cluster…maybe a little move under 1248 to sweep stops at 1250 would make it very appealing…

  • OJuice

    If/when it reverses, it will make for a very nice longer term potential.

  • Yoda

    yes

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    depends on the window.

    long term, sure.
    (how long would it take to pop up $100?)
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/327208c402cebce1255d6344a25ee248a8002c2da1512b96d7a44183f7837585.png

    short term, don’t like the dollar strengthening.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Damn it – I knew Windows Update would put that stupid window right in the smack center.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I think it’s a bit premature honestly. Let’s give it a bit more time.

  • ridingwaves

    I think the dollar hits resistance at 97.80 area

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It’s called Limbo.

  • OJuice

    Thanks.

  • OJuice

    That’s fair. I’m not wild on anything involving /ES lately to be honest.

  • ridingwaves

    silver on the other hand looks like 16 handle in the cards

  • OJuice

    It was looking great the other day. Then full blown rug pull.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    And who could blame you 😉

  • Darkthirty

    ES pump doesn’t seem to be working, indexes are out of alignment…….

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Support line on the Zero was breached. This better revert > the 0 mark or we may see a sell-off into the close.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e520b555d3180c0b8ae7fa6a55a917a333375d7ad39eac48d540eafe2575e593.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Maybe…but one Deep State Trump killer tool would be resumption of $ rally, and I believe yesterday’s message is $ supportive.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yesterday may be the closest thing to ringing the bell we ever get. Its fascinating, Fed caused a major depression by removing liquidity…and seems like it is willing to risk doing so again.

  • ridingwaves

    Bitcoin taking some top buyers down for a ride….goofballs, crypto currency-the new pet rocks for millennials…..suckers…

  • ridingwaves

    Yesterdays message hasn’t changed in 6 years…economic numbers are rolling over and were about 1-2 qtrs away from recession….too many red flags beginning to pop up…..
    https://ibb.co/c88Xq5

  • OzarkHillBilly

    A nice little island on the hourly. I hope no one was left stranded there. Best to swim away and take some losses rather than wait for the rescue boat, IMO.

  • Darkthirty

    Going to be interesting watching them extract themselves from the corner. Unless the game plan is to crash the system. Stats are fake, stawks are overvalued, main street is broke…….and the band played on

  • Mark Shinnick

    Interesting left-driven personal violence and property destruction going on, usually organized and paid for by the very Deep State players that I would not put past crashing things when they think have a good enough scapegoat. Went long miners for the time being.

  • Darkthirty

    I was raised poor, ate a lot of squirrel and rabbit. I’m still a “one shot-one kill” guy, working out to 300 yards now. Don’t believe these “folks” know what they’re asking for…………….

  • Mark Shinnick

    That’s bigtime accomplished marksmanship, Hathcock type level.
    Go 3Pers !

  • Mark Shinnick

    Excellent…let ’em have it !!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    yeah…”a squirrel behind every tree”

    https://img.memecdn.com/Sniper-Squirrel_o_92307.jpg

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    I thought it was my PC, but the Zero has a “Your computer will restart in 10 mins” window on the left!

  • Darkthirty

    Not with a 308

  • Darkthirty

    Skin em hot!

  • Mark Shinnick

    Personally, small game at 300 seem as impressive as it gets.

  • Darkthirty

    Small game stays in the brush mostly, 22 rimfire works well. Coyotes and chucks are long shots, FMJ wont mess up the pelt much.

  • BobbyLow

    Bullshit!

  • Mary
  • BobbyLow

    You guys are something else. There are left wing lunatics to go along with right wing lunatics. Just like the anti government nut job who shot Democratic US Representative Gabby Giffords in Arizona.

    The vitriol coming from both sides of the isle in congress has to stop motivating the crazy fringe from doing what they are capable of doing. It would also be nice to see our narsissistic president make an effort in this area as well.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    LOL, I made the mistake of clicking on the f..ing update reminder. Sorry – I hope it wasn’t too much of a bother.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    What are your tools?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Guys, check out BAH.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    No worries, not a bother at all. Just thought your PC might reboot in that 10 minute span and so the Zero would go probably go down, but it didnt!

  • Mark Shinnick

    This is all true. What angers me is the double standards from those without the capacity for personal responsibility; this makes reconciliation for the time being seem very unlikely until some catastrophe gets everyone to agree on a common enemy…world wars tend to do that.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hehe – at least I managed to keep you on your toes a little 😉

  • Darkthirty

    Primary is DPMS RFLR-REPR 308 / 7.62 with an IJK SF6 24x44e. Really want a thermal scope……..

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Looking at it..short candidate?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Jeezes – that’s some serious equipment, mate. I think you would probably benefit from a better scope though. But what do i know – it’s been ages since I fired a weapon. Over here in Spain I can’t even legally carry a fucking knife :(

    I always wanted to do this sniper course in Arizona. If you’re ever on the Weft Coast, check it out ;-

    http://sniperschool.com/sniper-courses-2/

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    This place came highly recommended by a friend. He was doing rifle training.

    https://www.frontsight.com

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    WOW. Worst. Website. EVER. LOL

    It’s like I just time traveled back to 1998 or something :-))

    Thanks for the tip but I think I’d go to Arizona and train with the pros. Always wanted to do sniper training as I have some strange obsession with long distance marksmanship…

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Yeah, shitty web site. My friend sent me some pix of the actual training, and that was good.

  • saltwaterdog

    It’s natural to hate being stopped out right before a position starts to work… how about the folks that sold Whole Foods (WFM) yesterday on Kroger’s terrible quarter – only to have Amazon show up today with a bid for the whole company

  • Tomcat

    KR is a top 10 position in my IRA. Unbelievable what AMZN is doing.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    My .22 is at the desk with me. I have a view of my vegetable garden, and I’m waiting on the wascally wabbit that has been making some morning raids lately.

  • Darkthirty

    Scopes are limiting close range, but your 2nd shot should be dead on if you get a dust kick.