Monday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

Quite some directional moves have been happening in the early hours. The E-Mini, that sneaky bugger, has been dancing on the 100-hour since the Sunday session open and then started to push higher.  Not that this is a big surprise to us, the signs of a continuation higher were on the horizon on Friday already. We now have established support on the 100-hour SMA and I am long with a stop below 1360. I’m a simple man – no reason to over complicate this.
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Well, I don’t have much this morning – most of the interesting stuff took off hours ago and even if you live on the East Coast you wouldn’t have caught it unless you’re suffering from insomnia. Here’s the EUR/AUD however – right at the Maginot Line. I am thinking short here with a stop above the SMA. Quite frankly I would prefer a bounce as that would be more easily defended. FWIW – isn’t it a well behaved contract? So directional! Compare that with the roller coaster moves we see over in Natgas or with the twisted gyrations cable is putting us through! Oh well – the crazy ones happen to rock in bed they say 😉

Speaking of difficult love interests – here’s the GBP/USD which is right back at the 25-hour SMA. Now my system tells me that I should take a trade but boy, looking at the past few sessions I am not very motivated. Maybe that’s why I should – it’s been a big shake out down here. Always fade your emotions.

Gold – what can I say – it would have been a better chart four hours ago. Heck, maybe we’ll get a retest in a day or two – if so then I want to be long the shiny stuff.



This entry was posted on Monday, November 19th, 2012 at 8:45 am. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

  • Darth_Gerb

    Bull/Bear/Neutral..T is for Thanksgiving.

    speculative T.

  • bdoone

    INTC: Intel halted…hmmmm?

  • Darth_Gerb
  • Skynard

    Hehehe, /SB on fire!

  • ronebadger

    JBTFD  (when THAT happens…)

  • Tronacate

    Long GC from yesterday :)

  • ronebadger

    VIX below BB already!  I know…it’s a long day ahead

  • newbfxtrader

    Yeah. So far so good.

  • Skynard

    /ES 1400 a given:)

  • newbfxtrader

    May be a good low for commodities.

  • ridingwaves

    The XLF chart you posted a couple days ago kind of foresaw this ramp…bounced off the same place…this push up via financials…

  • Skynard

    This market is going to tear up the shorts now. Can hardly wait for 1500-1550 area. Taking half off on /SB already. Had no idea it would rocket!

  • Schwerepunkt

    My chart shows VIX still above the lower 20-day BB.

  • ridingwaves

    it could get ugly for shorts real quick with new greek tranche and fiscal cliff love fest news…..

  • Darth_Gerb

    purely accidental.
    the price REFUSED to touch 15.00 on the weekly. (that could have been a hint).

    but more importantly, the RSI was the indicator to watch. (it stayed above 50)

  • Skynard

    Don’t trade the news mate, nor should you:)

    You really think that a tiny country like Greece matters?

  • Skynard

    Loading back up, full pos /ES at VWAP. Buy point:)

  • BobbyLow

    Crude is bubbling right now.  Plus 4 out of 5 of my currency pairs held over the weekend are doing well.  Not a bad start for the week.  

    Other than that, I must say that I have no expectations for this market other than continued manic depressive behavior.  

    Not that there’s anything wrong with that.  :)

  • Pug

    As for the GBP/USD, why take a long trade until the daily NLBL at 1.5914 is decisively breached? Went short at 1.5910 and will flip it on a breach.

  • Darth_Gerb
  • Tronacate

    Ignore the zero div with the TDA????

  • newbfxtrader

    Don’t have  a divergence at the bottom but I am not gonna argue with the train now!

  • molecool

    Pug – read the intro of this post – these are very short term setups which can be extended into MT positions if they pan out. But usually they only last a few hours or a day or two at most.

  • molecool

    Moderate trend day – I am not feeling lucky.

  • Pug

    Very true, point taken. I felt that if I went long with your setup (which is in the money by the way), I would have limited upside because of the NLBL. I guess you would take the long and hope for the breach, and if it didn’t happen then exit with a small loss.

  • Skynard


  • Joe_Jones

    Not particularly active this week. I have a 1/4 position long in silver miner (HL) and the rest in cash. I don’t really fancy turkey week for trading. SPX 200 d sma seems to be providing a decent resistance today.

  • catracho

    DOW daily..if it rhymes bears beware

  • ridingwaves
  • Pug

    Mole, thanks for the short-term setup on the EUR/AUD. Long at 1.2282 and took half profits at the hourly 25 MA, letting the rest ride with a stop at break-even. I am learning to trust your Maginot Line (esp. when it is moving in the direction of the trade), and I like the hourly 25 MA as an inflection point with some leeway of course. Stops are always difficult to decide, but each to his own on stops I suppose.

  • molecool

    ¨°º¤  S H A K E   N ¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º° B A K E !“°º¤ø„¸

  • molecool

    I wish I knew a perfect way to choose and defend those stops but I don’t. It all depends on where you go in, how exposed you are, your risk tolerance, time frame, target, etc. Hey, nobody ever said this game is easy!

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