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650 Or Bust
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650 Or Bust

by The MoleFebruary 27, 2009

UPDATE 9:19am EST: I just got up and checked my ES futures chart, which at the time of me writing this is trading at 734. Even if you factor in the PREM I expect the SPX to open beneath its November 21 low of 741.02.

UPDATE 9:36pm EST: November lows have been breached. Get ready to take partial profits as I expect us to push into Minor 4 of (5) in the near future – could be today, could be tomorrow but it’s good to take some of it off the table.

The gates of hell are open for business. Hey, mouth breathers – remember how I promised you on September 18 that my revenge would be cruel and merciless? I was NOT kidding.

YOU LOSE!

UPDATE 9:45am EST: Okay, you guys knew this one was coming:

It’s going to get extra evil in the lair today. Now seriously – time to post a chart to keep you rats happy:

This officially takes out that damn triangle scenario – RIP. Yes yes – we knew that much but in EWT this is the official confirmation. I expect us to retest the 741 level once more before we complete {v} of 3 of (5).

UPDATE 10:00am EST: What really excited me this morning actually is that Silver is staying put:

Gold has retraced a tiny bit but is also not running to breach 1000. This confirms to me that precious metals have topped. I have not lost a dime on those Silver puts this morning – sweet.

UPDATE 10:08am EST: I just reloaded a little bit on the 741 retest. Puts were cheap and after this morning’s boost to my portfolio this is just play money πŸ™‚


About The Author
The Mole

Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.

  • v8muscle

    I was tempted to take profits, wait for the bounce to 760 and reload my shorts but I think that option is off the table at this point. Holdin strong over the weekend!

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    I seriously want to kick myself for not keeping my /NQ short from 1180. Oh well!

    I am long /YG right now. Let’s push this baby over $1,000 now. Come on β€œyou can do it.”

  • Barcode

    I am currently thinking this is 5 of 3 so wave 4 then wave 5 down to 645ish.

    End of month plus a lunar value of 127(>120) which can coincide with a reversal plus a SOX warning (see //quantifiableedges.blogspot.com)

    Watch your back and good luck everyone.

  • alphahorn

    Prechter says sub 600!

  • molecool

    When/where did he say that?

  • BalaB

    Nearing S2 on /ES (730)

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    BOT SPY JUN 09 60 PUT @2.44

  • alphahorn

    I read it on another site, sorry bout that, but it was an interchange between someone who subscribes who posted just that his projection for this leg is sub 600

  • katzo7

    He is SOOOOO EVIL.

  • alphahorn

    the thread now says Prechter says it may reach 600-650 – my apologies

  • LostIllini

    To my fellow Faz holders…. I present to you 26 seconds of happiness.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wcW_Ygs6hm0

  • Keirsten

    Ah…. cuz I subscribe and I was going to have to go back and re-read all his missives. Thought I was losing my mind!? Oh that's right, I already HAVE lost my mind. πŸ™‚

  • beer_to_whiz

    per Mole's advice above. I closed my April SPY Puts in one account. Still holding in other…

  • http://www.srsfinance.com SRSFinance

    He may be right this time, but Prechter has been calling for an apocalypse since the 80s.

  • Glen Quagmire

    still early but not the catastrophe expected

  • molecool

    I'm actually a very nice person…. in theory.

  • thetruthishardtofind

    You guys are sooooo gay.

  • molecool

    Be VERY careful when you make these statements. Prechter is one of the few guys I respect out there and I know everything he says. Thus, if you throw numbers out of your hat I will call you on it.

  • slartybardfast

    Hey Alpha, I'm a subscriber and I believe he said that ideally, S&P would end up IN the 600s (not sub 600). Cheers.

  • beer_to_whiz

    by the way sitting on 50% cash waiting to reload short. Just gotta figure out when…

  • http://www.investingwithoptions.com/ steveplace

    I'm online talking about stocks right now:

    http://www.ustream.tv/channel/investingwithoptions

  • jigdaddy

    gapfill for jigdaddy so he can reload, since he is a retard for selling at EOD yesterday???

  • Mikey

    Mole…you thinking 745 tops?

  • v8muscle

    how are we only down 1.5% after that news?

    yes Virginia, there is a PPT

  • standard_and_poor

    closed ES daytrade from last morning and closed out 10% of puts.

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    Mole,

    what's your take on Gold? should I stay long or get out and short?

  • Pone

    It always seems like te S&P Futures alway overshotsactual open positions. It looks like someone is looking for bargains. When will this run it's course. That ugly GDP has to sink in sometime.

  • alphahorn

    that was not my intention, but appreciate the opportunity to set the record straight, so thanks for calling me on it

  • Vardoger

    That's how I like to wake up. Looking to cover the bulk of my shorts around ~722 /es FWIW. Anyone else have any downside targets?

  • Keirsten

    Don't have time to post it now, but yes… plenty of program buys kicked in right out of the gate this morning.

  • v8muscle

    bear flag on 1 min spx?

  • rose2797

    Erik : How far do u think Xlf will retrace. Looks like FAZ has given up all the gains

  • PongaGirlRIP

    So are we… Mole, ban for spam?

  • beer_to_whiz

    closed my FAZ Puts for 30% gain, I way damn well reload later today …

  • Barcode

    645 would be too good an area for the fabled 50% rally which would take us to 960, an area I don't think will be surpassed on a monthly closing basis for a long time.

    If this rally does come to pass by the autumn the 200 day EMA would be at that area as well as the 200 month EMA, so a mega resistance area.

    The longer that the indices are under the 200 month EMA the worse this bear could become.
    The long-term charts for the major Eoropean indices and US look very grim.

    Long term targets are one thing but how we get there is another, mini bullish and bearish phases.

  • molecool

    Gold and Silver might get a little boost today and until we complete wave (5) on the SPX. Please understand that I am holding July puts, so this is a long term play for me.

  • standard_and_poor

    expect more damage in financials, still holding

  • ZigZag

    Today is a day to add to shorts on any move higher. Fridays aren't crash days IMO..

  • http://www.twitter.com/TraderTamas TraderTamas

    He's not spam.

  • v8muscle

    pipe dreams at this point brotha. Citi is about to fail, why in the world would we go to 960?

  • molecool

    I didn't get the schedule πŸ˜‰

  • PongaGirlRIP

    Whatever the case, I get shit for teasing mole, this guy shows up and says “Hey, why are you on Mole's blog? Come over to mine and talk here.” Pretty rude IMHO.

  • molecool

    That's really tough to say Milkey – 741, 745 or 760 – I don't have a crystal ball and thus need to resort to probabilities. I personally prefer to take some losses and get in a teeny bit too early instead of missing out on the entire drop (or push). Depends also on your trading system – this in itself is a big topic.

    But in a nutshell – I would be surprised to see a major snap back right here and now. Not impossible – but I would be surprised.

  • Mikey

    Appreciate your insight!

  • v8muscle

    PPT came early today. usually they lay off until 3PM

  • Pone

    never mind.

  • Molave Street Dwende

    Still holding SPY and XLF June puts, both far ITM (2-3x leverage). Stayed calm yesterday, and was suitably rewarded today. Holding to 620-680 region.

  • BalaB

    Man o' man. You give a dude props for his efforts and the jokers come out of the wood work.

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    Thanks Mole,

    I took my profit and now I am shorting it.

  • v8muscle

    I'm so sick of the PPT. For real this is retarded

  • ZigZag

    Oops, my schedule a page torn out..There was a Black Friday in 1869. πŸ™‚

  • Blind_Squirrel

    Remember:

    EVERY Permabull on the planet thinks this isTHE BOTTOM!!!

    Think this could bounce until mon tue

  • BalaB

    Bounced out of NQs. Going to 100% cash

  • Blind_Squirrel

    I don't think this is PPT.

    Fund mgrs. rolling out of financials into naz for EOM

  • molecool

    Don't be a wet blanket.

  • Pone

    ErikD -XLF – It looks like 8.00 is still very strong resistance over the past. We can go past here?

  • BalaB

    MOLE – Check your inbox from 2Sweeties

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    BOT UWM @12.2697

  • http://spnakr007.blogspot.com/ Steve

    welcome back! : )

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    What is 2Sweeties?

  • Erikd

    XLF is in the RELOAD ZONE http://screencast.com/t/QtndDezI
    buy FAZ with everything you have march 60 strike…….

  • BalaB
  • Douala

    ErikD

    I buy the etf FAZ out right … how high do you think it is headed for?

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    TY

  • beer_to_whiz

    back in with 30% of my IRA

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Dont fall in love with the upside

  • brokesailor

    Backed up the truck at 58

  • fuw

    How far do think xlf will go? Below 7? On a longer term graph it is looking very weak, but many buyers seem to be stepping in here (s&p double bottom etc).

  • Erikd

    90.00 very possible today , 180.00 by mar OPEX

  • BalaB

    actually no….it was a go short / exit longs notice at associated RL
    levels
    doesn't mean Tim is wrong….

  • Douala

    Not only are you “The Prophet”… you are My Man ! xxxooo

  • prozor7

    unfortunately I don't have any more money πŸ™‚
    with yours strategy 2-3 days ago enter in XLF and FAZ yesterday 8.4x ….

    0 help me a lot WHEN to enter
    thx

  • Erikd

    you will need to change your Avatar….

  • mtvernon

    Watching the 2min SPY chart, anyone playing the reload after the fifth wave completes around 75.30-75.40/ basically fill today's gap?

  • HardTimes

    I remember he said $4-$6 target on XLF over the next couple of weeks. Best to do the analysis on that and then figure out about where FAZ would be. From $8, that would be a 25% – 50% drop. Assuming it goes in a straight line, that's roughly a 75% – 150% gain on FAZ. That would put it at about $100 – $140. It likely won't go in a straight line so you will get some decay due to the “leverage trap”. Let me know if this looks wrong…

  • brokesailor

    LOL probably right. FAS/FAZ been very kind to me this month!

  • pricey
  • alphahorn

    spx looks like it has established 747 as a top

  • alphahorn

    nice observation yesterday by the way
    +1

  • Douala

    You made me laugh … I'll give up.. +1 for you ! πŸ™‚

  • alphahorn

    nice time to buy FAZ w/ 58 handle

  • OptionsRMe

    Banked serious coin on the FAZ this morning. Bought mucho FAZ PUTS yesterday and set a stop to sell if price went down too far, of course, but set a limit up stop too (at 30% above purchase). I was pleasantly surprised to see that good 'ol FAZzie ran up right be for the open, blowing past my 30% stop and sold them at 9:30:05 for a very nice gain. After the run up FAZ slide slowly down 7 points, but is coming back now.

    I wish I could say I did some wonderful chart study or counted Elliott waves on this trade, but I can't make that claim. This was a good dose of luck, and my thinking the Financials are way oversold and overpriced (all the banking problems are still there and going to get worse. Bulls running into bank stocks? Good luck with that.) I did figure PPT would pull something on this Friday, their favorite day, and they actually got up early today to do their dirty deeds (not done cheap!) Of course, us bears know this never works in the long run.

    I'm pulling for a run up. C'mon Bulls you can do it. Open up those investment accounts and load up long so I can reload again!

  • BalaB

    20 Years! From his photo, Erik looks like he's been alive for only 25 years

  • molecool

    NUOVO POSTO.

    Yeah, my Spanglish kicks ass…

  • Blind_Squirrel

    The Boyz, (SOL and VINNY) will do whatever they can to screw the most people!!!

    BWDIK

    holding long ES and long JY futures

  • alphahorn

    come back and talk to us on Tuesday

  • Vardoger

    Now that's good advertising with the gold!! This is retarded but I'm going back to sleep. I'll be dumping 65% at 723, 25% at 712, 10% at 690 if we can get there before wave 4.

  • katzo7

    It's getting ready to break down again.

  • Fujisan

    Here is my USD/JPY W4 and W5 target. This could still go higher from this point, but I am expecting a retracement.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/Fuji-san/folder

  • OptionsRMe

    Agreed, the FAZ is all I've been trading the past month. I'm going to have to get a bigger truck to backup!

  • Erikd

    43 years in the making

  • Erikd

    43 years in the making

  • Ruski

    Hey all,

    I was a long time lurker, great site, now I would like to contribute FWIW…

    This week US Treasury has issued 120 Billion NEW TREASURES, whith the total of 226 Billion. This level has not been seen since September – October 08. Remember what happend then….

    To buy this huge supply of paper, Primary Dealers need to have cash… so they sell stocks, commodities, etc (check out gold for this week).

    Coming Monday, there will be a cash settlement of 76 Billion US for those treasures, these money have to come from somewhere…This does not promse a great ST future for stocks at least till Tuesday.

    Next week treasury supply will be “light” only about 50 billion scheduled so far, so it could mean that middle of next week we will get this wave up, everyone is expecting today.

    This info comes from http://www.Wallstreetexaminer.com (Lee Adler)

    GL with trading

    Coming Monday

  • katzo7

    NEW POST

  • Carpe Porkem

    Anyone see a gap fill (to the downside) on RGR? Looks a little toppy?

  • standard_and_poor

    Makes sense, 720 for me.

  • brokesailor

    Got a few on you. High miles and way back of rough book πŸ˜‰

  • Erikd

    she has seen my picture here and knows what i am holding…

  • standard_and_poor

    Thanks bud

  • Erikd

    XLF update to the trading plan coming into today… how is it looking http://screencast.com/t/YRQpH5ZS0
    all we do from here is now trade the plan…

  • jigdaddy

    where do you plan on covering, many poeple talking about bounce at 720 to start wave 4, will you just sit tight? or will unload take profits for the anticipated bounce and reload?

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    NEW POST

  • Erikd

    nothing wrong with trimming out intra-day and scalping, just make sure you always reload it short at the end of the day for the next 2 weeks.. the bullet is in the chamber and the hammer has been cocked today….

  • Lori

    Thanks.

  • jigdaddy

    just reloaded again πŸ™‚ love your setups!!

    ________________________________

  • standard_and_poor

    Next pullback will test your resolve, decide now whether or not you will with stand at least 2-3 weeks
    of chop chop. There may be a little more left on downside for spx, it's not worth it for me, I'll wait for
    financials and nasdaq to meet objectives on downside then I'm going home..

  • http://www.investingwithoptions.com/ steveplace

    Wasn't a blog, I was streaming video and stocks. You can watch and read at the same time.

    I only mentioned it b/c last time I did one a lot of rats liked it, so chill out woman.

  • jigdaddy

    you and atilla have the same view, he called for possible test of FAZ at 90 today…i think you did as well and his calling for 150 soon….

  • OptionsRMe

    Will do. I did make a mistake in the first post. Of course, I bought FAZ CALLS not PUTs yesterday. Over the past month I have been trading both FAZ CALLs and PUTs. Risky, volatile, yes. But so far it has worked out, and though the gains have been very good and sizable my positions are small compared to my entire portfolio. Someone posted they put 30% of their IRA on FAZ CALLs – that's way out of my league for riskiness! People say tell me I'm crazy, but not that crazy.

    Have a great weekend and let's hope are friends in Washington don't do something over the weekend to manipulate the market for Monday's open. (Still not sure if I'm going to any positions over the weekend.)

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    FAZ 90 means FAZ up 72% for the day… which means financials down 20 to 25% … that ain't happening today… Best case (for bears), we test the lows from last Friday… at 6.85.

    XLF at 6.85 is down 15% for the day… That should get FAZ up 45% for the day (approx), which puts FAZ at around $79. I dont think FAZ goes up much higher than that today.

  • jigdaddy

    thank you, btw good call on XLF yesterday, was that gut feeling or your TA?

    ________________________________

  • PongaGirlRIP

    -1 for sexist “woman”.

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    price volume action and supply-demand in the active trader section of ToS

  • jigdaddy

    oh nice…i can't wait to switch to TOS!!

    ________________________________

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    7.70 – 7.80 on XLF needs to be broken and then market will fall of its plate… We end the day with SPX near lows of the day and XLF near 7.15 – 7.2

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    I was tempted to take profits, wait for the bounce to 760 and reload my shorts but I think that option is off the table at this point. Holdin strong over the weekend!

  • http://www.tradingsign.com/ T. Waffle

    I seriously want to kick myself for not keeping my /NQ short from 1180. Oh well!

    I am long /YG right now. Let’s push this baby over $1,000 now. Come on β€œyou can do it.”

  • Barcode

    I am currently thinking this is 5 of 3 so wave 4 then wave 5 down to 645ish.

    End of month plus a lunar value of 127(>120) which can coincide with a reversal plus a SOX warning (see //quantifiableedges.blogspot.com)

    Watch your back and good luck everyone.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    Prechter says sub 600!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    When/where did he say that?

  • http://implicittrading.blogspot.com/ BalaB

    Nearing S2 on /ES (730)

    “The gates of hell are open for business. Hey, mouth breathers – remember how I promised you on September 18 that my revenge would be cruel and merciless? I was NOT kidding.”

    You're a man to be admired.

  • http://www.tradingsign.com/ T. Waffle

    BOT SPY JUN 09 60 PUT @2.44

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    I read it on another site, sorry bout that, but it was an interchange between someone who subscribes who posted just that his projection for this leg is sub 600

  • katzo7

    He is SOOOOO EVIL.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    the thread now says Prechter says it may reach 600-650 – my apologies

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    To my fellow Faz holders…. I present to you 26 seconds of happiness.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wcW_Ygs6hm0

  • Keirsten

    Ah…. cuz I subscribe and I was going to have to go back and re-read all his missives. Thought I was losing my mind!? Oh that's right, I already HAVE lost my mind. πŸ™‚

  • Chrys

    What do you think will be the news background to get us to 650? I bet its the next domino to fall: securitized credit card debt. I'm wondering what took it so long.

  • lester

    per Mole's advice above. I closed my April SPY Puts in one account. Still holding in other…

  • http://www.srsfinance.com SRSFinance

    He may be right this time, but Prechter has been calling for an apocalypse since the 80s.

  • Glen Quagmire

    still early but not the catastrophe expected

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Don't worry mate – you'll get to reload soon πŸ™‚

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I'm actually a very nice person…. in theory.

  • thetruthishardtofind

    You guys are sooooo gay.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Be VERY careful when you make these statements. Prechter is one of the few guys I respect out there and I know everything he says. Thus, if you throw numbers out of your hat I will call you on it.

  • slartybardfast

    Hey Alpha, I'm a subscriber and I believe he said that ideally, S&P would end up IN the 600s (not sub 600). Cheers.

  • lester

    by the way sitting on 50% cash waiting to reload short. Just gotta figure out when…

  • http://www.investingwithoptions.com/ steveplace

    I'm online talking about stocks right now:

    http://www.ustream.tv/channel/investingwithoptions

  • jigdaddy

    gapfill for jigdaddy so he can reload, since he is a retard for selling at EOD yesterday???

  • Mikey

    Mole…you thinking 745 tops?

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    how are we only down 1.5% after that news?

    yes Virginia, there is a PPT

  • standard_and_poor

    closed ES daytrade from last morning and closed out 10% of puts.

  • http://www.tradingsign.com/ T. Waffle

    Mole,

    what's your take on Gold? should I stay long or get out and short?

  • Pone

    It always seems like te S&P Futures alway overshotsactual open positions. It looks like someone is looking for bargains. When will this run it's course. That ugly GDP has to sink in sometime.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    that was not my intention, but appreciate the opportunity to set the record straight, so thanks for calling me on it

  • Vardoger

    That's how I like to wake up. Looking to cover the bulk of my shorts around ~722 /es FWIW. Anyone else have any downside targets?

  • Keirsten

    Don't have time to post it now, but yes… plenty of program buys kicked in right out of the gate this morning.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    bear flag on 1 min spx?

    played out nicely and just broke to the downside

  • rose2797

    Erik : How far do u think Xlf will retrace. Looks like FAZ has given up all the gains

  • TroyMcClureRIP

    So are we… Mole, ban for spam?

  • lester

    closed my FAZ Puts for 30% gain, I way damn well reload later today …

  • Barcode

    645 would be too good an area for the fabled 50% rally which would take us to 960, an area I don't think will be surpassed on a monthly closing basis for a long time.

    If this rally does come to pass by the autumn the 200 day EMA would be at that area as well as the 200 month EMA, so a mega resistance area.

    The longer that the indices are under the 200 month EMA the worse this bear could become.
    The long-term charts for the major Eoropean indices and US look very grim.

    Long term targets are one thing but how we get there is another, mini bullish and bearish phases.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Gold and Silver might get a little boost today and until we complete wave (5) on the SPX. Please understand that I am holding July puts, so this is a long term play for me.

  • standard_and_poor

    expect more damage in financials, still holding

  • ZigZag

    Today is a day to add to shorts on any move higher. Fridays aren't crash days IMO..

  • TraderTamas

    He's not spam.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    pipe dreams at this point brotha. Citi is about to fail, why in the world would we go to 960?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I didn't get the schedule πŸ˜‰

  • TroyMcClureRIP

    Whatever the case, I get shit for teasing mole, this guy shows up and says “Hey, why are you on Mole's blog? Come over to mine and talk here.” Pretty rude IMHO.

  • Pone

    XLF is 7.90 to 7.80 channel- it looks like it is favoring the bottom now.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That's really tough to say Milkey – 741, 745 or 760 – I don't have a crystal ball and thus need to resort to probabilities. I personally prefer to take some losses and get in a teeny bit too early instead of missing out on the entire drop (or push). Depends also on your trading system – this in itself is a big topic.

    But in a nutshell – I would be surprised to see a major snap back right here and now. Not impossible – but I would be surprised.

  • Mikey

    Appreciate your insight!

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    PPT came early today. usually they lay off until 3PM

  • Pone

    never mind.

  • Molave Street Dwende

    Still holding SPY and XLF June puts, both far ITM (2-3x leverage). Stayed calm yesterday, and was suitably rewarded today. Holding to 620-680 region.

  • http://implicittrading.blogspot.com/ BalaB

    Man o' man. You give a dude props for his efforts and the jokers come out of the wood work.

  • http://www.tradingsign.com/ T. Waffle

    Thanks Mole,

    I took my profit and now I am shorting it.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    I'm so sick of the PPT. For real this is retarded

  • ZigZag

    Oops, my schedule a page torn out..There was a Black Friday in 1869. πŸ™‚

  • Blind_Squirrel

    Remember:

    EVERY Permabull on the planet thinks this isTHE BOTTOM!!!

    Think this could bounce until mon tue

  • http://implicittrading.blogspot.com/ BalaB

    Bounced out of NQs. Going to 100% cash

  • Blind_Squirrel

    I don't think this is PPT.

    Fund mgrs. rolling out of financials into naz and strong blue chips for EOM

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Don't be a wet blanket.

  • Pone

    ErikD -XLF – It looks like 8.00 is still very strong resistance over the past. We can go past here?

  • http://implicittrading.blogspot.com/ BalaB

    MOLE – Check your inbox from 2Sweeties

  • http://www.tradingsign.com/ T. Waffle

    BOT UWM @12.2697

  • Steve

    welcome back! : )

  • http://www.tradingsign.com/ T. Waffle

    What is 2Sweeties?

  • Erikd

    XLF is in the RELOAD ZONE http://screencast.com/t/QtndDezI
    buy FAZ with everything you have march 60 strike…….

  • bergs

    must of been to the plus side as Tim bought a half a mill on russel

  • http://implicittrading.blogspot.com/ BalaB
  • Douala

    ErikD

    I buy the etf FAZ out right … how high do you think it is headed for?

  • http://www.tradingsign.com/ T. Waffle

    TY

  • lester

    back in with 30% of my IRA

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Dont fall in love with the upside

  • brokesailor

    Backed up the truck at 58

  • Vendrell

    I'm about to subscribe to 2sweeties' Retracement Levels program. Which program did most people go with? The $29.95 or the $34.95 one?

    I trade SPY e-minis only.

  • fuw

    How far do think xlf will go? Below 7? On a longer term graph it is looking very weak, but many buyers seem to be stepping in here (s&p double bottom etc).

  • Erikd

    90.00 very possible today , 180.00 by mar OPEX

  • http://implicittrading.blogspot.com/ BalaB

    actually no….it was a go short / exit longs notice at associated RL
    levels
    doesn't mean Tim is wrong….

  • Douala

    Not only are you “The Prophet”… you are My Man ! xxxooo

  • prozor7

    unfortunately I don't have any more money πŸ™‚
    with yours strategy 2-3 days ago enter in XLF and FAZ yesterday 8.4x ….

    0 help me a lot WHEN to enter
    thx

  • http://implicittrading.blogspot.com/ BalaB

    I've found great benefit in SPX (directly correlated to the ES) with the commentary.

    I actually receive all of them (not that I use every single one all but I really like what 2Sweeties is doing and want to help support his efforts)

  • Erikd

    you will need to change your Avatar….

  • http://www.tradingsign.com/ T. Waffle

    High five. I have to get back to my fave game call Options heheheh.

    I will also add at the EOD

  • Captain Obvious

    Watching the 2min SPY chart, anyone playing the reload after the fifth wave completes around 75.30-75.40/ basically fill today's gap?

  • HardTimes

    I remember he said $4-$6 target on XLF over the next couple of weeks. Best to do your technical analysis on that and then figure out about where FAZ would be. From $8, that would be a 25% – 50% drop. Assuming it goes in a straight line, that's roughly a 75% – 150% gain on FAZ. That would put it at about $100 – $140. It likely won't go in a straight line so you will get some decay due to the “leverage trap”. Let me know if this looks wrong…

  • jacksoo

    ditto

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    Erik gettin the love atta boy

  • brokesailor

    LOL probably right. FAS/FAZ been very kind to me this month!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    1+ πŸ™‚

  • pricey
  • brokesailor

    By the by Erikd, re: your mis-spent youth….20+ yrs in the car biz here ; )

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    spx looks like it has established 747 as a top

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    nice observation yesterday by the way
    +1

  • Douala

    You made me laugh … I'll give up.. +1 for you ! πŸ™‚

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    nice time to buy FAZ w/ 58 handle

  • OptionsRMe

    Banked serious coin on the FAZ this morning. Bought mucho FAZ PUTS yesterday and set a stop to sell if price went down too far, of course, but set a limit up stop too (at 30% above purchase). I was pleasantly surprised to see that good 'ol FAZzie ran up right be for the open, blowing past my 30% stop and sold them at 9:30:05 for a very nice gain. After the run up FAZ slide slowly down 7 points, but is coming back now.

    I wish I could say I did some wonderful chart study or counted Elliott waves on this trade, but I can't make that claim. This was a good dose of luck, and my thinking the Financials are way oversold and overpriced (all the banking problems are still there and going to get worse. Bulls running into bank stocks? Good luck with that.) I did figure PPT would pull something on this Friday, their favorite day, and they actually got up early today to do their dirty deeds (not done cheap!) Of course, us bears know this never works in the long run.

    I'm pulling for a run up. C'mon Bulls you can do it. Open up those investment accounts and load up long so I can reload again!

  • http://implicittrading.blogspot.com/ BalaB

    20 Years! From his photo, Erik looks like he's been alive for only 25 years

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    NUOVO POSTO.

    Yeah, my Spanglish kicks ass…

  • Blind_Squirrel

    The Boyz, (SOL and VINNY) will do whatever they can to screw the most people!!!

    BWDIK

    holding long ES and long JY futures

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    come back and talk to us on Tuesday

  • Vardoger

    Now that's good advertising with the gold!! This is retarded but I'm going back to sleep. I'll be dumping 65% at 723, 25% at 712, 10% at 690 if we can get there before wave 4.

  • katzo7

    It's getting ready to break down again.

  • Fujisan

    Here is my USD/JPY W4 and W5 target. This could still go higher from this point, but I am expecting a retracement.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/Fuji-san/folder

  • OptionsRMe

    Agreed, the FAZ is all I've been trading the past month. I'm going to have to get a bigger truck to backup!

  • Erikd

    43 years in the making

  • Ruski

    Hey all,

    I was a long time lurker, great site, now I would like to contribute FWIW…

    This week US Treasury has issued 120 Billion NEW TREASURES, whith the total of 226 Billion. This level has not been seen since September – October 08. Remember what happend then….

    To buy this huge supply of paper, Primary Dealers need to have cash… so they sell stocks, commodities, etc (check out gold for this week).

    Coming Monday, there will be a cash settlement of 76 Billion US for those treasures, these money have to come from somewhere…This does not promse a great ST future for stocks at least till Tuesday.

    Next week treasury supply will be “light” only about 50 billion scheduled so far, so it could mean that middle of next week we will get this wave up, everyone is expecting today.

    This info comes from http://www.Wallstreetexaminer.com (Lee Adler)

    GL with trading

    Coming Monday

  • katzo7

    NEW POST

  • AporkalypseNow

    Anyone see a gap fill (to the downside) on RGR? Looks a little toppy?

  • standard_and_poor

    Makes sense, 720 for me.

  • brokesailor

    Got a few on you. High miles and way back of rough book πŸ˜‰

  • Erikd

    she has seen my picture here and knows what i am holding…

  • standard_and_poor

    Thanks bud

  • Erikd

    XLF update to the trading plan coming into today… how is it looking http://screencast.com/t/YRQpH5ZS0
    all we do from here is now trade the plan…

  • jigdaddy

    where do you plan on covering, many poeple talking about bounce at 720 to start wave 4, will you just sit tight? or will unload take profits for the anticipated bounce and reload?

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    NEW POST

  • Erikd

    nothing wrong with trimming out intra-day and scalping, just make sure you always reload it short at the end of the day for the next 2 weeks.. the bullet is in the chamber and the hammer has been cocked today….

  • Lori

    Thanks.

  • jigdaddy

    just reloaded again πŸ™‚ love your setups!!

    ________________________________

  • standard_and_poor

    Next pullback will test your resolve, decide now whether or not you will with stand at least 2-3 weeks
    of chop chop. There may be a little more left on downside for spx, it's not worth it for me, I'll wait for
    financials and nasdaq to meet objectives on downside then I'm going home..

  • http://www.investingwithoptions.com/ steveplace

    Wasn't a blog, I was streaming video and stocks. You can watch and read at the same time.

    I only mentioned it b/c last time I did one a lot of rats liked it, so chill out woman.

  • jigdaddy

    you and atilla have the same view, he called for possible test of FAZ at 90 today…i think you did as well and his calling for 150 soon….

  • OptionsRMe

    Will do. I did make a mistake in the first post. Of course, I bought FAZ CALLS not PUTs yesterday. Over the past month I have been trading both FAZ CALLs and PUTs. Risky, volatile, yes. But so far it has worked out, and though the gains have been very good and sizable my positions are small compared to my entire portfolio. Someone posted they put 30% of their IRA on FAZ CALLs – that's way out of my league for riskiness! People say tell me I'm crazy, but not that crazy.

    Have a great weekend and let's hope are friends in Washington don't do something over the weekend to manipulate the market for Monday's open. (Still not sure if I'm going to any positions over the weekend.)

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    FAZ 90 means FAZ up 72% for the day… which means financials down 20 to 25% … that ain't happening today… Best case (for bears), we test the lows from last Friday… at 6.85.

    XLF at 6.85 is down 15% for the day… That should get FAZ up 45% for the day (approx), which puts FAZ at around $79. I dont think FAZ goes up much higher than that today.

  • jigdaddy

    thank you, btw good call on XLF yesterday, was that gut feeling or your TA?

    ________________________________

  • TroyMcClureRIP

    -1 for sexist “woman”.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    price volume action and supply-demand in the active trader section of ToS

  • jigdaddy

    oh nice…i can't wait to switch to TOS!!

    ________________________________

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    7.70 – 7.80 on XLF needs to be broken and then market will fall of its plate… We end the day with SPX near lows of the day and XLF near 7.15 – 7.2