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Return Of The Market Mole
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Return Of The Market Mole

by The MoleMarch 21, 2016

That’s right – the Mole is back! But this time it’s without any vengeance as I feel zen to the max after nearly two weeks of soul soothing silence on the beautiful island of Tenerife. Fortunately the journey back to Valencia was mostly uneventful; the exception being a plane full of Spaniards prepared to riot when they were told that they needed to remain in their seats until our plane had actually stopped at the gate. I humbly suggest that any airline operating within the Spanish peninsula equip their flight attendants with whips and cattle prods. Apparently verbal instructions issued by the pilot or flight crew are considered to be mere suggestions. May I add that the same seems to apply to traffic signs clearly indicating pedestrian zones, but let’s leave it at that.

2016-03-21_spoos

As you can imagine I have been itching to throw myself back into the swing of things. In my absence the legendary ‘Mole Put’ seems to have finally been put to rest as equities have happily continued their advance higher. Sorry guys, I would have loved to get paid to travel but it seems that this racket has already been cornered by Rick Steves. Plus we all know that my travel reports would most likely come out a bit less PG-13 due to decades of excessive moral corruption.

Anyway, fortunately my spoos long campaign is doing well and hasn’t required much meddling except that I flipped it to the June contract about a week ago. However that sweet ride may soon come to a quick end…

2016-03-21_NQ

Reason being is that the NQ is pushing into daily resistance and although it’s been a while since we touched the 100-day SMA I think this is a good opportunity for some monkey business.

2016-03-21_gold_trend_vol

I looked at gold today and noticed something interesting. We all know that each symbol has it’s own characteristics in terms of volatility, trending behavior, participation, seasonality, alpha/beta etc. Some of that is related to the type of market participants that trade, some of it is fundamental, and some of it is inherent (e.g. whether it’s an ETF/ETN, futures, forex, stocks, bonds).

It seems to me that gold in particular is going through distinct alternating phases: We have sideways periods in which we get swings of varying magnitude – those are great for swing traders who are good at assessing short term momentum. After that we often see pretty pronounced trending periods in which both opposing shorts and longs are being squeezed to the max. As you can see we are currently in a sideways period and based on the volatility profile it may be a while until we see trending behavior again.

2016-03-21_USDJPY

Alright, let’s do some setups. The USD/JPY is a long for me here as I love the daily panel and it appears that the hourly is trying to produce a floor. Yes, I am aware that this looks way too good to be true, so I’m keeping my position size small. Early days…

2016-03-21_ZB

Bonds – wow – what a sell off today and I’m eagerly anticipating a touch of the 160 plus change region so that we can consider taking out a long position. Actually it wouldn’t be unusual to see 160 being tested as there’s almost always a fake out before it decides on a direction.

More below the fold for my intrepid (and most patient) subs:

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Spring Time For Market Megalomaniacs

Yesterday marked the beginning of spring, those annoying Las Fallas are over, and temperatures are on the rise across the Norther hemisphere. I’m feeling pumped and look forward to plenty of laughs and flashing gren in our trading accounts throughout the coming quarter. Hope to see constructive discourse and a plethora of charting action in the comment section. Let’s bank some coin, people!!


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • wandering196

    Everyone needs a holiday here and there but it is good to see you back

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Thanks! Good to be back :-)

  • wandering196

    5 minute zero signal is interesting

  • Yoda

    Looks like Mole’s travelling prophecy needs to be amended to Mole’s back at Lair prophecy. Seriously now, welcome back Mole. Let’s bank some coins.

  • BKXtoZERO

    + TVIX 5.37

  • BKXtoZERO

    No vacation for me, I have to live through your vacation pictures, so I had a nice time. Thanks!

  • BKXtoZERO

    great description of gold this morning. thanks.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Welcome Back Captain.

    biggest moves are band-to-band.
    I am the one who Dings
    [2YR – SPX weekly]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p20081594313

  • ridingwaves

    Liquidity issues in the $USD repo market are near 2008 levels…screaming dollar shortage…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    If I curve fit October VIX, using the 20 cycle.
    13 VIX *is* possible.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p45613619519

  • BKXtoZERO

    more always possible, historically low end of range here.

  • Mark Shinnick

    TVIX already past the 8th consecutive down day… very interestingly rare.

  • ridingwaves

    I’m convinced that the Mole equities drain on vacation trade is now a crowded trade and the opposite will play out….when he gets home, the market sells off is the new meme….

  • ridingwaves

    the volume today in that symbol is telling an unfolding story..

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, exceptionally high.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Is that spike down to 4.5 at 10:07 real or is that one of those market ques to the insiders?

  • Ronebadger

    dont see it on my chart

  • Mark Shinnick

    Always very curious about those things…its not official…but when I see them I always get the feeling its in some way no mistake….almost like a harbinger…so I note them because they disappear from the record.

  • ridingwaves

    10 million share trade in 3 blocks I believe…yes it’s real…

  • randomuser6789

    If you read Flash Boys you could imagine how the HFT shops basically ate a large block order for lunch! Yes it is real. Yes, some hedge fund was heavily front-run on their position.

  • ridingwaves

    something very weird as it shows in my 52 wk low but not in daily on trading stream..like a reverse flash crash in volatility…it might just be the whale short closing position and going long via another hedgy etc…

  • ridingwaves

    should have looked upstream before last reply below….I think we are on same boat…

  • Mark Shinnick

    …yet this trade would represent a whole normal day’s volume….and someone sold those shares…and non of it officially posted. Reminds me of the idea that truth is stranger than fiction…because fiction must be believable. I wish we all could really understand these things….or maybe we really do ;/

  • ridingwaves

    is it a harbinger if a blow off top push to hit that number with VIX hitting new lows? or is it tied into move down? that is a crazy move no matter…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes….would so blow out most of the bears, I imagine.
    If this really is a bear market rally, at least we know its doing what it has to do.

  • ridingwaves

    so tired of this BS….where was the help for homeowners underwater the last 7 decades….moral hazard done large…Mel Watt- I knew he was a pigmen of the highest dirty ex congress critters he is…

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fannie-freddie-to-cut-mortgage-balances-for-many-2016-03-21

  • Kishore Kumar

    It is heading towards the bottom of the bear channel, maybe 2.0. Never forget that you are dealing with BS, a reverse ETF.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    “The United States has 86,985,872 homeowners as of 2012”
    50K eligible. math calculation…..

    .000574 = .057%

    drop in the ocean my friend. Political theater.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    8 out of 10 low volume readings on positive days has led to short term weakness (in yellow boxes). Still sitting in VXX although close to being stopped out. Not clear at all if a pullback happens whether it will be a 1-2 day event or something longer.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    8 out of 10 low volume readings on positive days has led to short term weakness (in yellow boxes). Still sitting in VXX although close to being stopped out. Not clear at all if a pullback happens whether it will be a 1-2 day event or something longer..

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    forgot chart

  • Billabong

    Interesting day. Noticed on Friday PM secondary miners started moving up and large cap started flattening out with selling … continued today. Also, large cap oil companies selling today with CL still going up …. hmmm? XOM gave me a sell signal this afternoon…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Churn churn churn….

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Slow here today – has everyone forgotten about the Mole in the past two weeks?

  • Yoda

    Boring tape today, not much to say. Waiting for action.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    True that.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    However, boring tape is a great time to work on your trading skills and to compare notes.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    no, Thanks again for the vacation. I had a great time looking at pictures and reading your stories. I feel like I had a vacation.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Still here. Not much scalping to do lately. Boring tape. I need fireworks.

  • Yoda

    As always you are correct. I need to work on my emotions and a bad habit in entering into a contrarian trade to early when the tape is in an up-trend. I find the tape easier to trade when it corrects or enter a bear trend: somehow the tape feels a bit more “real” when it points South because emotions are more predominant (Pain from losses > Pleasure from gain). Over the years I found that it is easier to pick up a significant market bottom than a top (with zero help of course).

  • Yoda

    Now that FOMC and Quadruple Witching are over, we should be ready for some action, perhaps not much this week though.

  • Round we go

    maybe DB is going to crash before Glencore, to be the new Lehman.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-21/its-not-over-yet-moodys-put-deutsche-bank-review-downgrades

  • BKXtoZERO

    Here is a blast from the past. Feb 5th………….. How things change.

  • Kishore Kumar

    The most important thing that is real about TVIX is that starting from 112,350 (adjusted after reverse splits) it has dropped by an average of 1560 per month over 72 months. Why would anyone ever go long on this piece of s…, even for part of a day? It is just a bait for gamblers.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Damn it – had I known that I may have added another week!!

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Oh no no no no…. that’s an affliction shared by many retail traders – to NOT let your winners run.

    Look, just trail those fuckers and let the tape take you out of your campaign. Don’t second guess it – you will never be able to nail a high – it’s extremely rare. I’m pretty good at tape reading and I have developed a bunch of fancy tools telling me about trend, volatility, momo, etc. And still I only get it right about half the time.

    Print yourself a little sign for your wall:

    The trend the trend is your best friend. It is done as soon as it’s done and not a candle earlier 😉

    Yes, I’m returned from Tenerife a veritable market poet.

  • Kevin Mcdonald

    Anyone see the Buy print…someone bought 10 million shares of TVIX at the close…

  • Yoda

    Thank you for those wise words Herr Brecht. It’s a work in progress for me and I am learning from my mistakes.

  • Yoda

    intesting that vix finished at the low today while the put to call ratio rose:
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p74461539548

  • MK Ultra

    it is definitely……………………..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Ronebadger

    Remember, don’t ever speak to anyone though your tennis racket…you’ll strain your voice…

  • ridingwaves

    RIP Europe…

  • Yoda

    Religion of Peace strikes again

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III