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Riding The Bull
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Riding The Bull

by The MoleJanuary 9, 2012

Yesterday’s post touched on trading psychology – a subject that I don’t get tired of repeating and which holds the essence of becoming a seasoned trader. You can read all the technical books on trading you want, in the end what usually stands in the way of consistent profits is your own emotional state of mind. Or in other words: We have met the enemy – and it is us!

If you are a sub then you know that I’ve been trying to hitch a ride on cocoa futures for a little while now. The beast has thrown me off several times and it’s clearly playing mind games with anyone trying to ride the big bull.

After getting stopped out twice now cocoa is back at its latest Net-Line Buy Level (NLBL) and you know what that means for the Mole. A long position – near 2141 – again expecting to be stopped out by more whipsaw ahead. By the way – if you missed it I recommend you wait for a retest of that NLBL. Given recent history (and the fact that I am long) odds are we’re probably going to get it.

The only resistance I see looming ahead is the upper 25-day BB line – we ought to be good until around 2230. If it manages to crawl above that then our next stop should be near 2500 where it’ll run into its 100-day SMA. Reduce positions at that point or trade a short term reversal.

Now if I get stopped out again – well, as I’ve stated before – that’s the price of admission. Either you play technical setups or you play your emotions. Your trading account cannot accommodate both at the same time.

Cheers,

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    whoa, really dead in here.
    cocoa, I’ll know you get it.
    just Hold On

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1VcT0B8I7A 

  • Joe_Jones

    Thanks for the trendline on the zero Mole

  • Anonymous

    Whoops, my timing on my last comment couldn’t be worse! If anybody cares to read it I would be very interested in any comments on the paragraph starting “question”. Has this happened to you guys? Is it common? TIA.

  • Anonymous

    copy it here man..:)

  • Fearless

    I replied to you on the previous thread.

    And yes, the options order fill issue is actually pretty common in the industry. I’ve encountered that myself, although with enough complaints and threats to take your business elsewhere, your broker may smarten up (hint hint).

  • Anonymous

    there’s a rising trendline as well…..now what?

  • Joe_Jones

    we have an upside breach. Now, let us see if it is real before jumping to conclusion

  • Anonymous

    Yes I saw the reply, thanks. Also glad to hear you encountered the problem too. I guess they aren’t out just to screw me … they wanna screw everybody! And I thought I was special.

    Yeah they do fix the problem after I mention it. Even though it’s a small (money) amount per share it is big as a % of my anticipated profits.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Fearless – this is one of my favorite write ups on OTM covered calls:

    http://www.callwriter.com/newsletter/why-out-of-the-money-calls.htm

    Perhaps this will explain the setup to fledgling option monkeys 🙂

  • Anonymous

    Howdy Mole!

    So here’s an opportunity for me to get a feel for the ol’ net lines. Buying the retest of the NLBL is clear enough, but what are some good ideas for stop placement?  Some % of ATR perhaps?  I’ve seen you suggest “a few ticks below the net line,” but the lack of objectivity there frightens me off, and for a reason related to trading psychology:  I want to be able to put my stop in a place where if it gets tagged I feel not a twinge of regret – *especially* if it then reverses and makes good.  I need to put that stop where I know I’m right to bail, no matter what happens next.

    So a discretionary stop placement would completely mess with my head, and that keeps me out of these trades.  That could just mean that I’m not psychological suited to this approach, and if so that’s all right – I’ll can still enjoy watching you and the rats profit. 

  • Joe_Jones

    Fake out it seems

  • Anonymous

    opex period is prev month’s opex friday to this month’s opex friday? and we never had 4.5% to 5.5% gain in last 41 years???? wow

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, the ole’ placing your stop question. My general answer would be ‘it depends on the trade’. ATR is a good starting point, yes – but some symbols move so fast that it will take you out of your comfort zone quickly. Cocoa is around 85 handles right now and that may not work for you. What I usually like to do is to get positioned near support levels, which makes placing stops a lot easier. For instance a NLBL that’s been retested near a 100-day SMA. Easy – just set your stop a few handles below that SMA – even 1/2 ATR may be good enough. Yes, there is always a chance of getting touched – that’s part of trading.

    Finally, instead of fretting over stops the trick that may work for you may be taking out a very small position and then pyramiding up as the trade goes your way. Use Bernie’s Pyramid Calculator (BPC in the menu bar) if you’re math challenged. If you start with a small position then you can afford a pretty generous stop. Plus you won’t be as shell shocked if a symbol like for instance copper tries to shake you off before a big move.

    Did I leave anything out?

  • Joe_Jones

    I bet you we finish the day with a doji daily candle

  • Fearless

    Yes, close to close.

    Bear in mind this is only January opex period distribution for the past 41 years, hence only 41 data points.

    If you plot the DJIA daily percentage gains distribution since January 2000, you WILL get a perfect Gaussian distribution curve. During this period, we’ve had two great crashes of the 21st century, yet the curve did not deviate one bit from a normal distribution pattern. Furthermore, 2%+ daily moves in either direction is already outside the normal range. Try to limit those single-day big tickets to a minimum. Steady wins the race.

  • Anonymous

    Awesome response.  Thanks Mole.

    The pyramid approach range a bell for me – it’s something I hadn’t considered, it’s logical, and I think it’ll suit my personality.  That’s going to be the first avenue I explore.

    If you don’t mind, I’ll lay another question on you, this time about execution.  The setup I liked most coming into today was OJ’s double inside day.  Now I wasn’t going to be able to be at the computer for the open, because I was traveling, so I put in my order as a stop limit instead of the usual stop.  I wanted a little protection against the (admittedly unlikely) Monday gap up and reverse.  Problem was OJ isn’t all that liquid, and I didn’t get filled.  Had I been filled I would’ve come home to a 2R win exited and in the bank.

    Did I execute that incorrectly?  If I made a mistake, no biggie, lesson learned.  If I did the right thing, even better. 

    Either way I’m going to be especially mindful tonight when I go over my charts.  I know enough about human nature to know that this is precisely the situation in which I’m going to be tempted to take a lower quality setup…

  • Joe_Jones
  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    SPY luv.

    http://i42.tinypic.com/1z2j9zc.png

    basically a follow the fib fan day.
    Max Lift tomorrow if I got the rings set correctly.
    maybe they will break the ceiling and just burst forth with glorious teen exuberance.

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    launch ready?

  • Anonymous

    check out the BB’s on the 30 minute chart on SPX, 
    then look at what happened when they tightened like this past last time on 12/30
    this time it seems like it may start from the upper

  • Anonymous

    I mean anyway I slice it the pair is a nice risk reward play. I’m just glad I have not looked at it till now..If ya know what I mean.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    nothing to say about usd/zar.
    flatter than Texas.

  • Anonymous

    Yeah I know. I have been bleeding all last week from multiple entries!

  • Joe_Jones

    Interesting Christmas lights on AUDJPY. Finish the day with an exhaustion?

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/d2aad8ee-6d59-4c66-b59b-f90154830bd3/2012-01-09_1553.png
    Yes, I think I should wait till it looks like a sucker play before I enter short.

  • Anonymous

    Nah. Buy the dips. Nowhere close to overbought.

  • Joe_Jones

    Mole, if you can, can you update us rats on your mmmrm indicator

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Well, the AUD/JPY really isn’t finished until Friday afternoon but on paper it’s possible. FYI – it’s testing its daily 25-day SMA.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I will if there’s a reading that gives us anything to trade on. Right now they’re in limbo.

  • Anonymous

    double inside candle sorta on SPX !

  • Joe_Jones

    Ok thanks

  • Anonymous

    Thanks for the link. I will have to read it more closely, but it seems clear this guy is looking at OTM buy-writes differently then I am. While I am always psychologically prepared to have a stock called away, I don’t think I ever wrote an OTM call hoping it would be called away. Why write a call if I think it will be over the strike price (by more then my premium) on op/ex? Maybe if the OTM call was at a strike that was 2 times my stop loss. Will have to re-read your link and give it some thought.

    It occurs to me that I have an ultra short fetish (wanna do it with midgets?) and my option knowledge may be distorted as vega would generally work the opposite of what on would expect with ultra shorts.  

    Don’t ever do something because I said so, but the strategy I described on the last thread (ITM on ultra shorts) really works. If the ultra short skies I will move to delta one and I will be able to capture the entire time premium I sold, if it falls the volatility should go down (not to mention the over the weekend before op/ex time decay) and I will again capture some time value. I am also safe (well kinda) if it moves down a lot because the write is well in the money. The key is a popping VIX with a write below the ATR. It is very possible, with the right circumstances, to do a write 10% below the current price with around 1.50 in time value.

    I don’t mind being a “fledgling option monkey” so long as I can be an evil monkey. Evil yesss evil bwahahahahaha!

  • Joe_Jones

    just looking at what zerofx is saying

  • Anonymous

    Its new for me. But in an uptrend I would book profits if long then enter long again after a pulback. Thats what I meant.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Remember that was back in 2005 – it was a different market back then. I don’t blame you for playing vega and that is probably something I may be more interested in. If you could post an example of your recent setups I think it would go a long way to demonstrating your system/techniques to the rest of the rats. If you do don’t tack it on here – please add it to the top so it won’t be overlooked.

  • Anonymous

    Almost an inside day, but it could be considered as a Bearish Harami, though Friday’s candle is a bit short actually.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    “Why write a call if I think it will be over the strike price (by more then my premium) on op/ex? ”

    Simple – because you want to lock in future earnings now by collecting the premium. I dunno – maybe you’ve been diagnosed with terminal cancer and you won’t live to see those future profits 😉

    Seriously there are a myriad ways to play options and double that for ways to get stung in the process. I usually keep things simple stupid but I’m always open for other approaches.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Don’t trade if you can’t be around in person to properly execute. Simple.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I call this butt ass juice tape.

  • Anonymous

    Sounds like a kick ass way to lose money if not having skills like you.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Convict Scott – do you want to talk about today’s double inside candle on the SPX?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Inside day on my chart. What feed do you have?

  • Anonymous

    NFLX is up 41% already in Jan !

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ????????????????????????????????­??????????????

    D   A   I    L   Y      Z   E   R   O     H   A   S      B   E    E   N      U   P   D   A   T   E   D

    ????????????????????????????????­???????????????

  • Anonymous

    My Zero Alerts are arriving about 14 minutes later then expected. Mole any idea why? I’m using gmail.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Nope – you are right. TOS is probably off again. My DTN feed gives me 1281.99 for today vs. 128.184 for Friday.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Strangely happens to some people. Something to do with gray listing – I dunno why and I can’t get to anyone at fucking Google Mail to resolve it.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Never mind – it’s inconclusive. Data feeds are showing contradicting highs.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Did you try to put alerts@ (and my domain) into your contact list?

  • Anonymous

    I looked at the stockcharts.com data and they got .99 and .84, too. TOS actually says the same for me.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, apparently it’s only Prophet charts that are screwed up again.

  • Anonymous

    My ‘always’ freestockcharts.com agrees too:-)

    Anyone see any rising wedges, or do i need to change the prisms on my glasses?

  • Anonymous

    Yes I have. I am going to delete and then re-add to see if that helps at all.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    So far so good – if it continues down I’ll be out at 78.50.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    AUD/JPY ZeroFX trade: So far so good – if it continues down I’ll be out at 78.50.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Nah – that would not make a difference. Annoying as hell that is though. Maybe if we all send angry support requests to Google?

  • Anonymous

    I will send a message and let you know if they get back to me.

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/ae3ef11e-7e16-4238-92af-0f6463e82b2f/2012-01-09_1629.png
    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/5cc67a2e-c280-4096-8bdd-f50a296faeeb/2012-01-09_1628.png
    Now just hold on a damn second…It is quite obvious to anyone that these two things move in opposite direction. So if that is the case and since EUR/AUD made new lows could we finally see a break out in the SPX or is there a snap up in EUR/AUD and the red oval is still the hurdle that cannot be passed quite yet.

  • Anonymous

    Not sure when you sent the zfx alerts but is this happening w/ Trend Day alerts too?  I use gmail and got that this am at 7:17 pacific time.

  • Joe_Jones

    million bucks question

  • Anonymous
  • volar

    AD line strong FWIW.. but $NYMO getting up there

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    No, thats only a minute after it went out.

  • volar
  • Joe_Jones
  • Anonymous

    wait im confused..why are you nervous? would it not be normal expectancy for VXV to be higher than VIX, aka folks worried more about future than say one month from now, higher implied volatility?

  • Kudos

    Enjoying it to say the least. Getting nervous. My target is the gap and 100 day MA which are both around 117. Will likely cover my naked puts before earnings in two weeks. I like the puts versus outright buys, not advocating leverage. Since the options pays about 10% for February close to the money, I advocate selling a put rather than buying 100 shares. I will not be adding more to my position until we see how far the future retracement goes

  • volar

    we are outside of the STDEVs- and the seasonal move is for PAR- so that means sooner than latter VIX should rally- prob. means lower equities- seasonal strength is pretty much gone for now till mid- MAR

  • Anonymous

    actually it was my own stupidity. I did the simple task of looking that it was vxv/vix not vix/vxv. I didnt understand why we were nervous with it being high. I was like well damn even better. But now I see why it is the other way around, yes then if VIX does rise we may have a problem in equities. sorry I even asked without looking closely.

  • Anonymous

    ZFX alert from 5:35 got to me in 5 mins on gmail.

  • Anonymous

    Next time I do a trade like this I will let you know, but “system/techniques” sounds pretty high-falutin and a little over my pay grade! I will admit to having plans and evil schemes.
     
    All I do is try to get a buy/write where the underlying is say 50 and I sell next weeks 45c against it for around 6.50 (my cost 43.50) with time/vega/non-intrinsic value of 1.50. I enter on the Friday before op/ex and sell the next Monday. I only expect about .75-.80 of profit so I will abandon ship around 43.10 so my possible gains are double my possible loss.
     
    I have noticed (I am sure I am reinventing the wheel here) options close to the money have more time value. That’s the last thing I want to see when the underlying falls because all I am doing is trying to get the time. It could be 45 on the underlying with my calls trading at $2, + .50 “time” value and I am stopped out. 

    With calls on a short ETF (IMO) this phenomenon is diminished as the IV is likely also falling. When calls on a long ETF start to get a higher time value as they get closer to the strike it is exacerbated by what should be a raising IV. That is all I meant by vega (or IV would be more accurate) being the opposite for buy-writes on short ETFs. Of course when the short underlying goes up it’s IV may also be increasing, thus it may not go to delta one (i.e. all the time value is burned off for a “max win”) as soon as a call written on a long. So buy writes on ultra shorts won’t lose as fast, but they also won’t win as fast.

    So less a system and more an evil plot to deploy when the time is right.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Anonymous

    We purchased 1,600 pounds of C110 copper bar yesterday to half fill my received purchase order.   I’m leaving the other half for later expecting to buy lower.

  • Anonymous

    ZFX – this looks right about where Skynard would go short.  Skynard – you out there?

  • Anonymous

    Definitively some crazy signals from ZFX right now. This last signal is a dozy IMO and a tug of war. Short /ES & EURJPY.

  • Anonymous

    Havent seen him today. but yes i would too! careful only a scalp then i am long.

  • Anonymous

    Hello friend. I am joining you for a little while but then going long. usd needs a breather before next leg up.

  • Anonymous

    newb,

    Momentum may have shifted for ST based from daily SPX MACD and if it can remain above 1265 will re-position long. Otherwise still very short:)

  • Anonymous

    You got some balls! I want to see a dollar pullback before going long USD again. Its been a good ride past few months. Dont trade the ES much so dont care.

  • Anonymous
  • Fibz

    I’m not looking to go long EUR/AUD again until around 1.231. Becoming oversold intra-day, but still looks overbought until about the end of the week.

  • Anonymous

    cool..

  • Joe_Jones

    I have the Nasdaq in my sight.
    I have a feeling the earnings season won’t be that rosy.

  • Anonymous

    AUDJPY looks ripe

  • Joe_Jones

    Hi Mole. One zerofx alert is good for me.

  • Fibz
  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    positive divergences building…EURUSD and EURJPY…something to watch for

  • Anonymous

    CC on the move this morning.

  • spicestory

    /ES pass it daily NLBL 1280 and linger at 1288 – no sign of slowing down yet

  • http://realforexbroker.com/ forex broker

    Hello
    Admin,

    I see many forum people ask about forex information,

    Thanks.

  • http://realforexbroker.com/ forex broker reviews

    I like you writing style.

  • Anonymous

    Taking half of my AUD/JPY position off the table, ZFX isn’t looking too healthy. I’m completely out if it breaks the hourly NLSL.

  • Anonymous

    Gentlemen my thesis may be correct from yesterday EUR/AUD as broken even lower. We could break range here higher in SPX.

  • Anonymous
  • Fibz

    troll

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    dirty rats, my thesis of max lift appears to have arrived.
    (cough cough)
    😉

    just be aware that the ending of a large T is nigh.
    http://practicalt.blogspot.com/2012/01/little-more.html

  • Fibz

    been waiting to use this pic… lol.

  • Fearless

    Would be perfect if we’re at 8%+ opex period gain on or before this Friday, hehehe. That will make cheap lottery tickets feasible options (pun intended) for opex gain reversion strategy.

    There you have it – why I didn’t propose selling covered ITM calls – we have lift off. I was still more confident in the continuation (up) and selling OTM calls was a strategy that made more sense. With today’s gap up, it’s an opportunity to sell even more covered OTM calls, perhaps some covered ITM calls come Friday.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Anonymous

    This would certainly fit with the sentiment extreme in equities and possible Fibo time-ratios that point to a turning point in January or February.
    Also, have you ever considered a much larger T from the 1982 bottom to the 2000 top?

  • Fearless

    I think most people are confused with regards to my strategy with writing covered calls, ITM or OTM.

    First off, I’ve been saying for months that I believe the long term trend is still up, and I don’t have any evidence that suggests otherwise, yet. With this in mind, I still hold long stocks that I bought since 1080-1100, but I kept writing covered calls to pocket the premiums. My goal is NOT TO GET CALLED AWAY, while pocketing as much premium as possible. If the market does fall significantly, I have an automatic stop-loss on the long equities (it’s way above B/E already given the gains, dividends, and options premiums I collected). This requires a good math and probability/statistics skills, and to find a strike price that will collect the maximum premium at the time of writing the options, and to ensure that these calls will expire OTM.

    Obviously, if I start to find evidences that suggest we’re not going to make all time highs, I will go with a different strategy. Hope this clears things up for people reading my posts.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    and that’s what makes GG so dam nervous buying options.
    there might be some guy like you selling THEM!
    hence, I hang out here and EvilSpec.

  • Fearless

    Evil is GOOD 🙂 Mwahahaha…

  • Anonymous

    Thanks for the explanation Fearless. Appreciate the info.

  • Anonymous

    Here’s corn with rejection at the 100-day SMA and an RTV sell setup. Yesterday’s range was a bit too large, so the stop would be rather far away on a break of the daily low.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    haven’t considered 1982.
    T. Laundry has some stretching back to 1957 & 61, which expired 2007 & 2011

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..had a dream about corn last night.
    it’s going to be the standard of currency in the future.

  • Anonymous

    Copper with a similar formation plus a nice wedge.

  • Anonymous

    I was under the impression that PMs and ammo would serve in that capacity. At least that’s what the people over at ZH said after handing me my complimentary tin foil hat.

  • Anonymous

    OH GG you are the freaking greatest!! Wait wait and Japanese back to rice too!!

  • Anonymous

    haha!!

  • Anonymous

    Mole – when are you going to post your Forex broker recommendations?

  • Anonymous

    Is anyone amazed, or think it meaningful, that the ZLs have been pretty flat lately?   Comments?

  • Anonymous

    If I understand correctly, participation is one major aspect ZL shows. This makes sense given the currently low volume. The obvious interpretation would be that we are seeing a melt-up with a complete lack of strength backing it which in turn would make that move highly dubious.
    Sentiment is extremely bullish, cyclical forces are supporting a move lower and copper is on the edge right now. Also, there’s a volume hole lurking right above and I don’t see us breaking through 1300 without any real force behind that move.
    All in all, I think we will be some some meaningful downside in the near future and ZL seems to support that assumption.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    SLV breakout on the hourly..

    http://i40.tinypic.com/i6jlzq.png

  • Anonymous

    I’m with you, but I have no patience….I’m learning

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    Thanks for this. Now above the 10/27 high(intraday)

  • Anonymous

    Thanks Fibz too, I thank him for high lighting EUR/AUD. I started looking at the long term charts and every melt down in that pair as led to a break out in SPX. Now the only question is whether it holds.

  • Anonymous

    I don’t trust this move. Zero is telling us not to and we’ve basically reached both upper Bollingers on the SPX. I just took a small short position with a stop above the 25-week Bollinger at 1318.
    If it starts dropping in the next few days, I will scale into a bigger position. I expect a quick drop like last summer where it will be difficult to get into position otherwise.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Anonymous

    You are right. However, I think the downturn will be a shake out. SD is not telling me sucker move is not finished. I expect move higher first.

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    It might very well make a new high, but I expect heavy divergences on such a move. If they don’t show, I might very well get out of my position. On the other hand, there is a mountain of resistance ahead. The volume hole between 1296 and 1300 on the ES, then the two daily Bollingers right above and the weekly Bollinger at 1318. Weekly RSI also doesn’t support the new high so far, although it may be too early to pass judgement. A look at AUD/JPY on ZFX also isn’t too encouraging regarding the upside.

  • Fearless

    I think most people also lost sight of the fact that we had a confirmed RTV buy setup on the monthly chart, as Scott pointed on on the first trading day of the year. This is also why I wasn’t keen on betting a huge downside.

  • Anonymous

    Remarkable run-up in spx! But currencies no longer correlated?
    What about Prechters ‘wave to behold’ ?

  • Fibz

    I’m looking to go long EUR/AUD pretty soon here. ascending wedge on SPY, toppy AUD/JPY, EUR/AUD severely oversold…

  • Paleface

    Strange. SPY 1 min. Yellow cloud is $TICK, green line is $UVOL-$DVOL. Who will win?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Anonymous

    I hear he just issued a call to short the SPX.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Give me a few more days please – it’s coming.

  • Anonymous

    Yea its the AUD that concerns me in this whole equation. AUD/JPY and EUR/AUD, especially the EUR/AUD FIBZ has pointed out severely  oversold, EUR/AUD to me has given a new definition of sucker play. Really stinks I couldn’t convince myself and him back when he brought it up it was a massive sucker play. Especially so in daily charts. So in that in mind if a up move occurs in that pair, does SPX fall, or does it consolidate. 

  • Anonymous

    BTW, GOOG has been on the receiving end of some serious rape for the past few days: down to 620 from 670 since last Wednesday.
    Not sure how meaningful that is, but GOOG has been outperforming the tech sector (and most notably AAPL) since October. So, this sudden drop out of nowhere isn’t too bullish. ZNGA as one of the last high profile tech IPO’s last year is also down by a good margin from its original price. AMZN is also hanging in limbo right now.

  • Anonymous

    Me either. But “huge” is so relative lol with the moves we have seen this past two years.

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/a0814fc1-7bc4-4aaf-976c-f32374518ff5/2012-01-10_1130.png
    I have enter one lot long in this pair. mini lot was stopped out. So I have a unusual setup here long EUR/AUD short but only a mini lot in USD/ZAR.

  • Anonymous

    Not again 🙂 Mind you he has to be right sometime

  • Anonymous

    I just took another look at my charts and I agree. EUR/AUD looks severely oversold and there are RSI divergences on all time frames and we even pushed outside both lower Bollingers on the weekly chart. I don’t thing this situation is sustainable.
    EUR/USD on the other hand is also severely oversold given the CoT numbers from last week.
    AUD/JPY looks week on the hourly and is currently battling the lower diagonal it broke on Friday. I think we need to recapture that line by the end of the day or more downside for AUD (and upside for the Euro) would become possible. A lower AUD/JPY of course would usually mean that the SPX follows. On the other hand, a higher Euro should mean the SPX rises. But the Euro has been decoupled for weeks now and AUD/JPY has been the better proxy for a quite a while hence I’m inclined to trust that correlation more than the defunct Euro correlation. Copper might tip us off as to what comes next, but it still looks undecided.
    Another possibility would be for AUD/JPY and the SPX to fall while the Euro consolidates to work off the oversold condition and recouple with the SPX.

  • Anonymous

    Time for my obligatory tin foil hat research link:

    http://berkeley.intel-research.net/arahimi/helmet/

  • Anonymous

    Exactly the way I was thinking. “Another possibility would be for AUD/JPY and the SPX to fall while the Euro consolidates to work off the oversold condition and recouple with the SPX.”

  • Anonymous

    bookmarked! 😀

  • Anonymous
  • http://www.investingcontrarian.com fresbee

    2012: Recession is in the air
    http://fnn24.com/?p=34538

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Joe_Jones

    Last buyer bought?

  • Fibz

    nice. i actually don’t use fibs that often, but these charts of your’s are making me think i probably should.

  • Anonymous

    yes.

  • Anonymous

    High average trade size could indicate distribution by the big players. Having the Smart Money dumping is certainly not bullish.

  • Anonymous

    Kinda Bear flag 5 min.

  • Anonymous

    Am I mistaken or is ZFX frozen?

  • Anonymous

    Where can someone without a futures trading account get that info?

  • TwinTurboRX7

    I think Cocoa is above its 25d BB now.

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/db3db926-41e3-4506-81c3-0237b56e3158/2012-01-10_1351.png
    here is the deal. if it stays above blue line move sucker move, if not well i do not need to explain.

  • Anonymous

    I don’t understand what you mean by “sucker move”. Can you explain?

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  • Anonymous

    I use 1 standard devaiton on the BBs. I like playing moves outside those regions. While most think something is oversold or overbought it continues outside of bands. I stop a trade once the price actions moves away to far from out side BB band.