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Don’t Hate The Playa!
27

Don’t Hate The Playa!

by The MoleJanuary 8, 2012

That’s right – tonight I’m going all old school on you foolz! Look busy y’all – Mole’s in the house!

Seriously now – you haven’t experienced excruciating pain until you’ve listened to some Kraut with a German accent trying to rap. It’s no laughing matter, so let’s just not go there. Besides, as you guys know I’m not big on rap – the old Mole likes it hard core electronic Euro trash style, he enjoys some heavy metal (Rammstein baby), and even some selected Classical (Bach simply rocks). But with some rare exceptions I stay away from rap – just not my thing. One of those few exceptions is Ice T as he’s old school and goes way back. I just can’t help but give him Mole’s seal of approval (not that he would care).

Anyway, the clip above talks about ‘the game’ and I think if Ice T would try his luck at trading he would probably catch on really quick. Because the game on the street is a bit like the game on Wall Street. Except the playaz wear suits and maybe there are less drive by shootings but in essence it’s a doggy-dog world and you only survive if you are either connected, ruthless, cunning, or can command some serious muscle. Combine some of the aforementioned and you call yourself a playa.

If you squint hard and take a few steps back then you can basically see ‘the game’ at work right on this chart. For that juicy inverse H&S has most retail schmucks pee in their concerted pants in eager anticipation. Little do they know that the market is usually a cruel mistress that eats hapless retail field mice for dessert. The box I highlighted is the cluster of tape we got since we touched that H&S neckline at the very end of the year. Retail was expecting a break out per their textbook example – which usually ignores the fact that there’s often a preceding fake out move. Plus the odds aren’t that strong on H&S formations to begin with.

See it’s all about psychology – as usual. If you went long at 1200 then you probably don’t give a rat’s rectum about a breach here. You made your money and are holding some lottery tickets for a potential move into what could amount to 1300. Sweet move if you can get it – if not – well, better luck next time. That’s how the playa thinks. The retail field mouse however went long around 1250 and is not liking the action right now. You may have heard the expression of ‘weak hands’ – that’s them. Give them a drop to 1240 and they will jump ship in droves – it’s like pressing a button.

The game is ALL about reeling in weak hands – it’s about dangling carrots. And then to do the exact opposite. And even worse – once the playa takes their money the tape usually reverses just to add insult to injury. Thank you sir, can I have another? See, you simply cannot act like a victim when trading the tape – you have to start thinking like a predator. It’s not about being paranoid – that’s counter productive. It’s about anticipating the odds of a prospective move. Since I feel generous here’s another old expression for you – I got that one from my trend trading days:

What everyone knows is not worth knowing!

Makes sense – I hope. If everyone and their mother expects that H&S to resolve then it probably won’t. You’re not the only guy/gal with a fancy charting package and a trading account, you know. That doesn’t mean the H&S formation is completely useless of course. Remember, a few days ago I expected a shake out here – sometimes that shake out comes in the form of a reversal and sometimes it’s a sideways correction. Whatever gets those retail schmucks to make emotional trading decisions. Those are the most profitable ones – for market makers 😉

Hey, as Ice T says: Don’t hate the playa – hate the game!

I have a few more charts below for my subs – please step into my badly decorated evil lair:


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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Anonymous

    Nice FX setups. Thx mole.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    RAMMSTEIN!  (GG  chants)

  • Anonymous

    re Rammstein at the Whisky … was that you waving a bottle at the stage…? 

  • Joe_Jones

    If Bucky fails to keep the rising momentum it’s risk on again. 
    The last 3 days SPX and USD were quite divergent. One eventually will catch up with the other.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&st=2011-09-01&en=(today)&id=p07163906541 

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    AMC,
    keep an eye on ZAR.
    http://i41.tinypic.com/21144rs.png

  • Fibz

    good way to describe it with dangling carrots and doing the exact opposite.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    carrots I hear are good for you.
    but statistically, Volar has dis-proven that.

    http://a4.ec-images.myspacecdn.com/images01/91/bdac8c87da92e11b1de863b73c2d1c05/l.jpg

  • Fibz

    lol… too many carbohydrates.

  • Anonymous

    Anyone else think NYMO and NYAD looking divergent? AAII for this week is 49% Bullish, 17%(!) Bearish, with a spread pretty far outside the norm. Coupled with the SPX volume hole this noob thinks downside looks more likely…

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Short to medium term maybe. But I think bucky has a good chance of doing its thing in 2012 – meaning getting to that monthly target I posted last week.

  • Anonymous

    Yea every pair lately I have picked as been a pain. No smooth sailing lately. But thank you very much for keeping a eye on it. Love ya man!

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    My NYMO Deluxe chart still looks pretty neutral.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That’s kind of what I’m saying – it’s not just picking your symbols. You also got to pick your markets. Timing is key and sometimes trading is easier than at other times.

  • Anonymous

    Yeah that one is only slightly divergent, NYAD is quite a bit more. FYI I’m looking at a 5 day SMA on NYAD. NYMO is raw but it looks a bit different than yours, you use an SMA?

  • Anonymous

    Maclellan divergence from oct. 27 high to Jan. 3rd high is interesting…kind of rare

  • Anonymous

    Yeah tell me about it. Been trying some longs for a scalp. Getting scalped by the markets!

  • Anonymous

    EUR/USD looks like a potential bottom on the hourly. At least we broke the expired NLBL at 1.2721. I’ll be going longon the pullback with a small position if the hourly NLSL at 1.2684 holds.

  • Anonymous

    taking the one lot off the table for a profit.

  • Anonymous

    Copper appears to be in the business of screwing over everyone. The inside day setup was triggered, but the immediate snap-back makes me think that this may have been a fake move. ES is flat so far, but AUD/JPY and EUR/USD look pretty bullish in the short term, so a break to the upside of 3.465 would seem like a good long opportunity.

  • Anonymous

    Something else I just noticed on the long-term chart for crude. Looks like we’re back to the 61.8 retracement of the 2008 top where the price was rejected once again, so this may be a pretty good shorting opportunity as long as that level isn’t broken or else we’d probably go to around 120.

  • Anonymous

    Corn looks like it may be good for a short. We have seen an Evening Star formation (with a weak third candle though), the loss of the 100-day SMA with a strong down day and appear to be retesting the high while so far being unable to overcome that 100-day SMA.
    First target zone would be 622 to 617 (50- and 25-day SMAs) with a potential for hitting the lower Bollinger at 565 (though the formation doesn’t look like it will make that new low). I think, one could either play this as a low probability trade with a tight stop directly above the 100-day SMA or wait for an RTV sell setup to be triggered which would have a greater chance of not being stopped out on a final spike higher.

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/015db5ac-1cc2-4914-9d56-cce44c93dcf4/2012-01-09_0755.png
    Thanks to Fibz I have been paying more attention to this pair. I like this pattern that has formed here. One mini lot long.

  • Anonymous

    EUR/USD battling with VWAP right now. A failure would probably lead to 1.2720 where our initial NLBL sparked the rally this morning. That level should not fall or more short-term downside would become probable, including a new low.

  • Anonymous

    not sure I see what you are saying.  got a picture?

  • Anonymous

    yes if it breaches the NLBL and 100 MBB at 3.54,
    if not it should stay in the weakening mode
    since the pop high on the first trading day of the year

  • Anonymous

    and it looks to me it triggered an rtv Sell today on the Daily

  • Fearless

    NEW POST!