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Shredding The Dollar
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Shredding The Dollar

by The MoleJune 5, 2017

I’m sure it hasn’t escaped your attention that the Dollar has been getting it on the chin lately. Just a few weeks ago I proposed that the Euro was about to break out of its recent floor pattern and accelerate higher. Unfortunately that perspective turned out to be correct and I have been watching my EUR/USD exchange rate degrade relentlessly over the past few weeks.  2017-06-05_dollar

But that inherently had a lot more to do with the Dollar than with a strengthening Euro per se. The chart above shows us a Dollar in a pretty classic falling pattern and I’m afraid there won’t be any stopping it until it touches about 94.5 or even 94 round.

2017-06-05_USD_PNF

The P&F chart is a bit less pessimistic as the current bearish price objective has its target marked at about 95.5. I hope that one turns out to be right but lacking any technical support levels below it’s quite possible that it’ll overshoot significantly.

federal_debt

Of course the reason for the Dollar squeeze is clear as the central bank’s QE put continues to elevate equities to effervescent price highs on a regular basis. For the record, I’m not complaining but just want to be clear we all understand what is driving the current run in equities, precious metals, and even bonds. By the way, does anyone know the Quandl key for a more high resolution perspective on Federal Reserve (and ECB) debt? Pointers would be appreciated.

2017-06-05_EURUSD_entry

Not surprisingly my setups today revolve around currencies. The EUR/USD will be a long for me assuming it drops a bit more toward 1.122, paints a spike low and then retests a little. I’d also like it to do my laundry, wash my car, and pick up the groceries. My apologies for being extra picky here but as you can tell we’ve been through a shake out period and it’s important that we maximize our chances. Which means seeing a short term low as opposed to anticipating one based on subjective measures.

2017-06-05_GBPUSD_setup

GBP/USD looks like it’s probably going to just take off and don’t look back. I guess three terrorist attacks in London over the past 3 months are considered bullish nowadays. By the way did anyone catch May’s address on Sunday morning? What a crock… absolutely meaningless pandering as usual. Anyway, as I have a flexible moral disposition I’ll bite but only if we see a retest to about 1.258.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • ridingwaves

    L CYTR .56

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s everyone?

  • ridingwaves

    excellent boss, here’s hoping your euro has a resting area, rate hike would be the stop to dollar slide…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Got the medical bill for Mrs. Gerbs colonoscopy.
    ..and I thought she got reamed.
    *ouch*. $$$

  • OJuice

    Great.

    Your USD/CAD trade gonna get some nice help from /CL I think.

  • BTrader

    Trading CL mostly with the nice movement lately.

  • ridingwaves

    last time gold was in this range-NUGT was 57…..re-balancing hell by the looks of it

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, still short miners.

  • Walt

    Sir Mole III – if you are not aware – all of these terror attacks are FAKE – staged events with an agenda – nobody dies – in this case the event was staged to effect the election to not leave the EU

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…and risk to the procedure to boot.

  • ridingwaves

    EXAS……see the ticker description…..you’ll get why its moving north

  • BobbyLow

    The Miners have been a tough trade over the past few days and I’ve been sitting on my hands. My hourly chart looks pretty much like a bunch of rolling hills and valleys with no sustainable trend over the past week. Might be good for a range trader but not for me. I’m going on vacation for a few days so maybe they’ll be more tradable after I get back

  • Scott Phillips

    Serious mate, stop being a fuckwit. There are hundreds of eyewitness accounts dozens of facebook live feeds.

    Friends of people on my Facebook feed were there.

    You Sir, are the dumbest person on the Internet today, and I visited the comment section at zerohedge

  • Scott Phillips

    Remember the Exas guy a few years ago with his net worth entirely in it? Wonder if be hung on

  • ridingwaves

    my vacation and time away was good for me on trading front so far…..:)

  • ridingwaves

    I hope so….there were a couple vicious bear attacks….one where it took it down to his entry price….I bought in at 13 and 20….sold 1/2 at 33…think it has a little left in it…

  • BobbyLow

    Oh oh, sounds like our president’s been tweeting again. . .

    According to the “Alternate” Universe, everything is fake. I’m looking out the window right now and it looks like it’s sunny out but it’s probably sunny because of a fake sun that the MSM put up to cover the clouds and rain.

    How do I know? The National Enquirer told me so.

  • Tomcat

    We need an automatic ANTI-TROLL feature. But don’t be shocked to know that there are many of these fools.

  • Walt

    What I did is express my opinion. We all have a right to our own opinion but not to our own “facts”. Ever notice that all the pictures of these events seldom show any BLOOD? People die but no one bleeds of in the rare instance the “flake” blood is bright RED – real blood turns purple quickly? The one picture that is going viral and shows this is a fake event is the guy smiling while “running for his life” with his BEER in his hand. No reason to not take your beer with you when you are afraid of losing your life . Party on!

  • Tomcat

    Speaking of owning losses, oh boy have I been taking a spanking on USD. Am to the point that if it my last lot hits the stop, I would be barely break even and all my profits from earlier this year in USD would be wiped away. The show must go on I guess.

  • Tomcat

    You sir, have won the fcktard of the day prize. Congrats!

    Can I get you any fries with that beer?

  • Skidmarkalot

    Dear God!!!! Who left the door to the out house open?

  • BobbyLow

    I think we can learn more from our losses than from our wins especially on a trade that could possibly wipe out profits from previous trades of the same vehicle. Was this trade based on technicals? Fundamentals? Were there any mistakes made? Were stops too wide? What could have been done better etc.

    This is not to be critical of what you did because I’m willing to bet that we’ve all had trades like this at one time or another. But I think it’s helpful to know what if anything went wrong so we can be less likely to allow the same thing to happen again.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    it’s a laggard.
    joined at the hip with NAZ, using a bunjee cord.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EXAS&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p41898459473

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    OUCH!!!!

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Correlation does not equal causation. The reason why they don’t show any blood after domestic attacks is because the media is extremely PC over here in Europe and doesn’t want to offend a certain portion of their electorate (you can guess which one).

    And don’t tell me that these terrorist attacks are staged. My father-in-laws’s best friend got killed at the Bataclan last year – died in a horrific way and most of the details of what really happened in there have been suppressed by the MSM. Seriously mate, you need a mental reset. I’m not saying that what is being reported has any resemblance to the truth. But that should not give you license to jump on spurious conspiracy theories.

    Reminds me of those idiots who continue to claim that the Americans never landed on the moon in 1969. All you have to do is to buy a cheap telescope and then look at the landing sites – the flag and the landing module are still there!

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well we have moderators – they usually snap into action if someone posting abusive or insulting messages. Not sure where we should draw the line regarding idiocy however – LOL :-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    One of the reasons I moved to Spain.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Rate hikes are going to be marginal at best. The Fed and Trump want a weak Dollar, and as such I was anticipating this.

  • Mary

    There is nothing wrong with having an opinion. However, you stated it as if it were a fact. Go back and read what you wrote and tell us the part that identifies it as an opinion. We’ll wait.

  • ridingwaves

    maybe around rate hike time is when your number above is hit and Trump is doing a good job of twittering the dollar down…

  • BobbyLow

    Slow in here today so I guess I’ll ramble on about another trading cliche that I believe to be of great importance. This one is “sometimes the best trade is the one you don’t take”.

    One of my main trading faults in the past had been being too eager to get into a trade. This caused too many marginal entries to join the loss column. I’ve tried to overcome this problem and it appears to be working. These past few days have been a prime example.

    I’m not talking about becoming so gun shy as to become afflicted with trade paralysis but looking at it as if trade don’t fit, then don’t commit. :)

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Do you have the same effect on the market as Mole does when he travels? If so, please let us know your travel dates :-)

  • BobbyLow

    LOL

    Mole’s a heavy hitter so when he travels there’s a large volume hole and the market reacts. I’m not even a fly speck on the radar screen so when I leave no one cares. :)

  • Mark Shinnick

    Covered that short earlier so that one worked out but the range contraction is essentially noise making in the shorter time periods.

  • ridingwaves

    a drop to 2400 would find support….felt weird to type that…

  • Walt

    I corrected to a point – I didn’t mean to imply all killing are fake but I believe a lot of them are. I have a good friend in the Orlando Police Department. The Orlando event was a total joke – if you look up the picture of over 20 police officers who were present when they held the first news conference – he is the one laughing behind the spokes person.

    Please check out this web site http://www.wellaware1.com – Ed, aka “the Dallas Gold Bug” has exposed a lot of what is happening. Have an open mind and at least take a look of some of his work. You probably will not believe what he shows at first but if you have an open mind and are willing to question what we have been told vs. what Ed has found it will change your life.

    By the way, I really appreciate your emails and find them very informative as well. It was great to see your have figured out how the stock market is and has been manipulated – why not the “NEWS” as well? Most people and investors aren’t aware the the market is rigged as well.

  • Walt

    Mary,
    All I ask is to keep an open mind and at least consider that everything is not as it appears in this world. I hope you believe that you shouldn’t believe “everything” the Main Stream News says and shows you. I believe we are being seriously manipulated.

    Please visit this web site, http://www.wellaware1.com – and see what you have not been seeing or being showed by the MSM. Most of what Ed exposes is very hard to dispute but most people are not willing to even try to see both sides. I can promise you, I spend a lot of time looking at both sides with a very open mind and my eyes are seeing things “they” don’t want me or you to see.

    PS: Thanks for sharing your opinion with me – it means a lot to me to understand what is going on with the world today. Your opinion is very valuable to me even though I don’t agree with it.

  • Mary

    I have a very open mind, Walt, and I was raised in the era of “Question Authority” and I do. My only point was that if you express an opinion that is only an opinion and try to present it as a fact, you will instantly lose credibility with many people. It is hard to regain it once lost.

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    He still didn’t answer your initial question. He made a statement as fact, when it is not. He also stated that ALL of these terror attacks are fake, then waffles and states he didn’t mean that. A logical fallacy if ever there was one.

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Go wash your hands, you’ll feel better. New research shows it doesn’t matter if you use hot or cold water.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/40117011

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I have to control this on my end as well due to my blogging duties. Obviously I want to find cool setups for you guys and in particular for the subs. But if there’s not much then I have to fight the urge to make compromises. It’s a daily battle – fortunately usually my stubborn and perfectionist nature saves the day 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Walt

    Thanks for your reply Mary – I too have a very open and objective mind and I research as much detail as I can find before even attempting to make an opinion. What I keep finding is the same MO – people killed with stories following that don’t add up to me. Posted below are descriptions of the supposed 3 suspects whose background information should have alerted authorities to their activities and prevented this if it really took place. It is my understanding that London is one of the most secure and safest cities in the world. So please explain why everyone seems to believe that these 3 could have ever gotten away with this.

    http://www.blacklistednews.com/London_Bridge_terrorist_was_allowed_to_work_at_Westminster_station_despite_known_jihadist_views/58967/0/38/38/Y/M.html