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Silver Back On The Table
36

Silver Back On The Table

by The MoleJanuary 27, 2017

Earlier this week we attempted a long campaign in silver which however was stopped out shortly thereafter. After the ensuing downside a new entry opportunity appears to be unfolding now and should be ripe for the taking in the near future. But let’s not rush into things, shall we?

2017-01-27_silver

First up it’s Friday and I’m not in the habit of entering precious metals campaigns late in the week, especially with a short running contract like silver. Further albeit being tempting the formation is still looking a bit immature and IMO would benefit from a drop to 16.6 (where we have the 100-week SMA) or at least a spike low on the daily panel. But we’ll be sure to keep a close eye on this one. Despite the recent softness I believe that the medium to long term picture remains bullish as long as silver is able to hold 15.675.

2017-01-27_crude_update

Crude was posted as a long entry to my intrepid subs on Wednesday and thus far it’s behaving according to plan. In order for this one to get out of the gate a push higher now is however needed and that soon. I suggest you put your stop near break/even and leave the rest up to the market to sort out.

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squirrel_beer

And that’s all she wrote for this week and you know where to find me. See you all on Monday morning bright eyed and bushy tailed. Well, perhaps more bushy tailed than bright eyed. Prost!


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • rmwaddelljr

    BTW, your site is helpful for rats of a different ilk (don’t trade futures, etc.). ETFs are tied at the hip for much of what you do and I always see what evil mischief you guys are up to before I plan my week/day. Not to mention boatloads of nifty articles on brain matter and other neat stuff. As you & I have discussed before via email, your premium services wouldn’t exactly be a good fit for what I do; but, give credit where credit is due. Kudos for your contributions to retail ratism. Yet another shameless plug.

  • ridingwaves

    I sure hope Stocktalker didn’t buy DRYS….its down 60% since he mentioned it….

  • StockTalker

    No way, that symbol has .37 written all over it.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Bot miners.

  • ridingwaves

    I did a google search on that symbol, per post it even caught the great Fly at Ibankcoin in the trap….

  • ridingwaves

    Could be a comex opex gift

  • ridingwaves

    interesting conundrum….GDP doesn’t support higher oil prices and BL jinxed us because he sold out so he could hang with Tom and Giselle pre SB….

  • BobbyLow

    Crude has been screwing around for the entire month of January. If it breaks 53 on a candle close, I’m going to close my Long which should be at around BE. This type of price action causes a lot of false signals between Long and Short within my rule set. The only thing I know with a reasonable amount of certainity is that one of these signals is going to lead to an extended move. I just don’t know which one.

    I would rather not flip on a Friday but if price continues to deteriorate then I might open a partial short position before the close today and see what happens on Monday.

  • BobbyLow

    Ha, Ha. I knew I shouldn’t have said anything about Crude yesterday. I plead guilty. I jinxed it. :(

    See my comment above.

  • ridingwaves

    just snarking…though please say hi to Giselle for me

  • StockTalker

    Time for a change, let’s make America great again after a correction to SPX 1800:)

  • ridingwaves

    the dollar reaction vs crude to the GDP print seems off….either it’s going to be late for party or ruin it….

  • BobbyLow

    I will. LOL

    If by chance we should win the SB again, I can imagine the hatred for the Patriots by a good portion of the country will grow to unimagined levels.

    I’ve learned to embrace the hate. :)

  • ridingwaves

    Envy more so, kind of like living in San Francisco when they dominated for so long…Heck Steve Young doesn’t get hurt and they win 3 more SB’s no problem….

  • ridingwaves

    Kinda of like trading, wall street aways wins-big waves here today, might check out and go watch….cheers
    http://www.surfline.com/surflinetv/featured-clips/rule-1-mavericks-always-wins_144920

  • JackSparow
  • BobbyLow

    I remember those outstanding 49er teams. The run they had with Montana and Young at QB was fantastic.

    Yes, I think a lot of it is envy. I remember when the Patriots were the doormat of the league and would be lucky to win more than 2 or 3 games a year. When a poor team begins to be real good most people take notice in a positive way. But once that team begins to win year after year, I think it becomes a case of OK, you’re winning too much now. So I guess that’s just part of the process.

  • ridingwaves

    Met both of them and Jerry Rice, found all to be very humble…we had a run but swapped doormat position with you….

  • Edd

    I find these long stretches of going no where slowly builds in bad habits. On RUT daily I have done extremely well, but only because I am taking off positions quickly. Holding very few overnight which by definition means I`m not even trading the daily! The same thing happens even in the lower time frames. Before you know it all has become discretionary scalping. This very morning long tails on every bar 10min NUGT distracted me from my own rules. A legit by the rules trade would have returned 3.2R vs. .5R with manic scalping. It is a given, without getting back on track within the rules, I know I will miss the run when inevitably it will come from out of nowhere on any time frame.

  • ridingwaves

    lots of weekly, daily and monthly energy option expirations over next 3 days…trickery abounds…

  • saltwaterdog

    Edd I am experiencing the same thing… during these long stretches of intraday whipsaws and lack of longer-term volatility, recency bias and the tendency to start doing what has worked of late is very hard to fight. Over the last six months any exit that rhymes with “see profit, take profit” would have been optimal in my markets (EURUSD, Crude, S&P), where my own exits have been brutal. The good thing is, if you’ve given into recency and have changed your exit, the environment we’ve been in has been so protracted that it has probably saved you a lot of money.

    Systematic trading is the only endeavor I can think of where after repeated punches in the face I still wake up and say “let’s do the exact same thing again today”. I remember one of Ivan’s students here a long time ago, a year maybe, talking about using an Equity Curve filter on his strategy. He mentioned that it had kept him out of the market for months and saved some large amount of R I can’t remember, like 70R or something. I looked into EqC filters and decided to not use them, and that is only because I hadn’t seen up close what a run like the last few months can look like.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Standing aside miners.

  • BobbyLow

    “It is a given, without getting back on track within the rules, I know I will miss the run when inevitably it will come from out of nowhere on any time frame.”

    “Systematic trading is the only endeavor I can think of where after repeated punches in the face I still wake up and say “let’s do the exact same thing again today”.

    I took quotes from you and Saltwaterdog because they are GOLD!

    To which I’ll add, this is why I believe back testing is so vital to a rule set. For example if I have evidence that after back testing I have a more probabable than not chance of having a 50% Win Rate trading Crude and that I can have at least 3 losses in a row trading Crude then I’m not going to be surprised when these things actually happen. The most difficult thing about this is that back testing on paper doesn’t hurt but when you have 3 losing trades in a row in live trading it can be a little painful.

    Too many times, when this has happened during live trading, it has caused me to alter what I’m doing and I begin to lose more. Then after some time has passed I’ll back test a what if I had just stuck to my original rules and EVERY SINGLE TIME I would have been much better off sticking with my original rules.

    When a period of whipsaw happens it is not fun so now I try let the feelings occur and let them go. Then as Saltwaterdog said “. . .let’s do the exact same thing again today”.

  • Edd

    Thanks saltwater and Bobby, gotta run here, apologize for no response. regards

  • StockTalker

    Crude getting crushed

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Oh well, watcha gonna do… glad we’ve moved to break/even.

  • OJuice

    Short CL here at 53.20. Stop at 53.60.

  • Yoda

    the best trades are usually the toughest to trade. See it’s back up again 😉

  • ridingwaves

    Weekly is bullish as heck…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    FWIW, Closed out Long Crude at BE and flipped to Short at the Close. If it goes the other way on Monday so be it. Eventually one of these moves will last more than a day.

    Have a good weekend. :)

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Enjoy your weekend everyone!

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Ronebadger

    INSIDER SELL SIGNAL – Oh boy, never seen it that high! Scroll down for the chart.
    http://www.barrons.com/public/page/9_0210-instrans.html

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    you’ve got to love the crowded trade.

    it’s a long way to tomorrow open. Anything could happen I suppose.

    FYI – Tuesday is month End.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6dde3c3e032b152b8350e9077075ffb8428b8035d048bb5cf93ccd0c19291d74.png

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III