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Slow Tuesday Morning Briefing
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Slow Tuesday Morning Briefing

by The MoleSeptember 17, 2013

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

The E-Mini is looking pretty solid up here with the 100-hour holding while it’s nibbling on the 25-hour SMA right now. I think long at a breach of 1691 is permissible.  Short only below 1687.5.

The NQ on the other hand is starting to look rather bearish after yesterday’s daily candle which very much suggests a blow off top. But let’s not jump to conclusion – on a short term basis let’s see what happens here at the 25-hour SMA which is falling fast and is going to force a resolution by the time you read this (i.e either hold with prices dropping or is breached).

Quick update on the CAD/JPY RTV-S setup I posted yesterday evening: It’s not looking great right now and I would keep an eye on that sloping 100-hour SMA plus that NLBL at 96.17. Quite a bit of ST resistance and a short here with a stop above the SMA may just work. If we breach higher then I would wait for the SMA to be taken out before entertaining any long positions.

Just a friendly reminder that we have the CPI announcement – so that’ll produce some movement on the USD front. Nothing else that really jumps out at me. Given the contradicting situation on the equities side let’s sit and wait for things to pick a direction.

 

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Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Ronebadger

    “Slow Tuesday Morning”…yes…calm before the STORM?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    that why we hang out at evilspec, the (evil) house of refuge.

    (that’s me at the lair door) 😉

  • bdoone

    From Quantifiable Edges:

  • Skynard

    Short /NQ 3180, reasonable retracement.

  • Pervergence

    Took /GC 30 min s IP…..1R profit on entry candle…..took it

  • Pervergence

    Mole…..has the /GC Crazy Ivan feed started yet?…..I took that trade on my own……but no telling if the data feeds line up

  • Pervergence

    Just for info….there was a beautiful /GC IP short at 7:30am …..4:30 am my time…..would have been an easy 2R

  • Pervergence

    Can you imagine being in that in a small dinghy

  • Pervergence

    /gc l 15 min….FO buy

  • buysidetrader

    hourty zero divergence now 5 min too

  • Skynard

    Also, 5 min div looking bearish now.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    tick tick tick. the sands of time.

    http://s16.postimg.org/h0unyqo51/09_17.png

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    horror.
    if you were, certainly no time to count waves. ;-D

  • buysidetrader

    careful here, zero pointing down with no real negative price movement. weve seen how this movie end before

  • Skynard

    It will be a fast move coming. Careful with any longs here. If not today we have to wait for tomorrow. ZL primmed for a drop:)

  • Fearless

    Unfortunately Mole didn’t have the zero running before 2008. I’m pretty sure significant negative zero signal coupled with little price movement means distribution, and there must have been an extended period of time when this would have taken place prior to the October 2007 top had the zero been running then. The last move in a bull market has to be a straight line and must be relentless so that those in the know can have all of their sell orders filled above their asking price.

  • Dyellowflash

    Shorted at the top and reversed at the VW. The force seems to be with the longs for now…

  • Skynard

    Yes sir, that is what I’ve been waiting for. A move like “WTF Just Happened”:)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I do have the Zero implemented on the Ninja side. Which type of interval and which time period would you like to see?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Conflicting message or am I missing something?

  • Skynard

    If that is the case, PM’s would more than likely take a hit as well. Unsure about that?

  • Fearless

    Hourly – from October 1 to October 12, 2007

    Daily – From August 1 to November 1, 2007

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    I used to follow his research. Its often conflicting or inconclusive.
    I am not asking for much – give me a robust statistic, or give me…nothing…lol

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, it’s entertaining but I seriously don’t want to have to figure it out. IF they offer statistical trading then just tell me the f..ing entry and then optionally offer the rules and stats.

  • Skynard

    Slow hourly starting it’s descent.

  • Fearless

    No, I think the PMs will do fine. My observation has been that secular bear markets do not end until the DJIA/Gold ratio nears 2. Think about how this can happen and the probability associated with each scenario:

    1) Gold stays where it is and the DJIA crashes to 2600; or
    2) The DJIA stays where it is and gold explodes to $8500; or
    3) The DJIA sells off to 10000 and gold explodes to $5000; or
    4) The DJIA crashes to 5400 and gold rises to $2700.

    Or other combinations.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Let me get back to you…

    [Mole sacrificing chicken and painting pentagram on floor]

  • Spalding

    I have a question about the free end of day info using Ninjatrader/Kinetick. Is it possible to create daily fractile charts in currencies say 1, 2, and 8 day charts with the free eod information provided? Also, could I view 6 hours charts eod so that I may study the setups in crazyivan 480?

  • Pervergence

    l /GC….FO buy 30 minute

  • Skynard

    Additionally, VIX has not made new lows with market new highs. That is a red flag!

  • bdoone

    Obviously not statistical enough to base a trade on but more like ‘food for thought’ after seeing SPX & VIX close green yest.

  • convictscott

    Yes in a window with a chart open type 2d and hit enter. Why would you want to?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool
  • Skynard

    Ok, makes sense. In 07 everything tanked.

  • Spalding

    I am reading Mr. Krastins mateial on his website and love it! His observation of the world as ordered and with repeating patterns is right on the money. I have read the TA books on h/s, triangles, etc… and the Japanesse candlestick chart books but what I lack is the ability to look at a chart and recognize Mr. Krastins setups. I am about to subcribe to the 480 and have no interest in day trading outside of following the 480 setups but I would like to trade using his methods on an eod daily fracitle basis. The variations that I would see on the 6 hour charts would give me “real world” experience on identifying setups on the daily charts which move slower and allow for time to learn.

  • buysidetrader

    could you also please update the current daily when you get a chance . thanks

  • saltwaterdog

    Copper… ID today and wedged between the 25 and 100hr m/a. Looks like a potentially good setup either way, though resistance is heavy… 323 is upper 25hr bb, the hourly NLBL, and 324.40 is the 100d m/a

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I am currently offering a free CrazyIvan.480 sub for a week or two – make sure you sign up!

  • Pervergence

    1/2 off l /GC 1R

  • SS_JJ

    indeed.

  • Pervergence

    GC stalled so took .75 on other half

  • Skynard

    VIX is ready………………Mwahahahahaha:) Not sure the market is though, waiting on FOMC day again. Div 5 min

  • Ronebadger

    VIX and SPX still green…and interesting

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Excellent!

    Divergence is visible on daily during June-July period and also in October.
    I wonder what daily looks like this year, but i suppose I have to sigh-up for that… cough…cough…

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    SnP & Dow are primed.

  • Skynard

    Tell me one thing over past few days.

  • Skynard

    Really would like some ugly but can wait for tomorrow:)

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    I am sure you know the famous quote from Jesse …

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Not the frugly?

  • Skynard

    Lol,ah ha)

  • Skynard

    Which one? Remember, don’t fight the tape! What has happened in the past will happen again, and again, and again!

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Ho ho … the one about spending time waiting … waiting for the market to get him in … then waiting for the market to get him out.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    That one works also.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I’m not familiar with that one, but sure i’ve read it.

    I was thinking 1 or 3, and especially love 8.

    Here are nine surprising things Jesse Livermore said regarding excessive trading:

    1. “Money is made by sitting, not trading.”

    2. “It takes time to make money.”

    3. “It was never my thinking that made the big money for me, it always was sitting.”

    4. “Nobody can catch all the fluctuations.”

    5. “The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money everyday, as though they were working for regular wages.”

    6. “Buy right, sit tight.”

    7. “Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.”

    8. “Don’t give me timing, give me time.”

    and finally, the most important thing:

    9. “There is a time for all things, but I didn’t know it. And that is precisely what beats so many men in Wall Street who are very far from being in the main sucker class. There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time. Not many can always have adequate reasons for buying and selling stocks daily – or sufficient knowledge to make his play an intelligent play.”

  • Skynard

    Yes, spending time in cash if uncertain untill a direction is sought.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Nice one/s … all points to a time for everything … and everything in time.

  • Skynard

    Trading can be draining, especially if you do not trade mechanical. Good to take time away:)

  • Pervergence

    IP s /GC 30 min

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Who needs a tipping service or sms … thanks for the heads up!

  • Pervergence

    Only a couple entries I know so I share what little I can offer…..correct any errors please

  • Pervergence

    I like the previous candle being a hammer which has failed too

  • Pervergence

    Out for 1 R…..

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Regarding errors … I suspect you have not written down exactly what each event that you are now using is … eg defining an IP or a FO so a 10 yo can read and understand …

    Then write down exactly what will cause you to exit part or whole … both of these are fundamental errors (ie areas to improve upon) … notwithstanding the many R’s you have been pulling.

    Somewhere along the Journey of risk taking … people realise what a solo pursuit it really is … just them AND the market … and quite often that awakening occurs in synchronicity with an uptick in their results.

    EDIT: Another part of ‘errors’ … part of the process my students go through after each session of trading is to do a Personal Debrief … just three headings … What did I learn … What did I do well … What do I want to improve upon … at the end of the week you go through each debrief to see what is happening on a personal level … as opposed to just a monetary one … only in this way can a person monitor their progress towards their written down objective.