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So Far So Good
52

So Far So Good

by The MoleFebruary 3, 2017

Given yesterday’s lack of participation in equities yesterday there’s not much to say or do at this point. The market has yet to show its hand and when it does we’ll be able to reassess the probabilities. Lacking new information we should however not feel tempted to fill the void with our fears or opinions.


2017-02-02_zero

Shown above is our trusted Zero indicator tracing the E-Mini. You should take particular note of the right hand panel and how participation completely evaporated since last Wednesday.

2017-02-03_spoos_update

We did get pretty lucky however in snagging a long entry near what I considered a short term inflection point. Better to be lucky than good I guess. I’m moving my stop to break/even now and plan to sacrifice an extra rare steak for lunch in order to hopefully earn the favor of Ms. Market.

2017-02-03_crude

Crude is looking like a solid long on the short term panel right now. As I most definitely like the formation on the daily  I’m tempted to grab a small long position right here with a stop below 53.3. However it wouldn’t be out of character for crude to paint one last whipsaw to the downside before taking off. So if that happens then I’ll monitor it Sunday night and try to get on board while the getting is good. Caveat – if you’re trading a smaller account (e.g. $100k or less) then you may be better off grabbing OIL, DBO, SCO, or UWT. However those are ETNs and thus you’re bound to NYSE trading hours.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    @darkthirty nicely done yesterday mate

  • Mark Shinnick

    Short miners, tight stop.

  • Yoda

    Strong zero at open, high 5 min TICK reading, VIX kicked in the nuts: bullish
    Trin > 1.5, market breadth less than 70%, TLT (+): bearish

    Bulls need to see follow-up, failing that the open may be a bull trap.

  • Billabong

    SCO is a short, you probably meant UCO.

  • Billabong

    Day trade?

  • ridingwaves

    FIRE sector is vertical pushing up indexes, pretty thin, if XLF gives away that would be telling

  • Mark Shinnick

    For me normally yes, except this sequence has multiple technicals and trend lines immediately below that everyone is looking at so it could be an inflection area to the downside for a more robust position.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Obviously you would have to reverse direction for the inverse ones, yes.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • ridingwaves

    seems traders are moving into miners now that NFP print is over….

  • Mark Shinnick

    That stop got hit…for all we know its time for new push up, just no clue at the moment.

  • ridingwaves

    could be new push up for metals, needs to get thru resistance just overhead…my junior miner stream is seeing a lot of daily highs lighting up…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Makes sense, thanks.

  • ridingwaves

    still could sell off in the afternoon…let me twitter Trump for some direction

  • Billabong

    Financials are the only thing holding this up today. Bonds and $ aren’t doing very much.

  • Billabong

    LOL … I just had a buy signal on UCO (not supported by CL) show up.

  • Yoda

    Stopped out of short risk

  • ridingwaves

    chewing up shorts on this sideways expansion favoring bulls…after these IPO’s are out of way in next couple weeks the MM’s might dump it….though this year seems to have sell in May all over it..

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    but it’s crude related

  • kudra

    equities seem to have the perfect formula right now – dovish fed, rising jobs, low inflation, promise of infrastructure spending, and prospective tax cuts. Not sure how anyone could be short equities.

  • kudra

    Mole: great call on XOP yesterday. you are a wiz.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Short miners again….$ model is a strong influence to the trade.

  • BobbyLow

    Once again, we are close on our signals.

    I got my signal on Monday and went Long UCO. Oil has been on a “Slippery Road” for this past month and we’ll see if this signal has any legs. :)

  • BobbyLow

    You left off “No More Regulations” off of your list. Goldman Sachs is sportin wood. :)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I live to sever…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Excellent point: It’s always relevant to be scanning for that trap.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Just giving you a hard time.
    Different trade windows, different lenses.
    😉

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, all very well-taken :)

  • kudra

    ha. Have a great weekend and thank you for this blog.

  • evilasevildoes

    GREAT CALL

  • Tomcat

    Closed $M, $NOV, and have a sell limit on $CLR.

  • Tomcat

    Still holding large position in biotech, which in my lens is taking a pause. Initiating a small ES short for hedge.

  • Tomcat

    RW, I am looking for a capitulation in Natty. will buy aggressively in the $2.90s area.

  • ridingwaves

    that gap near 3 was going to be covered, I mentioned this earlier in year, very close now…your 2.90 area would be a solid entry….run the stops below 3 and then up from there..

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Which probably nobody followed.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander
  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander
  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    small SPY short (my overall holdings very long) https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f242f9639ab87ec54a46e467ce22717bc2d32a980eaeee82b987f6074ba566a9.png SPY here. stop above yellow bar and target gap fill

  • BobbyLow

    Hey Tomcat,

    You kinda planted a seed the other day when you mentioned hedging. My market stable has been so indecisive for so long that I began to hedge my positions this week. I’ve hedged before and wasn’t crazy about it because I didn’t have a definite plan when to close out my hedge. Over the past few days, I’ve been able to add rules to help make this work. I believe that hedging can eat into gross profits but in trendless markets can also be a valuable tool.

  • ridingwaves

    not pausing too much

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander
  • Tomcat

    Yes, indeed. In these choppy/trend less markets, I prefer to have some small hedges more for my sanity then anything else. Seeing something green helps stimulate positive thoughts in my brain 😉

  • BKXtoZERO

    Article with LONG list of trader biases http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-02/

  • BKXtoZERO
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Silver has been looking healthy the past many weeks.

    2016 was an end of the down-trend IMHO with a neutral stance.
    Perhaps this year will be more positive.

    In the meantime, be sure to pay homage to El Tio if you go mining for Silver.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2c798f8d519c81ab5bc7df05e0012b224297c9706f8e3e079beb67143d20edac.png
    -GG

  • Billabong

    It’s been a helluva run on silver miners and streamers the last 6 weeks.

  • Yoda

    Congrats Pats! What an amazing game!

  • Billabong

    best team won….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    Ya, no shit. Money will buy you most anything!