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The Yellen Crush
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The Yellen Crush

by The MoleDecember 15, 2016

It seems like along with a new POTUS (which one exactly still remains to be seen) we also seem to be getting an entirely new FOMC monetary policy, as Yellen appears to suddenly have discovered new faith in God and higher interest rates. The increase in the federal funds rate to a range between 0.5% and 0.75% was expected but came along with the prospect of brisker monetary tightening. And not surprisingly all hell broke loose… well, at least over in forex and precious metals:
2016-12-15_silver_update

Which of course sent our silver campaign on an express elevator to the woodshed. I’m glad we moved our stop to a bit above break/even on Tuesday as we at least got out with half an R in petty cash.

2016-12-15_eur_crushed

My very promising EUR campaign also got stomped courtesy of a ramp in the Dollar. As a consolation the EUR/USD exchange rate has shifted even closer to par. If that trend continues over the next year I may be able to rent a bigger palace here in Valencia

2016-12-15_tslac

Okay, as futures and forex are shot to hell let’s look at some stock symbols today. Tesla is looking like a possible sell, assuming it pushes back up a bit further toward 203.

2016-12-15_tsla

You can click on the chart to get a dynamic version. Seasonality is pointing down over the coming month, which may work in our favor.

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Bonus Chart:

2016-12-15_crude

Crude! Come to daddy 😉


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Tomcat

    I really hope you are right on $TSLA, because I think it deserves to go to ZERO,
    but I warn you that Musk was selected to be part of the advisory cabinet for the new potus…yes you heard that right!!!

  • StockTalker

    By the looks of it a massive move down is about to begin.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    On what symbol?

  • ridingwaves

    Skynard is back…

  • ridingwaves

    he is one smart mofo…..definitely the Ford of our generation…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    First up what a company deserves and what a stock price will do are two pairs of shoes. I remember Yahoo going up and up and up back in the early 2000s – it was the most hated stock I had ever seen.

    I don’t even pay attention to the drama and fundamental data. Just give me a symbol and the chart tells me all i need to know.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You think?

  • ridingwaves

    greenlander,
    the sector we were talking about should do well in high dollar environment, waiting patiently, best part is it’s the most beat up too…

  • ridingwaves

    I have no idea, similar posting style though…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    At least he’s posting – attendance has been lacking in the past few weeks.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    With all the shenanegans currently in play it’s quite possible that they’re going to delay the 1/20 ceremony. There’s a massive effort going on to prevent Trump from taking office.

  • ridingwaves

    all the bears are now mounted on various wall street office walls….

  • ridingwaves

    that would start Anarchy…its drama like you state below

  • StockTalker

    Shorted /NKD and /ES

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    He got short squeezed – still trying to find a decent ask:

    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/CtmXGkrbud4/hqdefault.jpg

  • ridingwaves

    NG report coming up……what say you old man weather…

  • Tomcat

    My prediction is COLD very COLD

  • ridingwaves

    all in all, he doesn’t look to frantic….a zen like bear….maybe it’s Soros alter ego twin…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It’s Tim.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    if Mole rebrands Zero, it should be ABSOLUTE ZERO.
    he he

    http://www-tc.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/zero/images/home-noairdate.jpg

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…anyone capable of achieving reliable space flight and excellent car mass production just cannot be easily sold short.

  • StockTalker

    Market catalyst about to start:) Are you ready?

  • Tomcat

    Ignoring the fundamentals no matter how propped up the earnings are by free money, is not a game I want to play. Reason why solar stocks (and yes TSLA is a solar stock even before purchasing SCTY) took a tumble was based on perception that gov subsidies were gonna end with the president elect. That paradigm is shifting. Trump is a business man and anti-globalism (for now at least), TSLA makes their cars (unlike the big 3) in the USA, so he will continue to support all businesses in the USA.

  • ridingwaves

    down 147 bln cubic feet….that should move it a little

  • ridingwaves

    they are making the best electric cars…..the solar battery storage and his new solar roofs are damn cool….

  • Yoda

    There is indeed blood in the PM street

  • StockTalker

    Killing weak hands

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    UGLY

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Still waiting! 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Have you actually TRADED based on fundamental information? If so, how have you fared over the long term?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    EUR/USD trading at 1.037. Maybe I’ll get my Christmas present after all! :-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’ve got to start buying shit.

  • StockTalker

    Takes time to rid institution blocks

  • OJuice

    Time for a euro vacation!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    PM/Miners blood.

    18 might be support, based on red arrows of past.
    but never say never (black arrow of 2015)

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a8fc941d1bfae831ca8ea5b8f44d667630af92fe0af42bd57bc08c8bfa3fb844.png

  • AcoBrasil

    “Reason why solar stocks (and yes TSLA is a solar stock even before purchasing SCTY) took a tumble was based on perception that gov subsidies were gonna end with the president elect.”
    That is only a small part of what fueled the collapse. What was really driving it was 3Q earnings and outlook statements reflecting the bad news of panel oversupply beating down margins and forward PE.

  • Tomcat

    My entire point was to present you with information that you may have not known (i.e. Musk selected to be in the Trump advisory board).
    To answer your question, on my IRA account, I invest on fundamentals even though to decide EPs I look at technicals. I have same as most people, relatively well…matching S&P performance within 2-3% up/down on any given year relative to S&P.
    Trading account, is mostly speculative/technical trading.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    LOL.

  • StockTalker

    Want to see a selloff with a flat Zero. Hehe, VWAP breach should get the motor started

  • AcoBrasil

    Not quite as painful looking at that chart this go around :)

  • ridingwaves

    crude found buyers, daddy might have came home early…

    your CL 49.50 buy point is also close to 49.61 dec. 8th low on ID candle that set up move north.
    CL might have found support for now

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I sold my last lot at 27, when the MA60 was crossed.
    at the time, it was hard to pull the plug. emotions suck!

    I had to play a mind game with myself. If price went back above ma60. I was back in, at least a little. never happened.

  • StockTalker

    There goes the farm

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    We may just get it. Participation today has been flattening. Note that a sell off would accelerate during the EOS given the current conditions (per observation over the past eight years).

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I already live there! :-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Keep selling!

  • StockTalker

    Yes, sell of here would be a devastating blow at least in the short term. playing the huge H&S pattern

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Not being snarky – just asking straight questions. IF fundamentals work for you then use them. I personally do not even look at that stuff and I’ve been doing just fine. Did you ever read my post on information diet? Maybe that’ll shed more light on my approach and thinking:

    http://evilspeculator.com/information_diet/

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    For me everything is always a probability in flux as opposed to a certainty. The door may be open but sellers have to step through it. The next two hours will provide answers in a jiffy. Especially as it needs to happen now – unexploited weakness does not last in this market.

  • StockTalker

    Lol, that’s for sure. My thoughts exactly:)

  • StockTalker

    Next wave should be a dossy

  • kudra

    alright, chicken little. cool it.

  • StockTalker

    Easy to do these days, all you need is a credit card and Wifi:)

  • Billabong

    We definitely lost SI $17 support today. These slam downs are a regular occurrence but not on the same date. Checkout the daily chart – 4 Oct, 11 Nov and today. There is probably some math equation or conspiracy theory that fits this perfectly … LOL.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Yeh I am eyeing for sure. Sentiment is terrible which helps. Been scanning over everything and can’t find too much appetizing.

    Gold I might take a look in Jan

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    If oil drops to lower end of the range, that will look interesting too.

  • Tomcat

    Thank you. I will check it out and read it.

  • StockTalker

    Come to daddy:)

  • Yoda

    Tape is itching between DOW 20,000 and the abyss