Tuesday Mission Briefing

I know how you feel and I’d rather spend another day enjoying the late spring weather myself. But alas the markets wait for no man or woman and there’s work to do. Always remember: showing up is half the battle (unless people are shooting at you). The equity front is looking interesting this morning, however due to the lack of participation late last week we’ll need to watch the open as it’s still too premature to consider any entry opportunities.

As you can see the E-Mini isn’t offering us much in terms of technical context right now. The only short term measure that may have meaning (but probably doesn’t) is the 100-hour SMA. And that one hasn’t even been touched in ages. So what else do we have to work with?

I keep telling you guys that it’s all about the volatility, which as you know has been a personal obsession of mine. In this case we’re talking about realized volatility (RV) and it seems to be flattening – or at least has been ahead of the long weekend. Another reason to wait until we pass amateur hour.

There’s one little nugget that popped up and it’s a pretty solid volume hole on the hourly panel. A drop to below 2404 could actually shift participation toward a little post holiday screw you sell off. But until that happens I think the range between 2404 and 2408 should serve as a support zone for us.

My USD/JPY campaign barely survived the weekend and it’s actually starting to look weak. As you know I wouldn’t terribly mind getting stopped out here and then some. Given the current formation there seems to be a binary situation in the works: Hold the recent spike low near 110.25 and we either meander sideways here or pop higher. But if that spike low goes then it’s straight to the cleaners which means 110 or even 109.

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