The Mole Put

Today I’m officially a desert dwelling rat. Yesterday afternoon I took a drive down South from Los Angeles to the Anza Borrego State Park. Despite living in California for over 20 years I somehow had never been in this pocket of the state. And I’m glad I remedied this gross oversight as it’s one of the most spectacular deserts I have ever seen in my life:

This is a snapshot I took when we crossed above one of the peaks at about 3600 feet.

And this one I took around 6:30am in the morning from my hotel room as the sun was just about to come up. Unfortunately the hotel’s WiFi absolutely sucks, which is in part responsible for today’s late post (when in doubt blame the tech). It took forever to upload all those images! What usually takes me five minutes dragged out to over an hour.

Anyway, amongst the regulars here at Evil Speculator an ongoing joke over the years has been that of the ‘Mole Put’. For some reason it seems that every time I happen to leave town on either business or pleasure the market starts to drop. I have not kept stats but I would guess our success ratio at this point is near 80%. Not a bad edge if you’re crazy enough to trade it 😉

Seriously I personally do not buy into superstition and back over in the unforgiving realms of reality Apple’s earnings revision managed to drag the SPX below its nearest volume hole. We are not in defcon yellow just yet but it’s possible that we may see continuation until 1420.

Yesterday I recommended to follow the 100-hour SMA and it actually gave us not just one but two perfect entries. I hope you took them as the NLSL on the daily is now the only hurdle that keeps us from going to 1420.

Crude – same story. Yesterday’s overall theme was the 100-hour SMA and here we got a very comfortable entry earlier today. The breach of the hourly NLBL was the trigger for an acceleration higher. I would take partial profits here but keep a few lottery tickets in the running.

As expected ole’ bucky took the elevator up – once again we got two entries and we are now comfortably above the 25-day SMA. It’s been two months since the last time this happened. Maybe there is hope for my EUR/USD exchange rate after all?

Since we are on the subject – the EUR/USD just gave up its own 25-day SMA and it’s looking bearish. There is some hourly support and I expect a bit of a slow down. We may even get a retest of that SMA – if it happens this may be a second opportunity to dip into short positions. Of course it runs back above then it would represent a failure of the bears. Wouldn’t be the first time, right?

AUD/USD – resistance is holding thus far. If you took an entry today/yesterday then I recommend a stop above the daily NLBL near 1.03 and be done with it.

New setups below for the subs – please step into my air conditioned Desert Lair:
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EUR/CAD – I know it’s tough to see but we are near the 100-day SMA right now. Great spot to be positioned either way – just follow the tape either up or down. The SMA should be what separates us from a long or short position. I know – sometimes we get shaken out a few times but the statistical long term reward far outweighs the pain.

The Kiwi is bumping its head against quite a bit more resistance than a few days ago. We are below the SMA and a NLBL – if it holds we are going DOWN!

Copper – back to whence it came. I know it looks bearish but this is a good spot to be long with a stop only a few pips away. Of course we are hoping for a breach and acceleration lower here as I think that trade has more potential.

Silver now officially below the SMA and it also just snug past the expired NLSL. Looking bearish right now…

Gold – sitting on dual support right now – hourly and daily. Good spot to be long and we won’t have to wait very long as the SMA is rising fast, which means this one either gets a move on or we can flip it for a short trade.
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Sorry again for the late post – I am operating on the equivalent of a 56k modem over here. Keep it fun and keep it frosty.

Cheers,