Hell’s Bells

You may not be aware of this but the stakes are extremely high right now. Equities are literally sitting on the last bastion of support and unless we see a bounce here things are about to get ugly – really ugly. That’s right – I’m talking hell’s bells ugly!

And yes, there is method to my madness. As I don’t want to post my volume profile chart for the third time in a row let me paint the overall picture across several timeframes:

I hope your browser is resilient as this is going to be a regular chartalanche. If you pulled this post on a mobile phone then my condolences for zapping your bandwidth limit. Let’s start with the E-Mini: In today’s early morning briefing I highlighted the 25-hour SMA and thus far it has been holding up famously – so far so good and that keeps us in the game. On the daily panel we busted a net-line sell level (NLSL) yesterday and are also below the 100-hour SMA. Possible target would be the 1320 range, unless…

… unless of course the 25-week SMA holds up. As it’s already Friday tomorrow (time really with all those red candles) this should get interesting.

Bear in mind that our bearish P&F price objective on the SPX is pretty close to being fulfilled. As I’m typing this we’re trading at around 1385. The implications of a continuation lower here can not be understated. If we don’t hold here (and stick to our P&F PO) then we are triggering a weekly sell signal at the SMA. We’d also be below the daily volume profile hole (see my previous posts) and there’s quite a bit of participation that could lead us lower.

A quick house cleaning item – AAPL is now at our final target. Actually it was yesterday already but it kind of slipped my mind. As it’s now outside the 100-day BB we want to be out. If you missed both entries then please go outside and kick a tree. I’m not ready to be long here yet, but give me a day or two, in particular if we see an attempt to paint a floor.

SETUPS!!!

Gold – at the 25-hour SMA – I want to be short here but will flip it for a long if we bust above 1730.

Crude – inside day setup plus it’s a narrow range 4 day. If you are a noob (or first time visitor) then please consult the cheat sheet for more details on how to trade those. Frankly, it’s so easy – a caveman could do it.

Another inside day on copper – same game. Bear in mind that these levels may change by the time we close today. Use the closing boundaries, not what you see on this chart.

And now for something completely different – stocks symbols! I’m seeing a lot of setups today and thought I’d indulge. GOOG – right at the 100-day SMA. Looks a bit like AAPL two weeks ago. Doesn’t mean it’ll drop into the abyss but right now I’m short with a stop above the SMA. If she pulls back up I’d be long after 667. Better hurry, this one is on the move.

Here’s the CME which is now trigger a short as it breached a NLSL and it should be golden once it drops below the SMA.

BG – right at its daily NLSL. Good chance it’ll hold and I want to be long here with a stop below.

CELG – now touching support. I want to be long with a stop below. Willing to flip if we make it through 71.

ISRG – also touching support. I want to be long until we breach through the NLS and the 25-day SMA. After that it’s a short trade.

Potential last kiss goodbye (LKGB) on LMT – I’m short with a stop above 91.

Pfizer – support seems to be holding and I’m sitting on a tiny long position (it’s a bit gappy for me).

Potash – possible support there. I’m still waiting for another candle tomorrow but we may get a bounce attempt here.

Exxon dropping below the 100-day support line – couldn’t happen to a nicer company, right? 😉

Finally some good ole’ FX! That’s our bread and butter after all. EUR/AUD sitting right at the Maginot Line. I very much like what I’m seeing on the hourly panel. So I’m short with a stop above the 25-hour SMA. Hoping for a breach of the 100-day and continuation lower. Yes, I’ll flip it if we bust above the 25-hour. You guys know the game by now.

Inside day on EUR/CAD – you know what to do.

Last but not least – USD/CAD – again touching resistance. I am short but would be long after par, which is obviously a psychological resistance level. Great setup here – dont’ miss it!

This ought to keep you guys busy for a while 😉

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Cheers,