Follow The Yellow Brick Road

And once again the tape is chasing everyone around the playground without much of a direction. It continues to hang on by a thread, giving both sides hope/reason for a break out. And that is some of the most dangerous tape as it leads to opinions, doubts, guesswork, and in general a shaking out of the weak hands. So let’s be clear and once again reiterate the game plan here:

And for me that’s rather simple. As the daily is traveling through limbo land I am still short with a stop above the 25-hour SMA. Will it be broken today, tomorrow, next week? Maybe. Probably. Who knows!!?? What I do know is that the 25-hour has been holding and until that changes I will simply stay in my trade. I have banked fine profits on the way down already and there’s no reason for me to over think this one. So let me make this very simple for all you short attention span maniacs cowering at the edge of the seat right now:

Get it? Got it! Good! So let’s move on to our nursery.

I’m taking partial profits on the EUR/AUD. That was a picture perfect entry this morning – wish they were all so easy. And yes, of course you can enjoy some of that early morning goodness – be a member and sign up for my Google+ feed – and/or twitter of course.

EUR/USD – good entry this morning and I’m holding it for more upside to come. My stop is below the hourly SMA.

NZD/USD – you may remember that entry from the other day. Unfortunately it faked us out and I didn’t go short due to the weekly support that’s waiting below.

USD/CAD – great inside day entry and we’re off to the races – well, kind of. I’m keeping my stop below yesterday’s low.

Silver good entry this morning – yes, you ought to roll out of bed earlier! I’m holding it as I like the 25-day SMA breach.
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AUD/USD touching its 100-day SMA and also below its NLSL right now. Not looking bullish but I’ll be long until we drop below the SMA. It’s been a good support line and if it gives it up then the inverse play will be worth the lost pips.

EUR/CAD – I’ll be long on a breach of the SMA. It’s looking like it took a viagra today – or maybe it’s just happy to see me 🙂

GBP/USD – it’s back below the 25-hour SMA – not cooperating with my carefully crafted scheme. Also below the 100-hour right now, so it’s looking bearish. But we’re also near weekly and monthly support right now, which makes me very cautious about the downside.

The greenback is looking like it may roll over – so the Mole is on death watch right now. The 100-hour is my trigger.

Gold! The shiny stuff is looking it may crawl above that 100-hour SMA. The hourly range is really compressed here but I’m thinking bullish until we drop back below the 25-day SMA.

Inside day on copper. If you were reading Ivan’s comments (he used to teach our resident Convict, in case you didn’t know) then make note of the three outside period candles. I think something’s looming here. I would prefer an upside breach tomorrow.

Coffee also giving us an inside day + NR4 combo. I would prefer a long entry here as well.

Soybeans at possible support. If you want to play it safe then wait for the 100-hour SMA breach.

And finally wheat – it’s been a while as the bastard has been on vacation for the past few weeks. Well it has met the 100-day SMA and now it’s time to pay the piper. Not my favorite trade by far but if you like the softs then dig in!

Cheers,