Bull Smacked!

The day ain’t over yet but anyone loading up on shorts this morning before the 1860 mark was breached has now been seriously manhandled. I just took a few minutes to breeze through the comment section and I have to say that I am horrified. Here I am pointing at a critical inflection point at 1860 and some of you guys are shorting on the way up? On what evidence I may ask? In case you wonder – I have been doing the exact opposite and just took profits as I’m seeing a slight bearish divergence on the Zero Lite:

This one is actually quite interesting – we’ve seen a steady divergence forming throughout the day but thus far it has refused to breach lower. I’m giving this another 30 minutes or so until it blasts higher. I usually allow those patterns about two hours tops – and if they don’t trigger within that period then it’s fair to expect the exact opposite.

In general it’s been a big f-u day as we’ve seen counter trend moves across – crude suddenly dropped like a rock and so did bonds. Yes, could be a fake out before they take off but frankly speaking tape like this is not helping to establish any sense of direction. We continue to whipsaw all over the place and there’s no end in sight. Which means that we need to abandon any vestiges of bias and take it one setup at a time. If you got caught on the wrong end today then doubling down on bad trades is a very bad idea.

We’ve got a long setup on the spoos as we’re most likely going to paint a hammer. Theoretically we also have an RTV-S but frankly speaking who would want to take it given an 18 handle stop? So if we drop lower then I’ll be using the NLSL at 1866.25. Until that happens the hammer long has the highest probabilities as the bears have blown it once more – what else is new? Five years of pain for the grizzlies and counting.

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Cheers,