Lottery Ticket Tuesday

We are at a crucial stage across the board with equities and futures near inflection points which respective resolutions will define the direction of the current quarter. I’m going to make this short and sweet for you: Hopping on the right bus is the name of the game here. However the tape at this stage is intrinsically geared toward misdirection. So my approach will be to take out a few lottery tickets and build my positions as I’m proven right. As usual let’s start with equities and then cover forex and bonds:

On the E-Mini we’re clearly in a shake out zone which spans between ES 2020 and 2060 – forty handles of pain and confusion plastered with opinions and high emotions. The bulls currently have the upper hand as the 100-day SMA is below us and it’s slowly rising. You could use the high of yesterday’s shooting star as a long entry with its low as the stop. On the downside things are a bit more tricky unfortunately. Thor is currently short the NQ but that 100-day will be very difficult to overcome. The reason why we decided to include it into the Sunday entry line up was due to the potential of a sudden slide lower that would burn a hell of a lot of longs.

However right now it’s looking still as if the bulls can hold the line. On the hourly the 100 is already swinging higher and a long position here with a stop below 2023 is a lottery ticket with very limited risk. The dynamics are balancing on a knife’s edge – below 2020 things could easily accelerate lower quickly, but as of right now as I’m typing this the bulls still have a solid chance to shake out a few more weak hands and then drive this higher.

Another short term lottery ticket today is the EURUSD – a few more pips lower and I’m going to grab a long with a stop just below 1.175. As you know I’m implicitly short the EUR (i.e. I live in Spain and earn in Dollars) thus I’d be happy to get stopped out on this one 😉

Quite a bit more below the fold – please meet me in the lair:

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Very nice setups across the board – don’t get over exposed however as we may see a bit of shake out today.

Cheers,