The Final Stretch

I don’t know about you guys but I’m definitely ready for October and what hopefully will turn into a solid earning season. It’s not that I don’t enjoy bearish tape but let’s be honest, August and September have been huge disappointments for the bears since the onset of QE. Now that it’s officially being shut down and rate hikes supposedly are on the horizon (I see it when I believe it) the grizzlies may have better luck next year. To me of course it’s all the same – up or down – I simply trade the tape that I am being handed.

Statistically speaking the last three months of the year are a lot more bullish, directional, and less volatile as expressed here by the monthly Sharpe ratio plot. If you’re new here then you may be happy to learn that monthly and weekly stats for all Yahoo symbols are available on the Evil Speculator stock statistics page. Enjoy!

I was  bit skeptical there yesterday but it seems our E-Mini campaign is showing signs of life and I’m now advancing my stop loss to break/even. Obviously we would like to see a bit more upside during today’s session just in case Kim Jong Un decides to cash in his SPY puts next Monday.

Well, that didn’t take long! Crude was taken to the woodshed last night and my long campaign met its untimely ending. Glad I only deployed a small position size here. On the upside a bit more weakness followed by a credible spike low would represent an excellent re-entry opportunity. But it being crude I wouldn’t risk more than a 0.5% R size.

USD/JPY is still thinking about what it wants to do next. In the context of the prior two reversals it’s possible that this advance has come to an end and I decided to close it near break/even ahead of the weekend. That’s a rare discretion as you all know, but too much can happen over the weekend to Dollar related pairs.

USD/CAD has descended toward our current trail but is still in the running. I think I chose my trail well and feel comfortable holding it through the weekend as we’re over 2R in profit now.

ZN is on my watch list after producing what looks like a somewhat credible support line on its daily panel. Always remember however that this chart plots the continuous contract and thus it’s got less credibility. However if I see a convincing spike low, or a retest variation long pattern on the hourly I would be tempted to take out a small exploratory long position.

Gold also has made it onto my watch list but the spike low there is not yet convincing enough for me. A touch of 1281 would be best as that marks a weekly NLSL. If it can drop into that and then hold it I think we may have ourselves an entry opportunity.

More goodies and entries below the fold for my intrepid subs:

It's not too late - learn how to consistently trade without worrying about the news, the clickbait, the daily drama and misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don't waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.