Wait A Minute…

12:30pm EDT: I snoozed the entry in Silver this morning and am now waiting for a retest:

This is the price I pay for coding all night – LOL – well, I would be surprised if there wasn’t some response by the gold/silver bugs.

Just came back from breakfast and quite frankly I’m a bit surprised to see the tape below VWAP at this point. Maybe there’s hope for the bears after all? We just busted through the S2 pivot on the ES futures and are getting close to making new lows. NQ is dubiously lagging behind which still gives me pause.

12:40pm EDT: Here’s my preliminary channel for you rats:

So, the rally up today looks like a fourth wave and we could be either done with 5 or are about to complete it now.

The astute EWT student might however say: ‘But wait a minute – if this is a motive down – shouldn’t we get an a-b-c up and then another drop to the downside?’

Well, that’s what it looks like. It is possible that we might actually get a Minor corrective wave in which you can actually count the lower degree sub waves – my apologies if I sound a bit cynical but the last three months have left their mark – LOL.

Based on the current pattern I won’t go long at this point – and I won’t go short either. A good spot to take the long side would be on the conclusion of the C wave down – right now we seem to complete an A wave. Again, this count is preliminary and might be shot to hell fairly soon, but this is what I’m seeing right now and thus I have to act accordingly.

The only way to survive this Primary wave is to only take trades when the probabilities are clearly in your favor. If you have to question your reasoning/analysis for more than a second then you are probably taking a gamble.

1:01pm EDT: I really like Waffle’s page on trading accounts smaller than $25k.

1:40pm EDT: I expect some push back somewhere around here – be cautious. Geronimo just took a long scalp trade – just FYI.

2:11pm EDT: EvilSpeculator has a special offer today:

We only have limited inventory, so call now!