The New Drill

3:22pm EDT: Okay, I’m done kicking my tree outside:

Ouch that hurts – on with business:

The drill here now is to wait for 880 – assuming you are still short of course. If we push below yesterday’s lows then have confirmation that further downside is in the works. Since I unwisely dumped my puts during the obligatory pre-FOMC fake out I’m going to have to sit this one out. Not happy about it but I made my bed and I’m not about to chase this tape now. Discipline is everything  – especially after you screwed up or made a call and wound up on the wrong side.

3:35pm EDT: Now that the cast is drying on my broken leg I had a little epiphany. We could also be in a 3rd leg up as shown on the updated chart above. This would make me very nervous actually if I was short and thus I feel a bit better about going into cashes (I know – paltry excuses galore).

Seriously though – the confirmation line for this blue scenario would be today’s highs, which cannot be breached otherwise the short term bearish play is off the table.

3:41pm EDT: Another tidbit that just popped into my demented mind: If this is a 3rd wave down – boy, considering wave {1} we would drop massively here – this is going to get very interesting and that quickly.

3:50pm EDT: I have to apologize to you rats – because I wasn’t able to see the forest before the trees:

How could I not see this damn channel earlier?