Another Profitable Week

There is simply no stopping this freight train – momo divergences be damned. But for some mysterious reason I continue to see people exerting a lot of energy on calling a top and worse – stepping in front of it. Although I do understand the underlying psychology behind it, I still fail to understand the purpose, as it rarely serves our trading results.

To make predictions is of course an inseparable part of human nature – the constant need to project forward into the future and to gauge the odds of what may happen next. It has helped us survive as hunters and gatherers during the past 100,000 years or so. But when it comes to predicting market direction these very instincts do not serve as at all, quite on the contrary – usually they do us in.

I hate to keep pulling this rabbit out of my hat but few charts do a better job in visualizing the simplicity and benefit of simply letting market forces run their course, especially during rocket periods. My ES campaign has now reached the 14R mark and I continue to trail the action via each new emerging spike low.

Clearly the buy bots are back in the game as is easily discernible by monitoring the NYSE UVOL/DVOL plots.

The only discretionary setup I’m interested in right now is wheat which is painting a beautiful hammer. Look at the panel on the very left – looks pretty ‘top heavy’, doesn’t it? Well, don’t let it fool you as these types of conditions can easily turn into massive short squeezes. The odds here are pretty mixed – 50/50. But if it gets going even 1/2R exposure can turn into very profitable campaign. So keep an eye on this one starting Sunday night.

I’m well exposed and among some discretionary trades I have a few ongoing campaigns running on Thor – plus CrazyIvan has been trading the house down again this week. For some reason participation here has been rather low, which is disappointing as we’ve been banking coin like bosses over the past few weeks.

But I guess that is part of the game – not everyone is wired for success. Many try their luck but only few succeed in realizing their dreams. In the words of the venerable Vince Lombardi:

“The difference between a successful person and others is not a lack of strength, not a lack of knowledge, but rather a lack of will.”

Enjoy your weekend.

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