Are You Paying Attention?

I often ponder about what separates those few successful traders from all the hapless victims. I could be listing all kinds of topics ranging from developing a demonstrable edge, money management,  overcoming one’s cognitive biases, capital commitment guidelines, you name it. But I just may be over thinking it – let’s keep it simple. How about just ‘paying attention’ or ‘sticking with the program’? To quote Richard Dennis, the founder of the ‘turtles’:

I always say you could publish [my trading] rules in a newspaper and no one would follow them. The key is consistency and discipline.

Case in point – last night I caught up with the comment section and saw some of my intrepid readers complain about the inside day setup on the spoos which had unfortunately gone the way of the dodo. And I had to ask myself, who cares? How about all those other setups I posted yesterday as well as last week – many on the FX and commodities side? Why just focus on equities all the time?

I know a thing or two about human psychology and in particular about traders. Yes, there are the select few who are ice cold SOBs  and are able to bank some mighty coin without as much as a smirk. But frankly – those are the exception – the vast majority doesn’t mind bragging a little or reporting on a good entry. Which leaves me with two options – either my blog is populated by mostly exceptional individuals or perhaps many of you continue to ignore valid setups. I frankly hope it’s the former but forgive me for being skeptical 😉

So let’s review:

Great inside day setup on the NZD/USD yesterday and we got a long breach as hoped. Within one session we pushed to T1 and I suggest you lighten up a little. Personally I plan to keep a few tickets in the running until about 0.83.

Cable – similar fine ID entry yesterday and she’s off to the races. My target range is 1.618.

EUR/USD – same entry and same resolution. My target is 1.31. Not looking good for ole’ bucky. I may have to charge you guys in Euros soon.

EUR/JPY – hasn’t really gotten out of the gate yet. BUT that SMA is holding and that’s pretty bullish. I think a long position here is warranted but with a hard stop as that SMA is dropping.

AUD/USD – same ID resolution as shown previously. We are good to go and I in particular like that SMA breach today. I expect it to be retested in the coming days so be prepared for that. My target here is 1.06.

Copper – an older trade which gave us a few entries near that Maginot Line. Time to take profits now boys and girls!

This one is going on our watch list – I have been watching the demise of USD/CAD for weeks now and was expecting a 100-day BB line touch. We finally got it and now I’m waiting for signs of a floor. Don’t get trigger happy here – we don’t know if this thing continues lower yet – we want to see some type of floor formation.

I have plenty of goodies for my intrepid subs – please step into my lair:
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Cotton is looking extremely interesting right now. Those two SMA have finally met and prices are right at the tip of that spear. I think a breach in either direction could turn into a big move.

Double inside day + NR4 on gold – you know what to do.

Ditto on silver – I plan on grabbing both when they finally break out.

ZB (30-year treasury futures) is touching two entangled SMAs, the 100-day and 25-day. I would love to see a bounce here and I am long with a stop below both SMAs.

The 10-year is looking a bit different and actually more bearish. This complicated the issue a bit but here I am actually focusing on the hourly panel. Seems that 100-hour SMA is posing as resistance and makes for great swing trade. Further the 100-hour SMA seems to line up with the 25-day SMA and a breach on the hourly panel could kick the daily into overdrive. Similarly a continued failure here is a great way to manage this trade.

Possible last kiss goodbye on the AUD/JPY – possible this thing continues higher. If it fails then I would be equally excited as there’s nothing but air below. So that Maginot line is the big separation point and thus good for managing long/short trades.

EUR/AUD also sitting ont the fence. After we excited I was suggesting a little sideways action or a correction. We still seem to be in corrective mode but any gyrations here will be worth the pain if catch a break out. This one is a mover and it gets going it moves in almost straight lines. So keep this one on your watch list. I’m long here with a stop below that Maginot Line. Will flip if we start dropping back below.

Cheers,