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Biding My Time
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Biding My Time

by The MoleApril 19, 2016

You may have noticed the lack of setups in the past week or so and I can assure you that it’s not for a lack of trying. However at the current time good directional entries seem to be few and far between. Fortunately we are in the mid of earning season and that may open up some opportunities for some nifty neutral volatility plays. If I take any I’ll be sure to share them here of course. In the interim I prefer to bide my time and wait for better odds to present themselves.

2016-04-19_spoos_LT

The Dollar keeps getting slaughtered and that’s been providing a lift to equities and precious metals in particular. At the danger of sounding like a broken record here: I would be extremely cautious betting against the bulls here. Despite my repeated calls for caution some of you guys continue to look for short opportunities in what now has grown into an extended 2-month short squeeze. And a healthy one I may add with the obligatory but small pullbacks which have served as reloading opportunities.

Caveat auctor!

All bearish momentum notwithstanding (see my massive momo update a week ago) the bulls are playing the tape like a fiddle, burning down any resistance in their path. We’ve seen some wild intra-day swings which doesn’t really speak to the long term quality of this rally. Notwithstanding the spoos continue to burn higher and were able to breach through not just one but two monthly NLSLs overnight. Although I’m sure there will be a bit of back tracing during the session (it already had begun) I don’t think the bulls are simply going to take profits and quietly walk into the sunset. The S&P cash is trading a little over 100 handles away from its historical highs – the bulls have smelled blood and surely have that target in their sights.

2016-04-19_silver_LT

Silver is a long way from its former glory days (who still uses one of those silver bars as a paperweight?) but has been enjoying quite a bid overnight as well. It’s now touching its 100-week SMA, a weekly NLBL at 16.17, and a monthly NLBL at 16.41. The 25-month SMA isn’t far away either, so I would expect to see a bit of profit taking to take place here shortly. If you’re long then you may at least lighten the load a little and set your trails accordingly.

Words To The Unwise

My fingers are itching and just like you I would love to start dipping into setups – but I must exert restraint and so should you. Don’t try to call a top here – many have tried and failed in the last week alone. The tape is not giving us much in technical context on the way up here and until we see price paint some of that we need to sit tight and continue to wait it out.

Now if you happen to be long – do nothing. Set your trail and don’t overthink it. This is the type of of tape that can keep running way beyond your wildest expectations and that means it’s your chance to let your winners run. And that really is half the game 😉


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Billabong

    Good Morning! As mentioned above, the $$$ is declining again today. From GC to PA to HG are all up this morning ……

  • Round we go

    Die qqq die!

  • Yoda

    Mole, what’s your take on the zero signal since the open given how extended the rally is?

  • mugabe

    except vs yen. yen’s been weak the last few days but I seriously doubt the up move is over. aud v strong recently.
    imo, if you’re based in us dollars, a weak dollar is a great scenario for diversifying into other currencies.
    I’m euro based and am currently long yen and aud (and gold) in two of my accounts -trend following/momentum

  • captainboom

    FWIW, I think it’s going to be an up trend day, and any down pointing blue arrows can be ignored. Strong positive and staying there will probably continue up.

  • Ronebadger

    NDX is not playing with the rest of the kids today…so far

  • ridingwaves

    you and Mole’s bullishness is giving me hope on some underwater short positions

  • Yoda

    Something looks different this time. Kinda like a capitulation buy day. Let us see where we are headed after Europe’s close.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Muwahaha.

    but that reminds me. Gap fill B!tchez
    [QQQ]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p72349466645

  • Yoda
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’ll be out most of the morning. Apparently I have this day job and have to keep up appearances.

    Silver, Boo-Yah.
    out-of-range for sure now.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p37206403009
    -GG

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Learn the Dark side, your path is incomplete!
    😉

  • mugabe

    lol. In my three accounts I’m only majorly long US equities in one of them at the moment.
    I haven’t really got a view. I just trade, and not with great frequency, based on rules/momentum. This means I miss tops and bottoms. The action is obviously bullish now but who knows about future?

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Or not

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Still short ES from yesterday. Although my usual NQ short would’ve worked out better, they are leading down much more compared to ES.

  • Round we go

    Come on die you fing pig of a market!

  • ridingwaves

    but who knows about future

    certainly not I. maybe Stephen Hawking

  • captainboom

    Yep. Zero didn’t stay strong positive, so not surprising.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Support is in the upper 70’s. I’ll probably exit around there. The overall trend is still up until proven otherwise!

  • Yoda

    (roll eyes)

  • Billabong

    Why short ES? I not only got buy signals on YM / ES this morning, they also hit multi-month highs on the daily. The chart says uptrend…

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Its a scalp. A retracement is needed for higher prices.

  • Billabong

    :-)))))))

  • Round we go

    you telling me your long here?

  • Yoda

    No. I roll eyes seeing you shout at the tape.

  • Round we go

    its the dark force, yoda.

  • Yoda

    Indeud, with your emotions the dark side plays.But beware of the dark side. Anger, fear, aggression; the dark side of the Force are they. Easily they flow, quick to join you in a fight. If once you start down the dark path, forever will it dominate your destiny, consume you it will, as it did Sr. Mole’s numerous apprentices. Control, control. You must learn control.

  • Round we go

    anger, fear, and aggression is not something to run away from. You learn much more from anger, fear, aggression and losing. The light can not exist unless there is dark. in nature both exist, and god loves them equally. if you live only in light, you are living half a life. equally if you only live in dark, you are living only half the life. understanding of both gives you the balance to understand the greater picture.

  • mugabe

    offer to manage your boss’s money – sure he’ll understand

  • Yoda

    Do not force darkness when light abounds. Everything comes in its own due time. Like night after day.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    closed TVIX short for +.25R earlier this morn. Have a small SPY short target 207-207.5

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Looking to put on double short TVIX/ XIV in near future too

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Never fails 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    This may help.

    .

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Tougher read today. They tried to bang it higher at the open but somehow ran out of mojo. We saw a little profit taking here but as of right now I don’t see a bearish case really. The signal is a bit all over the place and we may see more chop chop into the close.

    .

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s my crew? Getting bored? 😉

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    This tape has been extremely boring lately.

  • Round we go

    I am waiting for dollar to gets assbin gear.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    space hermit

    The Dark side has girls.
    😉

  • Yoda

    Probably a lot of nervous traders covered shorts and entered new longs at the open. If WVAP does not hold or if today’s low is breached, things should get interesting very quickly.

  • Yoda

    Banking some serious coins on PMs. Waiting for a good set-up on the main indexes.

  • Round we go

    Im getting into led grow lights. Crazzy now we can grow better than the sun. I am happy. I think there are opportunities. But the credit needs a cleansing. Before you get real investment.

  • Billabong

    The Bullish Percent Index now has 9 / 12 sectors 79% or higher … the highest is still utilities. Utilities being the highest at 97% surprised me considering how “bullish” the major markets are. Combine this with rising PMs and you have in your face divergence on sector movement. And the NASDAQ (+417 … highest in 2 yrs) and NYSE (OB @ 1052) summation indexes are very high.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    my how things change in 3 weeks.
    onward and upward!!

    right Round?
    https://disqus.com/home/discussion/evilspeculator/back_to_work_tuesday_setups/#comment-2595069470

  • BKXtoZERO

    put it this way, I like the words to the unwise section.

  • wandering196

    I feel like your first picture today

  • Yoda

    No, the dark side are girls. Besides, on the light side we get to be friends with animals. 😉

  • Round we go

    smug and arrogant. but never lays down a bet.

  • mugabe

    some interesting historical correlations … or lack of

    http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2016/04/mean-reversion-from-the-lost-decade/

  • Round we go
  • mugabe

    he’s got a donald trump type expression

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    pearls before swine.

  • wandering196

    Lol. I’m not touching that one

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You shouldn’t read that shit.

  • mugabe

    disagree … bullish on lean hogs

  • mugabe

    you know you’ve got serious problems upstairs when the tape shouts back

  • ridingwaves

    the widow maker could see 2.5 area if 2.20 holds..

  • ridingwaves
  • ford8n47

    mole..did you just post a comment on cnbc?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Uuuuhh nope – I don’t visit that site – like ever…

  • ford8n47

    I was reading news about a stock when a article pop up came up and saw your avatar and read the comment and thought…that is not him…article about how stocks were going to fall 25%. I stay away from the news. THANKS!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    My avatar? Mmmh – did it say Evil Speculator?

  • ford8n47

    http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/19/buckle-up-stocks-could-drop-25-percent-or-more-commentary.html
    Go to the comment section…..I could not pull up the avatar.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • ford8n47

    Well that is my chuckle for the morning! Thanks! I like Snidley better!

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    I loved that series.

  • ford8n47

    First Movie was the best…..rest sucked. Never watched the series.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    The movie!!! Much better. But the series was entertaining.

  • Ronebadger

    Market opens flat…VIX takes a dive of 5%+ ???

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III