Blood From A Stone

One of the most difficult but crucial lessons I had to learn as a trader was how to pick your markets, and most importantly when to recognize that additional input in effort does not result in more monetary output, perhaps even to the contrary. As a general rule, attempting to force order and directional bias onto a volatile or even borderline chaotic market environment can only lead to frustration, stress, and in the end financial losses.

TL;DR: You can’t draw blood from a stone.

Don’t get me wrong – I appreciate your enthusiasm and my only contention is that it may be a tad misdirected.

NYSE volume reflects quite a bit of bot activity and I don’t expect this to change until the end of the vacation season. With less participation markets can be banged all over the place at the slightest mention of a China trade deal happening or not happening. Which incidentally is now occurring on an hourly basis.

Implied vol courtesy of the VIX continues to drag lower and given the chart above it’s not surprising that the ES futures have dropped back down overnight. Are we having fun yet? 😉

The volume chart shows us landlocked between 2780 and 2940 for the foreseeable future. The daily candles on their own reflect a market capable of inflicting a lot of pain on anyone willing to stick their neck out and make large directional bets.

My advice: Take a few days off and enjoy the summer weather – perhaps spend some time watching the masterclasses many of you bought last week. Remember, depending on where you reside a cold winter is merely a few weeks away.