Borderline

UPDATE 9:44am EST: Good morning rats! So far so good I say – those payroll numbers helped us bust through several RLs but I have an inkling some upside might be developing. The 918 has a 93% chance of holding – not the kind of odds I want to tinker with. I’m going to buy an ES contract right here – very nice spot and if we somehow but through 907/100 I’d happily drop it again.

UPDATE 11:15am EST: Nothing much to report right now. We are stuck between 907 and 918 for now – I frankly have doubts that we’ll move below this zone today. Prepare yourself for one healthy serving of whipsaw.

UPDATE 11:56am EST: As I thought – we’re above 918 again. I think this sucker is going to be nasty and it’ll take a strong sell signal to overcome it – at least today. TNX is flat, nothing to report on that front.

Yen is a bit overbought on a short term basis – see the YM/Yen correlation chart above. This could be bullish for equities in the coming hour.

UPDATE 12:17pm EST: Yen swung up over the 80 again – it’s doing the snake wiggle here. So, until further notice bearish pressure on equities will probably be upon us. If we see the Yen drop hard it might precede higher prices in equities. I say might because correlations are kind of loose right now.

UPDATE 12:56pm EST: Berk dug out a few nice short setups: GOOG, WYNN, MA, BIDU. I’m not crazy about BIDU but love the others – and they are all part of our favorite list (which I posted back when and which you should have already in your Prophet charts as a watch list).

UPDATE 1:10pm EST: Yen just fell off the plate – this the chance for the bulls to grab some points in equities. Let’s see what happens – we are about to bust through the VWAP on the NQ – YM is still below 8803 pivot (VWAP at 8812) – ES just dropped again – pivot at 914 (VWAP at 914 again). That’s some monster resistance for equities and if they cannot cease the moment right now I don’t see much upside.

UPDATE 2:43pm EST: Something that caugh my attention today was that Gold dropped along with the Dollar today – that’s a bit strange and does not bode well for the shiny metal:

Very nice – so, Gold now drops along with equities and the Dollar. I keep telling you guys – 650 before we see 1000.

UPDATE 2:53pm EST: Equities are weak today – even unable to exploit a drop in the Yen: