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November 18, 2015

Misses Mean Reversion 2015 Runner Ups

A few years back I wrote a post [1] in which I profiled one of the main deadly sins of retail trader ignominy – the ubiquitous and often almost fanatic anticipation of mean reversion. I am not going to regurgitate my point; if you are a culprit (and you know you are) then I strongly recommend you read my old post and perhaps also one of my more recent ones [2]. If you’re a noob here then you may also want to point your browser toward our all time favorites page [3]. The holidays are nigh and tis the season to debug your brain and start the new year fresh.

However book knowledge is one thing – seeing things play out in reality is quite another. Let me [...]

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November 12, 2015

Support Zones

I’m looking for support zones here as I don’t really trust this sell off. I’ll get to the why later but suffice to say that momentum on the way down has been rather pitiful which strongly points toward the scenario I proposed two weeks back: A pre-bear-slaughtering-season-shake-out followed by a Santa Rally pinning equities near positive for the year. After that it’s every man for himself – I expect a huge shake out for 2016.

I mentioned momentum on the way down and this is what I was talking about. The sheer fact that we enjoyed such a smashing swing trading session yesterday is a bit out of character. This is the spot where gravity [...]

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August 14, 2015

Heavy Metal Friday

The Eurogroup meeting is starting in a few minutes and I hope that it won’t blow too many of my setups out of the water. I’m already seeing a lot of talk of why Draghi may jawbone the Euro down, which is why I’m glad that I made several runs to the ATM over the past few days (meaning a short squeeze may be coming).

Anyway it looks like it’s going to be a heavy metal Friday folks! Gold is back down for a bit of mean reversion and I’m liking it long here.

Similarly silver may be a long here – I’m taking out a teeny weeny position with a stop below 15.250.

So yes, the Euro may drop lower today but in [...]

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July 28, 2015

Dangling By A Thread

Once again we are trading near bearish territory but I don’t mean to attach any directional bias via this post’s title. We all have seen major support come and go many times over the past few years. In most cases they served as great opportunities for the bulls to BTFD. Now clearly market conditions are shifting and the bearish case has been gaining a lot of credence over the past few months. However short of having a crystal ball the best we can do is to position ourselves appropriately near important inflection points and monitor the tape carefully for early clues. But have no fear – the Mole is on the case, as usual.

We are actually enjoying quite [...]

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Confirmation BiasConfirmation Bias
    When equities turns volatile each added gyration serves to stir the collective emotional cesspool of market participants. An unfortunate cognitive bias we as human beings all share is … more
Key Concepts In Risk Management
A Sucker Born Every Minute
Game Changer
State Of Volatility
Statistics Galore
Fooled By Randomness