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December 2, 2020

Trouble In Paradise

Everything but the U.S. Dollar seems to be ramping higher these days. Bitcoin is back over $19k with HODLERs projecting it to be at $30k sometime next year. The smugness in the crypto waterholes I monitor is literally oozing out of everyone’s pores.

550
 
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November 18, 2020

The Big Disconnect

With the S&P 500 mostly treating water this week the big question in my mind was what the heck is driving the Russell to advance higher as if being juiced by a double dose of Martin Armstrong’s Tour de France special. Time to lift up the market’s skirt and dive in for a closer inspection.

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November 16, 2020

The Taking Candy From A Baby Trade

The option market continues to do a horrible job in handicapping risk which is evidenced by the fact that expected move ranges all across the board are repeatedly being taken to the woodshed. We’ve got a situation now in which IV is steadily trickling lower whilst blatantly ignoring the wild moves we keep seeing all across equities. In conjunction with what I’m seeing in the VX futures and other pertinent measures this presents us with a juicy EOY trading opportunity I call ‘the taking candy from a baby’ trade.

482
 
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November 13, 2020

The Big Bad Double Back Ratio Runoff

Try to say that one three times in a row – heck, I tried! Anyway, it’s now ten days post election election day and we still do not have an official tally (don’t start with me!) and vote by the electoral college. The market isn’t liking this limbo situation one bit as trading whilst strapped to a chair with a Damocles sword dangling over your head isn’t exactly anyone’s definition of wholesome entertainment. Plus it seems everyone’s getting tired of the endless drama and just wants 2020 to be written off as a the year you shall never speak of again.

397
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NEW! Market Statistics
Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Status Quo BiasStatus Quo Bias
    Something pretty interesting happened over the weekend as I was cruising Airbnb for potential weekend get-aways here on the Iberian Peninsula. Since I’ve always been …
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