Coiled Up To The Max

As you are probably already aware – the Federal Open Market Committee begins a two-day meeting on Wednesday and will deliberate the first interest rate increase in nearly a decade. Analysts seem to be split over the outcome however I would be rather surprised if the Fed decides to hike. Yes, there has been a lot of pertinent jaw boning since late last year. But behind all the spouted rhetoric hides very tangible fear about the shock waves a hike may cause. For one the Dollar would most likely punch massively higher – affording the mighty Mole an even more lavish and immoral lifestyle over here in poverty stricken Spain. Expect me to buy up massive amounts of property and elect myself the rightful ruler of Valencia. Heck maybe I even change my last name to Borgia and re-implement prima nocta.

But all joking aside – while everyone is treating water we rats have work to do. No other chart shows us the accumulated anticipation like the E-Mini futures and I have decided to post a tryptic so that you are able to take in the entire context, starting at the daily, the weekly, and most importantly the monthly panel.

You don’t have to be seasoned analyst to see that the daily is now curled up to the max. That first drop down may either have been this year’s correction or it will be remembered as the first dip that preceded a massive slide lower in equities. If I had any idea as to where this pendulum may swing I would offer it. However we are literally sitting at the gates of hell with almost perfect context across all three time frames. By anyone’s definition this is a very bearish looking chart. But I have seen too many stick saves in the past few years to count out the bulls just yet. Thus, lacking any further evidence and with daily/weekly/monthly support levels yet intact I have decided to hold my small long positions I placed last week.

Bonds update – here I have gotten a bit more luck. The Friday entry was well placed and I am now moving my stop to break/even.

I’m waiting for a little bounce higher so that I can get short gold. Willing to be long above the 100-hour SMA but only 1/3R if it plays out this way.

Where is the gold!!? Anyone remember this awesome band from the 1980s? I used to dance my ass off on that tune way back in the days – we’re talking spiky hair and Doc Martin boots – the works. Unfortunately they just don’t make raw uncompromised music  like this anymore. Whether or not you like EBM – in today’s PC soaked social media policed environment this feels like a refreshing air of authenticity from the past…

Anyway, quite a bit more looming below the fold – please step into my lair:

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Cheers,