Crude Disposition

Crude remains to be one of the most interesting charts on my radar right now. If you’ve been coming here for a while then you are hopefully enjoying the ride since the 85 cluster retest which I suggested was the quiet before the storm. Let’s work ourselves top down starting with the P&F  for some general context.

Our official long signal occurred on December 3rd when we got a triple top breakout. Since then there hasn’t been a change in the projected bullish price objective of 99. I hope you were around then and got a chance to ride this one up.

On a long term basis crude is in the process of overcoming weekly (100-w) and monthly (25-m) resistance. On the monthly panel it’s rather easy to see a symmetrical triangle formation which suggests that the odds are favoring the bulls and the bullish PO suggested by our P&F.

Short term I am however prepared for a quick shake out. The right panel shows what I refer to as ‘context’ – meaning an accumulation of inside and outside period with no apparent direction. This suggests to me that we’ll either see quick shake out or continuation higher into 99 and possibly higher. Use the double inside day today to place positions – it may take a bit of doing but once again I think the prospective gain will outweigh the pain.

Quick update on gold – again I hope you stuck around yesterday as we got a great opportunity for a clean entry near the 25-day SMA. Since we already breached yesterday this switched us into a short position. The target is yet undefined, let’s see what we’ll get in terms of velocity – it is still possible that this is a false breach.
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The greenback seems to be failing its 25-day SMA and has already tested its daily NLSL. If we breach below it will trigger our official short signal. May the Lord have mercy with our exchange rates…

Copper – great setup although it may not be apparent at first sight. That outside candle today certainly is a bit out irregular but I think the left panel puts things nicely into context. That rising diagonal is well defined and if we drop a big lower we may get a retest of that. Of course as long as the 100-day SMA is holding up it’s worth a shot for a long position. Thus far the bulls remain to have the upper hand here – I would not think bearish until I see a bonafide breakdown of that diagonal.

Natgas – 100-day SMA retest and the 25-day is right below. Then there’s a NLSL which may provide additional support. This suggests to me a long here is justified with a stop below the NLSL. If that one gives then I’d flip it for a long position.

My FX charts are broken right now and I about had it with TOS. I am going to purchase another data feed and start plotting things via NinjaTrader starting Monday. Also, I am going to parse for some stock symbols in the next hour or two and tack them on here if I run into anything of interest.

Enjoy your weekend!

Cheers,