Crude Remarks

Apologies for the somewhat belated post this morning. I usually try to get it out near the opening bell, but needed to deal with a Zero auto-reload problem which seems to be caused by newer versions of Google Chrome. It seems to be fixed now, so if you are a Zero sub then please point your browser here and wait for the page to auto-load every 20 seconds. If the embedded Zero snapshot does not update (i.e. is being cached locally) then please send me an email to admin@.

Now on to business! Crude has my attention this morning and I am actually a bit late on the trigger here and should have grabbed a long position late last night or very early this morning on my end (we Euro-traders get all the early birds). I think the setup here is pretty clear – a nice established and tested spike low after a quick sell off. The daily panel as LKGB written all over it and thus I am long with humble exposure as I never trust crude to not throw me another curve ball.

Here’s the long term view for your edification. Quite frankly this could go either way here BUT the weekly BB is pinched almost to the max. There is a YUGE move looming ahead and no matter which way it goes I want a seat on the bus.

Campaign Updates

That exhaustion spike on soybean oil was my clue to grab my ill-gotten gains and run for the hills. Unfortunately, if you recall, I had snoozed on that or realized it too late. So I did advance my stop to about 1.3R and that’s where it got snagged in the long slew of red candles that followed. Actually this was a great campaign however and although there is always a coulda or woulda I’m fine with the turn-out. Even with an automated system (or perhaps especially with one) it is extremely difficult to handle a switch from low or medium (realized) volatility to high volatility. You grab what you can and the rest is a mix of luck and duct tape.

Bonds on the other hand is making us proud and I’m advancing my trail to 1.5R near 154 and change.  This is looking extremely encouraging by the way and that daily NLBL could propel the ZB quite a bit higher.

Silver for some reason followed soybean oil and I’m now out at break-even. It happens and especially on precious metals which love to shake off participants ahead of a big move. Incidentally the daily panel suggests a reversal and fast drive to the upside may be coming soon.

By the way, the stop out here didn’t exactly surprise me and I’m actually glad we got out at break/even. You may recall the long term chart I had posted which suggested resistance courtesy of the 100-week SMA, a weekly NLBL and the 25-month SMA directly above.

I wouldn’t mind being short silver right here but then there is this:

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