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Dollar Ceiling Shattered
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Dollar Ceiling Shattered

by The MoleAugust 10, 2018

It took a few months of frustrating churn and burn, but the Dollar glass ceiling at 95.5 has finally been broken. I am watching with glee as the EUR/USD is now in danger of dropping below its 100-week SMA near 1.1465 which also lines up with its 25-month SMA. What happens next is key as continuation lower on the EUR cross is probably going to trigger some good old fashioned panic selling.

Behold the carnage that is the EUR/USD right now. Serves them about right for bidding up a doomed globalist monopoly currency in favor over King Almighty Dollar. Hallelujah – I’m feeling outright saintly today for repeatedly having told ya so!

And here are the DX futures in all their glory. 9.5 has officially been recaptured and although retests are to be expected the 100-day SMA is going to be serve as medium term support going forward.

What’s also history is my latest E-Mini campaign. One week of hassle and all I got to show for is one measly R in profits. Embarrassing… but King Dollar is clearly exerting a gravitational pull on everything right now.

I’m also finally out of silver. Just yesterday I was happy to see it push back into break even, but when it produced a spike high there I decided to cut and run. Not something I usually do but as I mentioned above – the Dollar is stomping all over everything right now. Best to get out of the way and keep a low profile.

Soybeans was on the menu on Wednesday and I was holding off for a dip below 892.75. Which now is in place but once again, given a raging Dollar I’m going to give this one a miss.

Besides, I’m already in corn and that one is down 0.5R. I don’t think it’s a lost cause but since both soybeans and corn seem very correlated right now I won’t add to my exposure.

One possible entry today or Monday but I’ve got to keep that one for my intrepid subs:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Yoda

    nah. sell bucky and buy gold.

  • randomuser6789

    Don’t fight the trend.

  • Yoda

    Way too late to be a dollar bull at this stage

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yeah, that has worked so well over the past few years.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    We shall see….

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Yoda

    Here is why I think the DX bull move is a trap
    All stops below have been burned and retail is now short EURUSD https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fe17aae77ef05bf0998bdeb8973f5d99067420a263d3a17f082f91c630e20094.png

  • Yoda
  • Mark Shinnick

    Nailed outside objective pretty good so covered tvix for time being.

  • Yoda

    Further the strength in bonds is not supportive of a strength in DX

  • Yoda

    STFR day!

  • Mark Shinnick
  • Yoda

    On a long term basis, the failure of the SPX in making a new high would be super bearish. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/43bb8949abcfd4ed08049315cafd7ac7f3df19421f1512bf0f8736d491a09af6.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    ….but what would be the most Evil in the shorter term?

  • Tomcat

    Well said!!!

  • Tomcat

    give it a couple of days/weeks/months, and you will likely to see a blow off top

  • Mark Shinnick
  • Yoda

    We are seeing a flight to safety now, creating a ST demand for bucky

  • HD

    nice trade Mark

  • Tomcat

    This has to be the tweet of the month:
    $AAPL dividend day. Warren Buffett got a check for $180 million for breakfast. I had some fruit.

  • HD

    SPX hitting HWB August

  • Mark Shinnick

    Really hope this kicks Turkeys nuts …idiots.

  • Yoda

    Or we have already seen the blow-off top last January and a failed retest of it this month. In that case, watch out below

  • Yoda

    Those who sweat right now are banks with outstanding loans with the Turks

  • Tomcat

    I think its safe to say, that many of us here, are bears at heart, and would like for you to be right, but that doesn’t mean to be blind to the price action which is clearly saying: BEARS DROP YOUR PANTS

  • Tomcat

    I saw a tweet from one of the Financial news channels that the entire Turkish stock market is worth like $150B, THAT IS PEANUTS.

  • Mark Shinnick

    …wonder if this hooks back in some bears pretty good and enough for the time being. We’re still in volatility crush zone, after all so far.

  • Yoda

    Blind I am not, but open to all scenarios I am given the seasonality we are in right now

  • HD

    SPX 10 handle range, so far. Looks very normal.

  • Yoda

    About the Turkish stockmarket no one gives a flying f.

  • Mark Shinnick

    You give good handle πŸ™‚

  • HD

    nice bounce πŸ™‚

  • HD

    money is the same no matter if it’s made long or short.

  • Darkthirty

    Those are silicone

  • Tomcat

    that was in response to your point about the banks worrying…if the stock market is less than NFLX market cap, they don’t give a flying f… let alone lose any sleep over the Lira or the turks. The ones that should be losing sleep, are the Germans whose borders will be flooded most likely…

  • Yoda

    The problem is not the TSM but rather the T bonds market, and foreign banks exposure to it

  • Tomcat

    So how big is that relative to the stock market cap?

  • Tomcat

    oh and please no quoting from that shit-show that is ZH.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    10 handle bounce.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    it’s not about finance they are worrying about – political instability..Turkey is right in the middle…

  • Mark Shinnick

    I’ll take it…maybe some spinner too πŸ™‚

  • Kishore Kumar

    More and more bounce for every ounce! As Jerry Seinfeld should have said,”Those are real and they are spectacular”!

  • Yoda
  • BKXtoZERO

    Out of TVIX from 33.5 at 33.9, not the way to be though. Jeez. scalping only for me,

  • BKXtoZERO

    We just watched the movie Love and Mercy about Brian. Also whipped out the Pet Sounds box set and listened to the whole thing!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s my crew? Here’s a Zero snappy:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e5c803cc1d2015f5eb739c18ba4b9e2068aebbbe70546b7434d9aa7badbb3b0c.png

    Signal is all over the place today. I’d stay out.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    So what exactly happened to Julie and the GG? I haven’t seen them all week.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Word.

  • HD

    PHX keeps getting rocked by massive haboobs. GG May have moved to the bunker.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Dee Doo Dee Doo Twilight zone I was in an all day conference yesterday with 9 people. On the way home filled up the gas tank Exactly 9 gallons.Ordered pizza for dinner and 9 slices in the box. Looked at a battery clock in the living room and it stopped exactly at 9:00

    Today arrived at work at exactly 9:00 am Made omelettes for breakfast and exactly 9 eggs were in the carton. Looked outside and 9 crows sitting on the fence in the backyard. In my coin purse exactly 9 pennies. My husband likes dry roasted peanuts that he mixes with raisins for a snack At the store YUP two for 9 dollars DEE DOO DEE DOO Twilight Zone !
    JULIE

  • HD

    SPX opened this week 2839. That’s a giant island top w a lot of supply above.

  • HD

    Niner

  • BKXtoZERO

    I think they are forming their own TA blog together called Ichi Keltner dot com

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Chief I have been very busy at work with people on vacation
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi HD SPX the bounce today off the 13 ema . BAC the bounce off the 21 ema
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I already thought you and the gold gerb had eloped together.

  • daverg

    Who cuts a pizza into 9 slices ??? , normally you get 8. There is no way a reasonable person can cut it into 9 slices. Was it a square pizza ?

  • Yoda

    He’d wish

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Plus I’m next in line. Of course only if something very tragic and sudden would inflict her husband (cough cough).

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Nine pieces? That means one person didn’t bring a date and will ruin the evening by moping around. Not on my watch.

  • Yoda

    Sounds like we’re about to do a conga line πŸ˜‰

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Limbo.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief In high school I had a crush on a guy His last name “Molson” LOL !
    JULIE

  • bankwalker
  • HD

    ZW finally got the move!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GLD I am down approx 2 bucks Very strong support 114 – 115. on the weekly chart.
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    True….I re-entered around 33.62

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GLD gets legs here then up to 118
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    nice… I was going to buy expecting break out w tight stop but it is daddy daughter day…. off Friday so I can’t be glued to a screen

  • Ronebadger

    Musta been a sicilian or grandma pie…what kinda Italian place cuts a neapolitan pie into 9? What do they know about pizza in MT? https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a31c609d6793d245ebcb02edbd14c735188d80afebf9b47b5573ecc80f7c6574.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    If a blonde counts pizza in the woods, is the count correct?

  • Ronebadger
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Number 9 is the number of death.
    and an impossible lover!

    https://www.numerology.com/numerology-numbers/9

  • Mark Shinnick

    Nothing can ever compare with that, just fantastic πŸ™‚

    Does this thing eyeball measure up to you into 40?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi GG GLD Looking for a bounce at this support zone with weekly RSI at 28 Matches your red envelope https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e231cd79744ceccf3fd53e3708dbac5f2c3ff7e39f11b7d05f5dd346811e3fbd.png JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Would that be with or without glasses on ?
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    your trailing stop is the no-brainer signal. the drop is slower, so I
    don’t expect a nice V move as in 2016.
    the bottom is out there. I intend to grab it with both hands.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG A bounce here targets 118 which is a strong resistance meeting the declining daily 55 ema
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    that’s the thing. lots of overhead MA’s now. all or some which can be ceilings now.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG A bounce will target RSI 40 – 60 on the daily chart
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    USO A break below the support zone and the uptrend line targets approx 13. Possible small bear flag developing A further advance going to watch the upper trend line of channel drawn JULIE

  • HD

    SPX at 2-4 TL. 2826

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/77cc7f2afa464d05601fd5c38c0070f6ea1d2029b4cf38e5b9156a838b082024.png Watching the 21 ema and lower trend line. A break below going to watch the 34 ema closely matching a support. Will only short a lower high on a bounce. Currently on sidelines and watching like a hawk JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    The fattest mouse grabs the middle part of the cheese !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Mark Shinnick

    …speaking of food….is this all now a bear nothing burger today?

  • HD

    Nice 10 handle bounce!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Back to work Three more hours Everyone Have A Great Weekend !
    JULIE

  • daverg

    holy moses, I am in pizza heaven !!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’ve been re-watching Breaking Bad and we’re already halfway though the fifth season. What an amazing show it was – I’ll probably watch it again five years from now!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Yoda
  • BKXtoZERO

    40? I am just out of sync…. ON the gas, OFF the gas…. I have no idea what comes next.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Bears let’s get the lower high on a bounce to throw the kitchen sink at it on a short
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ..glad you like it Captain.

    here’s a bigger weekly you should keep an eye on.
    You should be paying *me* bitcoin for this one.

    Hell, put it in the subscriber section.
    Pearls before swine is such an ugly thing
    LOL.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3455c1d5e736bca4c3b19bc28d1a2cf3a62f280e0a66571ce7a621f1943fc793.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    always the bear eh?

    get this for Grizz come Xmas. LOL
    https://odditymall.com/realistic-bear-sleeping-bag

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG This feathered friend is going to bring the World Markets down ! JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9ffbb5aa7f3f5e591075167cf199a529f2f00e7d195acb5ad16507f9f3156baf.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    make sure you cook it in GREECE. We’ve been through these so many times, I’ve lost count.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ps. Turkey is 17th on the global GDP list.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

    (yawn)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    *sputter*

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GDP equivalent to Illinois
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    LOL
    Illinois is going down! beans and bullets, grab the gear!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    the bag was Grizz, not *you*.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Illinois even cancelled payments to winners of Illinois Lottery. Unreal GG
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    well, you know the Good Book.

    ” You will know them by their fruits. Do men gather grapes from thornbushes or figs from thistles? 17 Even so, every good tree bears good fruit, but a bad tree bears bad fruit. 18 A good tree cannot bear bad fruit, nor can a bad tree bear good fruit. 19 Every tree that does not bear good fruit is cut down and thrown into the fire. 20 Therefore by their fruits you will know them.”

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG I believe that is in the Book of Matthew. Also the Lord feeds the birds and will also feed his followers
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    wait.
    are we the two witnesses?!?!?
    πŸ˜‰

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG The Lord told me to marry my husband That he was the one
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I don’t know about that.
    but parental approval is HIGHLY recommended. (as you have stated)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG He was the only boyfriend that my dad liked LOL ! Definite approval from Dad and Mom !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    that McDonalds drive thru guy, now *that’s* the one you should have married.
    very generous soul.
    poor dude.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG That was a “One and Done” ! !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Julie,
    did you hear about the guy who suicided by airplane?

    He’s been identified as 29-year old Richard β€œBeebo” Russell β€” a Horizon Air employee described by friends and family as “an avid traveler, a high-school football standout and Christian youth leader who once operated an Oregon bakery with his wife,” according to the Seattle Times.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Did you know that MT and AZ are represented very high in the military as a percentage of population Oregon ranks in the middle and California ranks in the bottom 10 Georgia ranks number one.
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I would think Texas would rank #1.
    the harsher the environment, the tougher the population.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG I also read that South Dakota now ranks higher than Florida for destinations for retirement. cost of living etc …
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    want an education?
    the CARR fire wasn’t a wild fire. that’s right.
    https://forbiddenknowledgetv.net/house-sliced-in-half-by-dews-in-carr-fire/

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I read that it was caused by a vehicle being towed ?
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    watch the video when you get a chance.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Futures today started off minus 9 I believe
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I went to an horchateria here in Valencia this weekend and they had a bunch of them:

    https://content.screencast.com/users/evilspeculator/folders/Jing/media/9c3601f5-918c-4bd9-85f7-f19a2a53a062/00021590.png