Embrace The Pain

It’s been another emotional gyration courtesy of this morning’s BLS jobs report – or should it be called the BS jobs report? Same difference. As Bill Gross put so aptly in his tweet: ‘Equity market rallies b/c 200,000+ workers stop looking for jobs & the U-Rate hits 7.7%.’ Nothing to see here – let’s move on to our charts. As you know I pretty much ignore the news – it’s simply fodder for volatility, nothing more and nothing less. Either you’re ahead of the news or you are behind the news – in the latter case it is absolutely meaningless to our trading activity.

Despite this morning’s commotion we are still inside the 1400 – 1420 no-man’s land. The good news is that we are holding the 1400 mark and the 100-day SMA. The better news of the day is that the BLS BS spiked us to the daily NLBL at 1424 where it promptly snapped back – at least this gave us an opportunity for a decent entry.

Here’s the zoomed-in version – up close and personal. Technically we have an inside day long breach courtesy of yesterday’s candle. As long as we close above 1413.5 today we ought to be making a push for a NLBL retest. May take a few days but thus far the bulls are steering the tape (as usual).

Let’s not forget that we are also dealing with a volume hole near 1420 – it’s not a chasm but it has offered resistance thus far. I continue to think that a close above the NLBL will get us to 1440 and probably higher. So embrace the pain of suffering through the current gyrations, what comes next should be more linear and more pleasant.

I put INTC on the map yesterday and it’s still a good setup if you’re interested. We are near the 25-hour SMA and that’s a great position to get long with a stop right below. Either it can breach that daily NLBL and the 25-day SMA or it’ll be slapped down again. So a short on a failure may not be out of the question.

And of course there’s more for my intrepid subs – I have to earn my Friday evening Hefeweizen after all! 😉
[amprotect=nonmember] More charts and non-biased commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
[/amprotect] [amprotect=1,13,9,12,5]

Bonds (ZB here) got slapped Lock Stock & Two Smoking Barrels style this morning. I’m seeing some support on the hourly and in particular on the daily. Now long with a stop below the 100-day SMA.

Copper is painting an inside day near a NLSL – that’s rather interesting, isn’t it? Also watch the hourly as that may give us early clues and entries. I’m currently long with a stop below the NLSL – again, no compunction flipping this if we drop below the NLSL and ID short trigger (love how they line up).

Gold is a bit quirky right now – my spidey sense tells me a big reversal may be in the works and I’ll take a breach of the inside day long trigger. I know – that’s not a very good ID setup – the reason I’m pimping it today is the OP we got following it. Mostly interested in a long setup here – would be great to see a reversal.

Cotton looking pretty bullish and it’s painting an inside day candle as well. I’m long already with as stop below the diagonal but you can wait for tomorrow’s trigger if you prefer. There is some air on the hourly panel and we may see a bit more shake out tape, so no rush taking this.

Crude also painting an inside day candle and it’s one of those rare instances at which I’m more interested in a short trade after a long preceding down candle. Everyone is just screaming break-down at me across all time frames, from the hourly up to the weekly. So I would prefer taking a short here tomorrow. You can simply follow the 25-hour SMA down if you prefer more fine control. May actually the better entry.

NZD/USD now touching daily resistance and painting an inside day candle. You know what to do.

GBP/USD – great setup actually. I’m long as soon as I see a breach of the 25-hour SMA. Possible support here on the daily side. Not interested in a short trade as it’s too cluttered down here.

CAD/JPY – boy, what a shake out this morning! I think a long position near the 25-hour may be a good entry. I suggest only a tiny position as there’s too much emotion over in FX right now.

AUD/USD – I still think that’s a good setup. Keeps whipsawing us around but it’s holding the 100-hour and that’s positive IMNSHO. So if you want to be long here at the 25-hour SMA then put a stop below and be done with it. I think the money shot will be a breach of the daily NLBL – which by the way is good for another session (i.e. Monday).

Well, you know what’s next for the Mole:

Simple pleasures, folks. Life doesn’t have to be complicated. Enjoy your weekend and I’ll see you on Sunday.

Cheers,