Even A Stopped Clock

Well, don’t come crying to me – I told you guys not to step in front of this speeding bus – and I fervently hope you heeded my advice. For some reason I keep seeing comments suggesting that some of you are still waiting for a turn. Which puzzles me a little bit – here you got a tape that just won’t quit, and instead of buying the dips you keep waiting for a u-turn. Meanwhile the shorts are being set on fire and with good reason – as long as there are suckers with an opinion left this thing is going to boil higher. Yes, eventually there will be a correction but until then why waste time and energy (and money) predicting it? If it’s any consolation – even a stopped clock is right twice a day 😉

But right now I worry less about equities than the pope’s retirement plans. I mean for crying out loud – in my book there’s only one way for a pope to retire and that’s via appointment with St. Peter! By the way the same applies for evil speculators – most likely I’ll still be posting nefarious charts while my long legged Swedish nanny is pushing me over the cliff. Heck, it’s a good way to go – you’ve got to know how make an exit.

Anyway, bonds are picking up momentum – to the downside. The 30-year is starting to look like a saw blade and I love those touches near my falling diagonal. The 25-day SMA is not far behind – use that if we get breaches above the diagonal.

The 10-year seems to be more stubborn and right now I’m seeing a little rising diagonal that appears to be failing. The 25-day is right above, so either way we’re getting a breach today.

The Dollar – my old ‘Sorgenkind’ (look it up) – no big surprise we’re getting an SMA retest. Can’t have ole’ bucky breach any meaningful resistance, can we? Not on Bernanke’s watch! Anyway, I digress – let’s stick with the technicals. No matter what I think about the Fed’s machinations this chart tells me to be long until that 100-day is being taken to the woodshed. I’d be short again below the SMA and that conveniently placed NLSL at almost exactly the psychologically important 80 mark.

So we’ve got a real inflection point here – if you missed the first entry then this is a great spot to get positioned. If we breach 80 and fall back below then here may be a good spot to establish some hedges. Assuming of course you pay your bills and groceries in Dollars and not with food stamps.

Cheers,