Sixth Time Is A Charm?

Thus far it’s been a ramp & camp day, which is a bit surprising as our early morning TICK window reading of 98.8% above zero triggered a high probability trend day. The spoos are currently crawling around at VWAP and participation has all but disappeared.

Perhaps not so coincidentally we are back at the ole’ volume hole. The ES 1420 mark obviously has meaning and thus serves as our separation point. Perhaps sixth time is a charm? A push above 1420 will probably result in upside acceleration. However a failure here could cause in a cascade lower.

Early this morning I posted about a short term entry right at the 100-hour SMA on the E-Mini. It turned out to be a very profitable trade but despite the fact that we have accelerated higher I want to emphasize that the 100-hour should be observed should equities take a dive lower again.

The daily panel shows us some support at the 100-day and if things remain where they are right now then we ought to trigger a NLBL entry today. Which would put us into cautiously bullish mode but I would not risk more chump change until we clear thee ole’ volume hole.

Hindsight is always 20:20 and I wanted to post out that UVOL on the NYSE outweighed DVOL yesterday’s. The day felt bearish but the data suggested otherwise.

A quick revisit of yesterday’s NZD/USD update. That ST breach triggered us long yesterday and it’s been some easy pips since. I would probably start taking profits here as we are heading into daily resistance.

Some more setups for my intrepid subscribers – please join me in the lair:
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Gold is looking very interesting right now. On the daily panel it seems that it’s attempting to build a floor. This may fail or not – we shall see. Our setup however is the 100-hour SMA with which it seems destined to collide shortly. I would be long there with a stop below. Flipping this trade is a definite possibility as those are fast candles and a continuation lower cannot be ruled out.

The Dollar meanwhile is looking conflicted. On the hourly it’s run into a NLBL which I think it has a reasonable chance clearing.  This would make it a long trade for me. On the daily we should be okay as long as that 25-day SMA remains unchallenged.

Bonds – the 30-year is sitting at hourly support right now and i want to be long. The daily story is more complicated. We are obviously curling up here and I want to be on the big bus when it takes off. Based on the daily pattern we should reverse again, right? But this will only work until it finally fails and there’s a NLSL right below. I say let’s be long until we breach that NLSL – then flip the sucker for a possible retest of 146.

Similar idea on the 10-year by the way although in this case the hourly setup is less defined.

EUR/JPY sitting on the 25-hour SMA – nice long setup. HOWEVER there’s a daily NLBL giving it a bit of a hard time. I do want to be long here, especially if we clear that NLBL. A failure of the 25-hour may only lead us to the 100-hour and we may still have time for another whack at that daily NLBL.

EUR/USD – the 25-hour is holding thus far but the current hourly gyrations look precarious. Failure is a possibility here and it would actually be my favorite trade. I’m short with a stop above the 100-hour SMA now.

Cheers,