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Green Monday
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Green Monday

by The MoleJuly 9, 2018

One of the more rewarding aspects of trading for a living is to wake up on a Monday morning and upon checking your account finding the majority of your positions squarely in the green. Not surprisingly this seems to happen primarily with campaigns that emotionally were very hard to take and thus had left the bus empty upon departure.

And of course I am talking about our E-Mini campaign which after overnight continuation higher is now approaching the 2R mark. I’ve moved my stop below the recent spike low near ES 2755 and judging by the current velocity we are now on track for a push toward 2800.

But how precarious things looked just a week ago with bears once again salivating at the specter of a massive sell off. Which at that point still had moderate odds of succeeding. And let’s not forget that I had previously tested my luck two times on a lottery long, only to get stopped out at break even the first time and then a little below break even the second. So hell yeah – I earned my seat on this bus and I sincerely hope so did you.

My crude campaign is still in the running but has continued to gyrate below my entry range. The recent spike lower fortunately didn’t trigger my stop and has established more downside context. That said, a push below it will probably trigger a concerted sell off that could drop crude toward 70.5.

EUR/USD is another campaign that I really had a hard time taking, mainly because I had to turn off the ‘reasoning’ parts of my brain. Given what’s going on politically all across Europe and in particular the train wreck that is the European Union, there is simply no excuse for the EUR to be leading the USD.

But as always none of these macro economic concerns matter when it comes to hands on trading, and the chart last week strongly suggested that a push higher was forthcoming. I’ve now moved my stop to break/even and will trail it higher into 1.18 and most likely beyond. Sucks for my exchange rate but this campaign somewhat mitigates the hassle.

Of course when I took out the EUR long I somewhat hedged it with the USD/CAD which at that time also looked like a break out candidate. Unfortunately that one proceeds straight toward my ISL and that’s that.

But we need to talk about gold, so please meet me below the fold:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Guten Morgen!

  • HD

    Green morning indeed. ZW -1.5%, SI +1%+ SPX into 2775/80 R

  • HD

    Monday: consumer credit at 3pm. Wednesday: the PPI and wholesale inventories. Thursday: the CPI, weekly jobless claims, and the budget deficit. Friday: export/import prices and consumer sentiment.

  • HD

    SPX TL’s in 2018 working quiet well. Worth having on the chart IMO https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ab90a3f6135dc22f22d4f087f9daa9e97a5cdc93c44b6557a2c26c024e5be293.png

  • HD

    I must be the only one that’s had 5 cups of coffee. 1 more and I’ll shut up. 2780 pivot. Big time R IMNSHmf’rO

  • BKXtoZERO

    I held 1R TVIX from 46.4. so my first hit in a while, holding for the moment…. I haven’t held in a while and now I remember why. I am tempted to add to it but I don’t want to get into that game again. If they can break 2780 then I will eat it.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Good morning Mole, Is your girl short the VIX?

  • BKXtoZERO

    The head/shoulders neckline break on TVIX I posted on Friday looks to be playing out. On VIX itself, target is 13. Dumped TVIX 42. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/256d13946e40bd8c96838945d127fef501d5d7ae8ad4a76d6b3320ecdc4fa726.jpg

  • BKXtoZERO

    L TVIX 40.88 for an intraday poke

  • Mark Shinnick

    a reasonable shot.

  • Darkthirty
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Just like HD states below …. Going to watch trend lines. 2800 important i.e. an upper trend line ; resistance and upper Keltner Channel JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fbe89b2d4a3b32127274d0e30656a56220b5070233a59660f06afbd34c503560.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Have a nice family vacation. Drive safely
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX There is one more trend line 2875 very important too. This bullish move aligns with the bullish period until July 17 JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9e4daac4dc44663c0c92cfe9406f61c1617516803b0e7e1425774b353d88783c.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    Where did he go? Somewhere cooler than Arizona I bet…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK GG and his family went to Texas…… He is following the sun !
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    To each his own I guessum

  • randomuser6789

    Sell in May and go away. Everyone went away.

  • Darkthirty

    Put up a chart with the 6/18 dow gap……….

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It’s vacation season. I hate it but whatcha gonna do…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Good for him – he needs a bit of time off.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yes, VIXEN did this morning.

  • HD

    Spooky quiet. Thin to win, easy to rally them w little participation.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • randomuser6789

    Easy to beat them down and find stops too.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I knew it…. Nice! A female machine…. My imagination wanders at the possibilities!

  • randomuser6789

    Dude. That is creepy.

  • HD

    GM Mole, all. /ZW nice hit from TL, back to HWB 🙂 Sunday’s chart https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f087f033800a0e8dff26c03ee9a4f11c60c4e8e08a8d8832376c1b2514eee081.png

  • HD

    FOMO in equities apparently at an all time low.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…swingin’ with this stuff is a place of the bizarre.

  • Mark Shinnick

    I wish for some beta exposure to this Mole.

  • BKXtoZERO

    L NUGT 25.04, hoping low in gold is the low…. stop /GC 1247

  • Mark Shinnick

    We’re still locked into indecision patterns, but above 24.9 I suppose there is hope.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Mole, regarding Vixen…. it only enters when there is a discrepancy between VIX and one of it’s ENTs like TVIX right? It isn’t looking at technicals just a discrepancy right? What if there is no discrepancy and they are in step in one direction? no entry?

  • BKXtoZERO

    I have been in and out a bunch but I am always game to try

  • Mark Shinnick
  • BKXtoZERO
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys since almost everyone is MIA I’m taking care some security related stuff today. So I won’t be chiming in much.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/51d77b48a610cff1eae2558e181f558c870e392db064999c97f716fab21df0f3.png

    The Zero is looking mixed due to a lack of participation – when in doubt follow the trend.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    In a nutshell: We have produced an ML model which defines a baseline of what the VXX (or other ETPs like the UVXY, TVIX, and SVXY) should be doing based on the two VX futures contracts it follows (i.e. the 1st and 2nd front months). When we see divergences beyond a certain threshold we go short the VXX, UVXY, or TVIX, and/or long the SVXY.

    A shitload of work has gone into this and you won’t be able to reverse engineer it – very complex system.

  • HD

    I think virtually everything online is doing the same thing in one form or another.
    Monetizing their base. Milking them for all they can.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Huh ! No one mentioned the inverted head and shoulder pattern SPX on the intraday charts. Now approaching it’s target.
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys IMO keep a close vigilance on BAC and the Banks $BKX BAC possible failure at it’s 55 ema and upper channel trend line with RSI at 50. Watch for a bearish close below it’s 21 ema JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/70a2629856da86529561eee8ac004aaaf68542d11158a380baf817b0d0dbda7f.png

  • Darkthirty

    The few active traders that I know walked away from this shitshow. Streadfy ramp-with no TA participation. When is it gonna tank? when is it gonna rip? No clue……………no trade.

  • Darkthirty

    You didn’t score a stepford wife?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX showed this chart yesterday. SPX now at target for the inverted H & S pattern going up into price resistance and an upper trend line resistance in addition to upper Keltner Channel. Watching closely at this level Guys JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fefcc8833c300901adcc4ca004e09d004c5e702b5c40c91310d13cdc292b108b.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    UAA May buy a small long position …. UAA at support and it’s 34 ema oversold. Must have https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/224562adb5b0983beac4fde3f425fdae353e4400e5857bcffd87ed630119f376.png a bullish close above ir’s 5 ema at 22.33 JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    A fence post turtle candle? Everyone is pretty bullish.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Unbelievable … Pattern recognition … Tomorrow they must gap SPX above 2800. The only way to keep it alive ! TooMuch !
    JULIE

  • HD

    FWIW the July TL just got sliced. Needs under 2780 to confirm some wave wanky stuff.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi HD SPX RSI now at 70 and 5,1 Stochs short term overbought . MACD 3.9,16 at a level where previous pullbacks have occurred. Gonna be interesting JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c856c571a51b75b2372e3bc48969f607c8371cd301ab741f3c1f94b7e35da6fe.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD How hot is it where you live in AZ ? … Nice in MT
    JULIE

  • HD

    85 ish. We r in the monsoons -it’s either beautiful or crazy hot and humid.

  • HD

    Last week up north it was really nice. Had access to https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e9a9f06cd8898a750f9631970a550055f935ffddc1418966397a4960889a5769.jpg some private golf and the locals made for some interesting hazards

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD One of the worst snowstorms we have ever been in was AZ. Flagstaff AZ Unreal HD They closed a road and saw our MT license plate on our 4 x 4 truck and said we could go. We were the only ones that they were going to let thru. We spent the night though. Very beautiful region in AZ
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    The Southern Rockies AZ and NM are beautiful HD We always liked it !
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    VIXEN got stopped out today – quite an IV spike!!

  • HD

    Just avoid PHX ha. I’m actually trying to get hooked up at a golf course in Sedona. All these private courses in AZ are connected. I’ve never been to that part of AZ.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I remember Sedona from way back in the mid 1990s – very beautiful.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    USO A possible short with a bearish close below it’s 5 ema at 14.95. Overbought with MACD 3.9,16 rolling over. Confirmation will be a RSI swing failure JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3ec7d456dea418769abf4092ccef05972c52c412c8169d586ef075821eef129c.png

  • HD

    SPX 2800, looking left. Defines the entire year. Best believe some hedges going on.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I can’t really blame them. 2018 as a whole has been a fucking trading nightmare thus far.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    CHIEF You could be in Oakridge OR at the lake canoeing in the post picture I showed previously in the Oregon Cascade Mtns. Temp a nice 75 degrees. The American West awaits your arrival as we all do Chief !
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    She’s beating me…..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GILD Looking for a pullback to 72 – 73 support matching the daily 21 ema for a long May short it back JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c9e3c21b0ff4973da561d0b1c9627a5d5e0631dd08434460a573c953a387eaca.png

  • Darkthirty

    Nothing wrong with this “market”………….https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LbhYqV17CoQ

  • BKXtoZERO

    Ruh Ro…. Rook rafter rours reorge…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Me too, did it on the numbers at the airport at midnight, pretty nice.

  • HD

    ES getting crushed! Is there news?
    Always watch the 2-4 TL of an impulse.

  • Ronebadger

    (Wave 4) 😉

  • Mark Shinnick

    Just at local support….seems normal enough trap spring for the longs.

  • HD

    -30 normal? Not for this wave. Jmho.

  • BKXtoZERO

    what is a “wave”? No Wanking Boyz………..

  • HD

    why? A wave is just what others call a trend. What’s a trend?
    Now a count is something different. Judge for yourself if it adds a layer of probability.
    June 25, suggest the low is close. 2700 going once… yes I was early
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ba05113ae0a6913819bebcedc12ce78d0be99c8aee43faaa52dbcb9c60aa2ffc.png
    Above 2742 quantifies
    Above 2780 probability goes to impulse 2-4 TL defines
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9849ce0c6931182886616ecc1b34598f31ebf77d2a482686787a9242d071bf6e.png
    Wave 5 symmetry w wave 1 2793, 2-4 “July TL breaks”
    Under 2780 quantifies.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/099c825da85406ef7133a9744532b0fb67f288b9d6ae69931ce842eb1c3908c1.png
    All Real time EW. Just 1 layer of probability. So we draw new fibs and trade with the new “trend”, new “wave”. B down until wrong.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I am just kidding… actually I greatly appreciate your view and charts.

  • Darkthirty

    If you’re a “NO Wanking” purist, you can’t use Fibonacci numbers either…..

  • BKXtoZERO

    I went through the Scott and Mole mind meld retraining and they did a good job on me. I haven’t posted an EW label in a long time. I am like you guys, I see it and I use it for structure, I just don’t count and don’t have a grand plan based on it. I think You and HD are pretty darned good and I like the way you guys use it.

  • Darkthirty

    It was golden until the algos took over. Based on human emotion …. humans aren’t running the market anymore