Happy Turkey Slaughter!

I take it by now most of you guys are already heading to to your respective Thanksgiving destinations. Fortunately the Mole will be spared this particular holiday extravaganza as it’s not celebrated over here in Europe (don’t worry, we have a ton of our own). Honestly I never really cared much for Thanksgiving during my time in the States. Obviously it’s the second biggest U.S. holiday season after Christmas and people tend to plan their time off around both, courtesy of stingy employers offering only minimal vacation time.

I remember the very first time I signed an employment contract after I had just received my green card. I couldn’t fathom that I only got 14 days off per year. And that was during the dotcom bubble – I was told that it was rather generous compared with some folks working in blue collar professions. Not that I really take long vacations European style but when I’d like to have them when I need them. Of course once I started to trade for a living it afforded me to travel outside of popular holiday periods. So I tend to take time off in fall or in spring instead of the summer vacation season or in December. I’ve always been a person who loves to go against the grain, which makes me a horrible employee, but I always enjoyed working on my own terms. Which apparently seems to be the way of the future. Less security but if you’re flexible and enjoy controlling your own life then the sky is the limit.

Anyway, although I live in Europe my vacation and holiday schedule is still very much tied to the States, courtesy of my responsibilities to my readers and of course my intrepid subscribers. So virtually I’m still living my life over there which is kind of interesting. Much of my day revolves around my work, which includes trading, blogging, conversing in English, all based on roughly an Eastern time zone. However when I set foot outside I’m suddenly in Spain and I have to completely switch my brain over, in terms of language of course but also culturally. This can actually be quite difficult at times but given the cultural chameleon I have become over the years I’m quite used to it now.

Alright – let’s talk markets for a moment. As you can see participation has now come to a standstill and we all have better things to do then to watch pre-holiday tape.

What is interesting however – or will become so next week – is that the VIX is now dropping below 12 again. That doesn’t mean we’re going to see a jump higher but if you look at the Bollinger (in red) it’s clear that we’re starting to compress quite a bit. This situation may go on for a while – perhaps all through the holidays and into the EOY. However, sooner or later there is always a price to be paid and we are going to run out of buyers at some point. I won’t hazard to guess when that happens but we are clearly late in the current advance. I know that I suggested the possibility of a correction weeks ago – but at the same time I also held my long positions, knowing that calling tops during rocket periods would be rather unwise.

I’m not seeing any signs of trouble on the VXV:VIX ratio but the VIX:VXO is starting to drop a bit and we’re now developing quite a divergence. It could be pricing irregularities due to the holidays so we’ll have to revisit this situation on Monday or Tuesday. But if it persists then we need start paying attention. For now however there is little cause for concern.

Alright, this will be my last post for this week and I’ll resume my usual schedule on Monday. The Zero is going to be running on Friday but I won’t be here posting. Thor and CrazyIvan will continue as usual of course as futures and forex exchanges do not observe Thanksgiving.  However until Sunday night I won’t be sending any new Thor setups – CrazyIvan however may take entries. If anything is unclear or you have problems feel free to email me but please allow 24 hours as I won’t be checking emails around the clock.

Please travel safely now! My revenue milestones don’t permit reader attrition due to traffic accidents 😉

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Cheers,