Intra-Day Update: Confusius

UPDATE 10:20am EST: First up – if you haven’t done so, read the weekend update – I put a lot of work and time into that one. Secondly, I didn’t sell into the open and was actually encouraged to see 951 hold despite its low probability rating over at retracementlevels.com. Yen is a bit overshot right now – guess currency traders don’t give a hoot about the Yuan and the supposed relaunch of the Yen carry trade. What keeps me from cutting and running right now however is this:

We are approaching overbought levels on a short term basis at least and I think I’ll hold and see if we get a nice swing down. As I’m typing this the Yen is getting it up the rear again – expect some choppiness in the next hour or so. For the record – I still don’t trust this market further than I can throw it. My line in the sand is 952 – we push beyond that and I will dump my remaining puts.

UPDATE 11:03am EST: Yen is shooting up right now but will hit a pivot around 1.0185. TNX is dropping as well – so far so good for the bears. I still don’t trust this market though. Maybe I’m jaded after Friday’s mess.

UPDATE 11:45am EST: I just took profits as the Yen is approaching that pivot again but looks generally overbought at this point. IF it breaches it with confidence I might jump back into some puts again, but I need to see some clear signals here.

UPDATE 12:37am EST: CRUDE ALERT – it just dropped below 60.

UPDATE 12:45am EST: Yen just punched through R1 pivot at 1.023 – can’t believe it. TNX still hovering around lows. Crude fighting for its life around 60. I just picked up some FSLR and GOOG puts but am keeping both on a hare trigger.

UPDATE 1:53pm EST: You guys all know I’m ranking pretty high on the evil meter, but the shit the Treasury is pulling is starting to get out of hand. As Barry put it so aptly: Opportunism knows no sense of decency. Is any of our elected ‘leaders’ willing to put an end to the continued illegal actions of those banksters? It seems every day they find yet another way to put their greedy paws on more of our hard earned tax money. You guys have no idea how tough it is for me to sign those tax return checks – for I know where they wind up. Not in the hands of teachers educating our children and construction workers fixing our infrastructure – no, it goes all to pirates and gnomes who take private helicopters to work every day. DISGUSTING!

Karl Denninger’s take on this scam.

UPDATE 2:31pm EST: FYI – market is testing the S1 pivot on the ES which is 917.5. If that one falls we drop like a rock.

UPDATE 2:44pm EST: Yen looks ready to push up but the ES pivot is holding. I just don’t trust this market right now – will step aside for today.

UPDATE 3:32pm EST: I think here comes the end-of-day-market-maker-short-squeeze.