Intra-Day Update: Line In The Sand

UPDATE 10:11am EST: We are now at an important line in the sand.

There’s the lower diagonal support line plus we are right at the 38.2 Fibonacci line. If we drop much further the entire wave count goes out of the window. The fact that the 878 RL has only a 26% probability is not exactly encouraging. Frankly, this would suck big time as my entire evil plan goes out of the window – backing up the truck at 920 or 940 would be so much fun…

UPDATE 11:21am EST: Moony just alerted us to the CPC this morning – check it out:

Now, I just talked about the CPC yesterday – strange coincidence. But to see it sink that far on dropping averages is kind of strange. I have to say this is quite bearish – maybe this is more than just a bear trap. I would still like to see more momentum developing though.

FYI – last time it was that low as in mid May – which was the very top of intermediate wave (2).

UPDATE 1:27pm EST: So far we’ve been holding that RL but the tape remains indecisive, as expected. Despite the bearish CPC omen I have hopes that we crawl a bit higher here:

Stochastics look they’re ready to turn soon – maybe today, maybe after Christmas. Either way I’m very hesitant to jump into puts right here.

UPDATE 1:44pm EST: And now for something completely different:

It’s freaking raining over here in L.A. – I need some sunshine mood. Sorry y’all for ruining your X-Mas spirit – mwwuuhaaahaaahaaaaaa!!

UPDATE 2:12pm EST: Yen just went ape-crazy – not good for the bullish case.

UPDATE 3:30pm EST: I’m actually quite pleased with the Zero’s performance today. No, we didn’t get a short VTA early in the day because the signal was flat and it was clear to me that there simply was a lack of buyers. What seemed suspicious was the drop through the 2nd and even the 3rd RL on a teeny-weeny signal. No way was I going to short into that – and that sentiment was rewarded at the very end when the few remaining institutional traders finally showed their hand. Hey, quite a nice bear trap you guys set up there – too bad I didn’t fall for it.

See folks – that’s what happens with trend indicators – they sometimes keep you out of ‘lucky money’ in thin holiday tape like this. But if they are any good they also keep you out of harms way – and that, my dear rats, it did very well today. That 15 point slingshot at the end would have been murderous to any puts bought around 860 (past the pivot) – I’m sure the MMs had a field day at the end.

UPDATE 6:20pm EST: If this doesn’t piss you off then check your pulse.