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Let ‘Er Run

Let ‘Er Run

by The MoleAugust 21, 2014

I’ll be quick today as there isn’t much to be said until the boyz at Jackson Hole are done laughing in their gold plated seats. Just about now they should be getting frisky and inaugurate the entertaining part of the conference by throwing darts at an IMAX size map of the world. As good ole’ George once said – it’s a big club and you ain’t in it. Console yourself by the fact that at least you’re here, which means you saw the light and learned how to focus on the few parameters you have control over. The rest is just noise – it’s entertaining here and there but mostly it’s just noise. Focus on yourself and your loved ones and you’re going to be fine.

Anyway, I do not recommend taking on any positions at the moment, the exception being your automated systems and even there I would suggest reduced position sizing.


On the equities side it’s turned into a squeeze from hell, but as you can see the candle ranges are getting shorter and that means we’ll most likely are going to see either a fast blow off top or a correction by the EOW. As I’m managing this campaign Heisenberg style I’m now trailing it (manually) at 25% of 5R. Which means that spot below the daily NLSL is perfect for riding out any shallow reversals. If we get more than that it’ll probably dip much deeper, perhaps up to 50%. It’s been a brilliant campaign so far and at this point we just watch and let it play out.



Ditto on the Dollar side – it spiked to 6R today and I intend to hold this one as long as possible. Remember, let those winners run. Sorry the chart is wrong – I was blinded by all that green apparently. It should say 6R but my stop is in the right place, trailing at 1.5R (~25% Maximum Favorable Excursion). I never thought this one would run this far but I’m not one to look a gift horse in the mouth – some of those mares have a bad temper!

So, no setups until Monday – I’m actually keeping myself busy with some pretty advanced quant project. Nothing like giving that ole’ noggin’ a little kick every once in a while. BTW, how’s everyone enjoying DarthMole?

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • BobbyLow

    Advanced Quant?

    Now that’s a way to relax. 🙂

  • Gold_Gerb

    6R, HOly Maria, that’s like what? $500?

    It’s been a brilliant campaign so far

    I would like to see the battle log weeks from now, you know – to encourage the troops.


  • Billabong

    Thanks for the Yellen info.

  • BobbyLow

    Keep an eye on /CL. IMO if it holds in here and begins to move up, it might be a long by early next week. If it triggers, I’ll use UCO.

  • Billabong

    It was either closeout my positions tomorrow or today. I elected to do it today in lieu of waiting for JH speeches driving the markets.

    Three I mentioned over the last week:
    TBT closed @ 56.79 for +0.45R

    BTU closed @ 16.51 for +0.14R
    VALE closed @ 13.92 for +0.5R

    On the 18th I closed out a long silver position for -1.17R . This was a 1 day late sell and the weekend delay was on a buy signal that became a failed buy signal. This was a judgement call and I would make the same decision again.

  • molecool

    I’m strangely wired – yeah…

  • molecool

    It’s around $75 – I went all in.

  • molecool

    Zero right now:

  • BobbyLow

    There’s nothing wrong with BE. As much as I would like to have +R’s every week, sometimes it just doesn’t work that way. 🙂

    I was kind of shocked at the price on BTU. Did it split or something? I think I traded it for the first time about 10 Years ago at around $15. Then over the years it got as high as $70. I haven’t traded it for a long time so I’ve been out of the loop.

  • Billabong

    That’s the price … as the USG has relentlessly beat on coal, BTU has dropped from the 40s over the last couple of years.

  • Scott Phillips

    I find it much harder emotionally to close out small wins than big wins. Probably a good time to give yourself a pat on the back

  • Scott Phillips

    Trailing 25% of 5R? Shouldn’t you be tightening soon? Those are some tasty winners there 🙂 Has the USD triggered the monthly upper bollinger squeeze breakout yet? (I dont get that data)

  • Billabong


  • Scott Phillips

    AUDUSD stopped me out for BE today after achieving 1.4R MFE

  • Gold_Gerb

    UCO eh?
    30.40 would be a better base to reverse, IMHO.

  • Skynard

    Definately on it’s way, taking partial prior to Yellen:)

  • BobbyLow

    Could be and I have no idea what the price of UCO will be when it’s time. My lens might be a little different then yours because on reversals, I prefer to buy a little strength on /CL (it has it prove itself a little before I get in)

    Regarding UCO, I prefer this 2X over USO by a long shot. As of this moment, the majority of UCO is primarily comprised of 1 /CL Contract (/CLX4 November). USO has a rolling balance of 4 Contracts of which their roll dates are published in advance. This allows the product to be gamed by the Boyz. I used to trade a lot of USO and IMNSHO, it is a piece of shit.

    With a few math calculations, it is easy to calculate a very close relationship between /CL and 2X UCO or its sister SCO. Over time, there is some shrinkage with UCO/SCO but the shrinkage is minimal for the few days or weeks that I would hold either one. I relate UCO/SCO ETF Stock with Call and Put Options that have no expiration date, have Delta and Gamma working in my favor, has no Vega to work against me, and has minimal Theta Burn.

    OTOH, the very best way to trade oil is through the actual future contracts /CL or /QM and I expect to be trading either one of these at some point in the future.

  • molecool

    Sorry for the late response – I was buried in polynomials and mean square errors – LOL

    I have a hard time enclosing the pic here – disqus acting up.

  • molecool


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