Long Term Update

It’s been a while and today seems like a good day to catch up with our long term charts. In general it seems like we have touched major lows in various key markets – most importantly on the Euro and crude front. The former much to my chagrin of course – how much I have enjoyed the favorable exchange rate and I’m not looking forward to seeing that change. Alright, let’s cover some major symbols, starting with equities of course:

The long term panels on the S&P futures look in pretty good shape at this point, however it seems that we remain pinned below our weekly NLBL at ES 2088.75. It would be preferable to overcome this one by tomorrow as it would issue a weekly buy, thus almost guaranteeing new highs and a final departure from a two month trading range spanning over 100 handles.

The SPX point and figure however shows a lot of positive evidence – in particular I like that support cluster near 1990 which in the future should provide some very solid support during any attempts to drag equities lower. On the long term chart we already have strong context courtesy of the 25-week SMA which has been attacked several times in the past months but managed to remain intact. However I must point out that this is the first horizontal defense line in a long time – which means the trend is weakening and most likely in its late stages.

In summary the bulls remain large and in charge here and if you’re holding long term then there is no reason to second guess the advance, despite all the bearish musings across the financial media and blogosphere. Yes, the bulls were in big trouble a few weeks ago but managed to throw a last minute Hail Mary. So far it’s working and until we see signs of exhaustion again the bear goes back into hibernation. He had his chance and he blew it.

Gold looked like it was ready for take off and then suddenly deflated like a French soufflé. Quite frankly the gold bugs are in big trouble here and if we breach through that 100-week SMA and below the NLSL at 1130 there’s no telling how low it’ll go.

The P&F totally agrees it seems as the bullish PO is still a possibility but signals a high pole reversal warning which is about to turn into a sell signal. The gold bugs are on notice here and perhaps in a few days we’ll have a chance to take out a few lottery tickets to the long side. As I said – below 1130 we may just fall off the plate. Until that happens the long side is worth a shot as I expect 1130 to be defended fiercely.

More LT musings below the fold – please join me in the lair:

It's not too late - learn how to consistently trade without worrying about the news, the clickbait, the daily drama and misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don't waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,