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Looking Ugly
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Looking Ugly

by The MoleAugust 5, 2019

It’s starting to look pretty ugly out there. If you were hoping for a bit of upside relief this morning you will unfortunately be disappointed. The E-Mini futures have been continuing lower overnight as equities seem to be getting ready to observe the most bearish quarter of the year. And I fear this one is going to leave a mark.

What’s more worrying is that we are getting off to an early start this year as late August and early September have the potential to drag equities quite a bit lower.

As you can see August as well as September have worked hard to earn their bearish reputation.

The 2900 mark on the E-Mini was breached overnight and unless we see a snapback in the first two hours I fear that a slide lower could be triggered.

The volume profile panel describes it best. We have sufficient context below 2900 for a snapback to occur, but the price action supports continuation lower. There was an opening gap on Thursday morning and a much larger one this morning.

Formations like these usually don’t just turn on a dime and continue higher. At minimum we are looking at a bit of whipsaw over the coming days.

More market perspectives below the fold for my intrepid subs:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Miguel Sanchez
  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • bankwalker

    are we witnessing a point of recognition in the making?

  • evilasevildoes

    3rd is usually a peirce

  • HD

    2-4 TL broke, previous 4th traded, rallied back to TL and tanked HWB 2875.
    Best practice for the HDwave theory https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cce69a29f03b2f5911523d392de7a869d6e5c12e246522abdccd148657a30c8c.png

  • HD

    good eyes. This market has turned on a dime every time we think it woke up to the realities.

  • HD

    $SPX 56 days to $0000.00 at this pace

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    Because straight lines ruler…

  • ridingwaves

    well, you won’t need money or investments if that was too happen….

  • Darkthirty

    Gotta have 12 inches to be a ruler

  • ridingwaves

    GC hitting monthly resistance here, RSI at 70 same chart..

  • HD

    VIX was 13 Aug 1, SPX down 5% now VIX 22. Never the other way around.

  • HD

    30 handle gap, 60 handle hit is another reminder to not follow news.

  • Ronebadger

    TICK negative all morning since the open…Trend Day…more fireworks?

  • ridingwaves

    ISM came in weakest in 3 yrs….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Never underestimate the power of greed.
    and if that doesn’t work, the power of stupidity!!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    AAPL,
    bustin’ a move.

    https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=AAPL

  • HD

    IMO everything above 2850 was highly manufactured. POR

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    what’s the matter? “chicken?”
    TSN,
    https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=TSN

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I was going to post a Hottie with a Body, but ya beat me to it.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    So.
    is wave 2-4 broken?
    I’m thinking this is wave A down?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    FSLR,
    run for the hills!

    https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=FSLR

  • Mark Shinnick

    We need the 3pers…in any event,

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    long beans, bullets, bullion, and bitchez!
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    another hour till Europe closes.

    https://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/americas/

  • Ronebadger

    He’s got 5 waves up and the LKGB…a pattern from Heaven

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    Because chicken mcnuggets are comfort food in sharp corrections.

  • Ronebadger

    DAX!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m thinking get above vwap today, close the gap, and let’s see what happens.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    snap back rally imminent – maybe ! 🙂

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    It’s all about those spicy McNuggets just out!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    how’s that VIX signal doing?
    😉

  • HD

    28(55) is a fibonacci pivot

  • HD

    WHAT A HIT!

  • HD

    I’m a buyer into (55)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • sutluc

    I trade etf’s derived from VIX futures. Most of the time I am short vol.

    A warning sign I usually get is when the vol etf peaks but S&P keeps rising. Not necessarily a sure thing but a definite warning sign. This time around SVXY peaked July 24, market peaked on the 26th, I folded up my position on the 30th.

    I expect something similar could be observed on the VIX itself but I have never really checked.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I told BK natty was tough. check out today’s hourly.
    a Crazy Ivan.

    https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=NG&p=h1

  • HD

    Hi sutluc. Good trade! I think you have a better model than most. At least the Etf’s have buyers and sellers. I see TA on the VIX, all the time, which does not. It’s nothing but a formula.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • HD

    I only have 3, wanted a full lot. looks primed already. VWAP is like 20 handle up

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    S&P down 61 pts.
    Epic.
    https://i.imgur.com/RjeOl29.gif

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    The rails GG esp UNP Gotta believe Ka Ching !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I believe.
    FDX, bashed -4%

    doing worse than UPS.

  • Ronebadger

    Probably, “Step One” today….again…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG I have had only one bad trade losing 20 cents CALA 4.09 was mt stop I had a tight stop knowing rally near completion
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Bwah….. Straight up or straight down

  • Darkthirty

    Kardashian ass expansion?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    isn’t it in the astrology calendar?
    😉
    Kardashian retrograde..

  • Darkthirty

    Even a cougar finds a nut ……

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m not counting.

    all kinds of traders.
    some make 9 losses, and the 1 pays for it all – and then some.
    some make 9 wins, and lose it all on the 1.

    -GG

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    LOL.
    that’s dark.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    fools rush in. The Yuan has broken, or something like that. Begun the currency wars has. Now you yourself have said commods don’t do well in slumps.
    You’ve moved to safety. so I’m detecting some dissonance.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Commodities $COTTON and Natty Gas are plays Just time it
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of more deserving corn-holes

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Natty Gas Don’t ever go against the Commercials the smart money
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/da74dd5b04be0ac4801f8ecec2d0d950a3c83a1d6840cf68f21be8b002970b7c.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    ES outside of lower wedge trendline, they need a quick snap back or done done done done…. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bacd1f53756f58e898ae30b48277f18de7f00efc89cb23007dcc680461887af7.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    “this is where I will draw my line”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n75NvVHQV4M

  • BKXtoZERO

    Short bonds 7-10 year 3X via TYO at 10.87

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    10 year, well – I wanted lower – i GOT lower. LOL.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TNX&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&id=p39545968183

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I hear ya BK Myself I would not jump the gun as I would wait for a positive close back inside the lower red dotted trend line to be safe. No need to rush this Jasper https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c58c5b1c443ad7c6b72e81d371aae11982c67e48242fffeeeffb436c210b23b4.png
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Out of DRV +1$, dissappointed in this one… IYR bouncing

  • BKXtoZERO

    well it is a shot at reversal here and now.

  • BKXtoZERO

    There we go Julie! I had to up-vote this one myself! +1 !!!

  • BKXtoZERO

    if this second low holds, possible rally up to lower trendline 2887

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Anyone hit the miners GDX The bounce off the 34 ema and support short term oversold ?
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/624afcb291c4b85248c53d288d0e0af0b8a0bab5469d822f4cb7671b730a7a78.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    nope. copper went bananas last week.
    and with the BPGDM up around 80, well – oh well.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COPPER&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p02859415218

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG I was cautious too with $BPGDM at 80
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I caught a good piece of it. and after holding $24 or such, it’s nice to be free for a while.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EXAS is playing out as planned Plan the trade and trade the plan
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e7c4ba9060c87583421bd8eba06377045bbc246c936e09b01ea6eb418051e3e7.png

  • Darkthirty

    Even a golden Gerbil..….

  • BobbyLow

    Captain Obvious might say that today’s “damage to the indices looks like more than a flesh wound”. BFTFDIK?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPY VWAP 286.79 ? Anyone have different ?
    JULIE

  • evilasevildoes

    287

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s everyone holding up?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thanks EV
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Doing great Chief All systems go
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Having fun Sir!

  • BobbyLow

    This is not only ugly but Fugly as well! 🙂

  • BKXtoZERO

    Out of that bond short idea for 9 cent ding, no BFD, looks like 2800

  • HD

    Was there news?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Seems sort of baked-in the past 3 weeks.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    A dove in the tree. sheltered. watching.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    China, blah blah blah.

  • HD

    Toledo… that’s a mover. Diminished capacity imo.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    2850 trades. Let’s go!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    did you say capacity? I am *so* triggered.

  • BobbyLow

    LOL

    BTW, we’re through 55 and 48 next?

  • mSquare

    Not the time to short the Bonds – yet!

    This is the time to sell your safe/slow Bond ETFs, Munis, preferred shares and such – most of which are making new highs.

    Unfortunately, once you take sell these and take nice profits that you did not quite expect, do not know when to buy them back! Most of those who buy these are for the yield or counterbalance other holdigns such as stocks)

  • Darkthirty

    Nother 28 pts ES is lockout, I think

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    yeah 48. but you’re the day trader. you should be telling ME.
    LOL.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&id=p45686105486

  • Mark Shinnick

    A st objective for this move got hit, or is nearly hit, so watch out.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys this is what I have as it’s gone below 2861 Watch 2807 – 2814 Below these 2762 – 2766
    JULIE

  • HD

    Curbs at 7,13,20% still or did they change it?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Oh wait SPX now at 61.8% retracement approx 2848
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    don’t listen to the Gerb {sigh}

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Is it me or does he say “teh Nasdaq is up 3.5 %”?? If he does it just shows the mentality of the reporters on CNBC
    https://iberianviews.blogspot.com/2019/08/how-cnbc-are-permanent-bulls.html
    Sorry for the link can’t figure out how to add video 🙁

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I saw your post below GG
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    sure!
    it wasn’t Left. he he he.

  • Darkthirty

    There appears to be a gap at 24900 on DOW…

  • HD

    Aka he’s dumb AF!!!

  • Darkthirty

    That’s what CME had, I ballparked the lock limit #. I love banging the rip your face off rally on re-open!

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    “we’re just one tweet away form a rally” CNBC
    sorry like watching when the markets fall of the plate – 700 points ain’t nothing percentage wise

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    D30 Talk about an impulse structure 5 waves down SPX
    JULIE

  • pepe

    Long SSO options. 2848 is a good place for a rebound.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s everyone holding up? This is an organized sell off and I strongly advice against stepping underneath a falling sword.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/18b0cdbaa3357b82dcdad05f5f5c20b1bd77939f1a1bedfcdd5f4e0f3ff5d3ce.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    thanks Mole.
    my Hubris sometimes wants to take over, like a mongoose & a cobra.
    Cobra’s still kill. plan the trade, trade the plan.
    -GG

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    700 pts isn’t what it use to be.
    ;-(

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Be careful guys SPX bounce at 2846 no volume coming in SPY
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Is guessing part of your strategy?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Wait for a breach for 2856.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yeah right – a MACD is going to help you in this market. It’s like I never posted here.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    how ya’feeling? give us rats an update CAPTAIN!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Darkthirty

    Target RSI (5) at 5-7 on $INDU 60 minute

  • HD

    GG! Kudos on the 2848. Nice!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi HD Volume non confirming Must get above trend line and VWAP per post and chart below in reply to Chief. Not so fast IMO
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    seeing some positive divergence

  • ridingwaves

    I’m traveling all week, Mole handed me his traveling stuffed bear last week….be cautious…

  • pepe

    Not at all, Sir. Once I got out of my VIX longs last week (a tad too early it seems) I’ve been looking for a small reentry. But I’m only a beginner, and a rusty such, and am trying to learn as much as I can. Right now I’m focused on sound money management to not giv away the profits I made last week. This is my third trade in years and if this doesn’t work I need to step back and reassess. In the end of the day, I just got to trade my own plan. Feedback is always welcome! 🙂

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    D30 I have pos divergences on 10 min but not the important 30 and 60 min
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    seeing it on 5 and 10, by the time it’s on the 60 i’m out and gone

  • Darkthirty

    Got a nice stack since sunday, dwanna give it back…

  • HD

    Yep. Had the short from 2929 and now 2 stops long side.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    UNG Guys there is a weekly pos divergence Bollinger Band Will post when I pull the trigger
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a89a5e783c84e1009ccf0c1c03cf86a4aa61cdcd45b43ac0c715040eb3ae3c31.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    ok…so now a retesting of this objective…stay puckered.

  • mSquare

    I think the bigger and more important price action should be ^TNX down huge, down to 1.72-ish to over 7%! Do not recall when it was down so big and so quick…

    In comparison, $SPX down 3% is not as significant

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi M Square I posted last night Bonds to watch they are the dark horse. Good job watching TNX and Bonds
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Glad I dumped initial entry last Friday on that bump. It is a little below my second entry that I am holding….buying more again on any move sub 2 NG

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Personally BK I am playing it on the daily with a bullish reversal and add above the 5 ema. Not jumping the gun
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    ….wisdom to know what we can’t change…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Again in post below SPX watching 2807 – 2814 …. 2762 – 2766
    JULIE

  • pepe

    Out. Clearly wrong on the market. Back to school. 😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    Not going to be a popular opinion but when we have strong momentum like this support and resistance lines of any kind don’t mean squat.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Staircase up and elevator down
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I tend to agree. unless someone pulls a monthly stat. big boyz are in play.

  • BobbyLow

    Yep and the days not over yet but a 3% Drop in one day is big no matter what the starting numbers are.

  • HD

    I got run over at both S levels I had. Next is right here 2834 I’m a buyer again.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    “love in an elevator…” Aerosmith

  • HD

    40 handles from VWAP?

  • Ronebadger

    5min and 15min

  • Ronebadger

    Agreed

  • BobbyLow

    I have to admit being chcken shit to get short at my normal time at 2872 because price was already down 50 Points from yesterday’s close. That woulda been another 30 or 40 points to be had. Coulda woulda shoulda with the thought that I probably still made the right non-move not chasing 50 points already down.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    2807 – 2814 is a stronger support zone HD
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Well… I got out early…. I try to get fancy but it is straight up or straight down. I have been feeling like were all being played biggly with the tweets and trade deals. Not me of course as my negativity bias kept me from believing in anything they do but I need to believe even less I suppose.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Esp when the elevator stops and lights go out YEAH !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    you were around the first time.
    Downhill is hard.

  • BobbyLow

    I hope you had some TVIX being up +$4 today. I don’t trade the VIX but wow. . .

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    it’s the darkest dark.

    coffin like I suppose.

  • BKXtoZERO

    No I wish…and I wasted BP trying a quick bond short. Arg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    It sure is GG especially when so much of the price action takes place during the middle of the night with moves like this one. I would have had to taken a flier with a wide stop and F that.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Bingo, everyone forgets the overnight wildness in 2008/09.

  • BobbyLow

    The only positive thing I have going on today is a small short in Oil and even Oil has been acting more wierd than usual over the past few days.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi BL If you go back in time and see how these sell offs end A strong trend day bullish reversal confirmed by volume. December 26 and June 1 Anyone attempting to bottom pick is wasting their time and money
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Oh I remember. I actually did well in 2008 because of my Perma Bear Status at the time. Unfortunately my PB Status continued long after 2008 and I got spanked.

  • Darkthirty

    open the doors on a Sears elevator between floors and you have a no tell motel in the mall!

  • BobbyLow

    Totally agree Julie. This is why I’m sticking with Day Trades on the S&P (When the Boyz let me in) and short term swings on Oil.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    S&P down 3.33%
    half evil.

    about an hour to go.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BL Supposedly Iran seized another tanker recently It appears day to day with oil no edge anywhere
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    I chickened-out of the tvix but held labd.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys I will say one thing then I will shut up the rest of the day. This correction is impulsive and when a tradeable bounce occurs it will be to a lower high then down again.This is going to be deeper and longer than bulls imagined
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    I try to avoid oil news especially the Middle East crap that has kept oil prices churning forever. Going by strictly price momo and short term trends, oil is a still a short by my lenses on both 90 Minute and 3 Hour Charts. Now this could all change overnight and probably will but I’ve got to stick with my stuff. 🙂

  • BobbyLow

    Well if we hit 1,000 Points down maybe that’ll be the new normal. Why not? Everything’s turned upside down anyway. Shit only 60 more points to go.

  • Mark Shinnick

    It would be about time.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes…its happened before with different relative ranges.

  • Darkthirty

    RSI 7.75

  • Ronebadger

    (Translation) We are in Wave 3…then, a face-ripping Wave 4 to a lower high, then Wave 5 to new lows.
    (Ronebadger’s add-on – There will be divergences on the 1HR chart as Wave 5 ends)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    daily? throw it in the trash.
    switch to weekly.
    😉

  • BKXtoZERO

    Only one more thing lol

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    posted a target below …

  • Mark Shinnick
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    +3
    it’s a Sloper party.

  • HD

    At 2870

  • Darkthirty

    2851 target….

  • HD

    That’s the level for our broken YTD TL too.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Is Tim on top or bottom?

  • ridingwaves

    I have bid for Labu at 36.90…..that gap is going down tomorrow, this week at latest….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    2849’ish.
    Time Check

  • Mark Shinnick

    I’ll never think of Costco Buffet quite the same way again.

  • Darkthirty

    Stocks rising on unverified tweet

  • BobbyLow

    Hit it. I didn’t take the trade but I gotta give ya an atta boy on that call.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    you can cut the tension in my office.
    everybody is angry.

  • BobbyLow

    Why 401K’s?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    that’s what I’m thinking.

  • HD

    I should have waited for an impulse comment to buy. Lol. But I agree. It doesn’t channel well and sliced support w ease. Let’s see how the rebound looks corrective or not.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You can’t just buy options after a drop like that. Vega on a bounce higher will kill you.

  • Darkthirty

    bad moon

  • Darkthirty

    Doesn’t count unless it reverses there….

  • ridingwaves

    Cycle pressure, the 10, 20 and 40 wk cycles are all pointing down….expect more tension…..this formation is not good for 401K folks…..

  • HD

    -$1300 today going in short and buying 3 times and getting 15 handles long. What a day. See how they close em.

  • BobbyLow

    HD FWIW, since 9:30 AM every 5 Minute Bar with 3 or more positive candles has been sold off and it looks like the latest attempt is deficating the bed too.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    weeks!?!
    THOSE are big big cycles.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Think Sam Kinison screaming THEY DID IT TO ME AGAIN!!!! Oh. Oh. [OHHHH

  • BobbyLow

    Looks like it did – currently at 2843

  • ridingwaves

    that’s why caution is warranted….it doesn’t happen often, last time was October 2018

  • Darkthirty

    Just look out for loose stuffing……..

  • Ronebadger
  • Darkthirty

    The AH is gonna be the tell, whether this was orchestrated or the real deal…MOC and all that rot

  • Ronebadger

    MOLE – Good title for today’s post

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Darkthirty

    Seriously, electricity likes to equalize. Nerves, thus brains, run on electrical impulses. Sun isn’t bombarding like it used to. Earths core is paying off now, earthquakes are proof. Complete different type of electrical energy……

  • ridingwaves

    I locked into the grey goose bottle or what seems to be….
    vodka and corona, that is like asking for defeat…..

  • Mark Shinnick

    Whew…a lot of influence there.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Well GG If they only knew what we know
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves
  • BKXtoZERO

    Ha! Another post !

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    at first I volunteered, they shunned me.
    I soon realized, sheep gonna be sheep.
    can’t save them.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I have a color laserjet at home. I’m seriously thinking of printing this one out.

    (though I find the 76 to be much more fitting)

  • ridingwaves

    my bad was going to post to your reply but see above…jumping on a flight to Portland in a bit…..cheers, I have a bid for LABU at 36.90

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK If you really want to know something bigly The rally from June 1st stopped monthly Bol Band Always bring up a monthly chart
    JULIE

  • HD

    I was not expecting a 100+ hit

  • BKXtoZERO

    My wife had her step father invest her money after losing 30% on TSLA….. I wonder how they did today on those positions.. .

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ..she promised

  • ridingwaves

    its just hocus pocus….don’t waste the ink….that is serious dough….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    what would a day like today, be without this clip??

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsx2vdn7gpY

  • Darkthirty

    Watch your step!

  • ridingwaves

    I’m just hoping for a hot portland lady to be in seat nearest me……lately I have been in big people purgatory…….

  • BKXtoZERO

    If there was a 3X ETF on Julie posting again I would have gone long

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK I at least waited for the close ! lol
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    Big uns are hot! and sweaty, smelly, generally have bad attitudes……

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    the ETF name COUG is available.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys The new 3X ETF COUG has a very high expense ratio lol !
    JULIE

  • HD

    The opportunity for big pay was there today. Just didn’t go my way. I blame the VIX.

  • Darkthirty

    I’m just interested in the dividends.. : P

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Thanks – it was pretty obvious where we were heading today 😉

  • Ronebadger

    THREE TIMES!?!?!? Nice….

  • BobbyLow

    The bloodletting continues. Down 37 points in the first 5 Minutes after re-opening

  • mSquare

    China labelled as currency manipulator by Treasury!

    More selloff to continue. Proof of more downside : CNBC running a ‘Markets in Turmoil’ special tonight

  • Darkthirty

    Ya, I blew it, too. Went to work on the turns and if I’d just wandered off somewhere I’d have banked a couple k more….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Of course the market is not dropping because it attained the upper weekly trend line ; Upper monthly bollinger band ; overvalued and overbought It’s dropping because of tariffs. Prior to the drop there were 4 distribution days out of 11 Also the rally from beginning of June was low volume https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6e8e471d16ce924fee978e08d3bd86a4ab63933f2d237e7553588a03de570a8d.png and indicates smart money distributing all along But it’s dropping because of tariffs Guys this market was going to drop with or without tariffs
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    High Maintenance fees

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Continuous depreciation. Kinda like TVIX.
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    The real selling started on July 31. A Black New Moon.
    you can lead a Coug to water..but you can’t make it think!™
    LOL.
    =P

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi GG About to leave the office. The depreciation in COUG is a misnomer but the maintenance fees are exorbitant.like what BK states You know champagne breakfasts and lobster lunches with breaks intra day for massages
    JULIE

  • Sp00nman

    Things have been hectic with the new child #3 lately amongst other things. Just wanted to say hope you’re doing well Mole and feeling better! Wow what a crazy market lately. I lightened up on puts today and clearly it was a little early.. I’m playing more swing positions lately, hope everyone is doing well!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    UNG Very strong resistance 19.01 A bullish close on the 30 min chart above and I am long
    JULIE

  • Sp00nman

    Almost 10:1 downvolume on the NYSE today. Looks like some people throwing in the towel today. Go from new all time highs to a 200+ handle pullback just like that..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi SP We want two 9 :1 within 5 trading days
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Cyd and I had the top nailed along with the rails
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    The Hell with these jerks Because of them bubble after bubble Audit the FED and pass the Fed Transparency Act
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f213141e6a492c9b6ac59e6b2a9a6091f395f8c616ec5500423d31f10fcf6088.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Iceland got rid of their Central Bank. If I was President the FED would be abolished
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    JULIE IN 2020 ! !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    If GS ;JPM and BAC go tits up … Julie’s National Bank Of Commerce will take over
    JULIE

  • Ronebadger

    With yesterday’s candle, who would have predicted today’s candle on the VIX https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1d8619070858a340284f6d0bbc1df8ee9bd14ba5c9eb5dcdcccd6a2dae13fecb.png

  • Ronebadger

    Anyone watching ES Futures after 4PM EDT? Down over 50 pts…am I reading that right?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi RB As soon a $VIX went above 16 and the 160 sma it opened the door for a further dump SPX In a previous thread I posted to watch 16 and the 160 sma https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2a38a2df5ce371499f2c7fa8e805db95a6de1bd31e54e01b9afb46d62261e7ce.png
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yes RB You are reading it correctly. I am still at the office
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    tell the boss to keep his filthy hands off of you.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    I don’t see why not!?
    Headquarters in JacksonHole. The sheep will go for it.
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    114 oven heat today. currently 105.
    got home and the A/C is out. blown fuse.
    thank god Home Depot had 3 spares in stock.

    Up and Running!!!
    let’s see if I can make it thru the Summer.

    If the Market can’t kill me, the Desert just might.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Tail light guarantee Your money is safe right up till I drive away lol
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    standard protocol for all women.
    =P

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Of course the GG’s have a swimming pool
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG The FED and PPT have no business in the market There is a very strong movement to audit and limit the FED It’s time GG A free market is needed
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    watch for the Hegelian dialectic.

    Problem – Reaction – Solution

    Those fuckers have a plan, and it won’t be a good one.

    1. Their solution will not solve the original problem.
    2. The problem was possibly created themselves in order to introduce their desired “solution.”
    3. The engineered process of Problem-Reaction-Solution is reducing your liberty and making you more dependent on the state.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Iceland kicked their CB to the curb GG Things are fine there.Someday … somewhere the CB’s will be backed into a corner.Watch Italy
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG In the last 1 1/2 year SPX has gone nowhere
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    oh please, Iceland is ranked 111th in GDP.
    a token gesture.

    Do you seriously think the Major Powers are going to just roll over??

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    WOMEN UNITE AGAINST THE FED ! The hand that rocks the cradle GG
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    yeah. at least the people in Zimbabwe know how to do it RIGHT!

    we could be fuking billionaires by now.
    😉

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    The “Lion” is calling and he probably wants to know What the Hell. Better be on my way home Glued to market events
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    Egos are so inflated, the best you can do is plant seeds……….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I smell a “Rat” now Futes have come back 50%
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    If you could point out “The Major Powers” they’d do all kinda tricks!

  • BobbyLow

    Well I didn’t miss all of today’s volatility. I managed to pick up +15 Points on the Long side on the night shift. I caught a fast move a little before 9 PM my time and it ran for less than 20 minutes before coming back down. It’ll be interesting to see what’s in store for tomorrow but that’s it for me tonight. 🙂

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    East Coaster. another half hour of sunlight to go!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    nailed? no. approximately estimated, yes.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Darkthirty

    Figure that one out and you can cure meth/crackheads and junkies!

  • Darkthirty

    Or is it “the finger in the dyke?”

  • Darkthirty

    That’s all ya get with daily charts…..

  • BobbyLow

    Yep it’s 10:20 PM right now and time for some mindless TV to clear my head for sleep time. Catch y’all tomorrow. Have a good night. 🙂

  • BKXtoZERO

    new one huh… I read the last one… saw him in Seattle. It was cool but I was hoping for even more direct dirt, maybe this one is better?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    How phony the Futes Big Stinko !
    JULIE

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Well that was some move overnight – mini wash out – snap back rally – now where – . DOW chart – 4 hours ..expect wild moves – looking for price rsi divergence to see if any tradeable bounce or if it goes straight up re-shorting 26200 + (may change depending on price behaviour)
    “Jack be nimble jack be quick, ”
    Tagged 78.6 %retrace of June rally (highlighted)
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c6ee25a1b2125c73ad1624a805d29372469649ec758147482483264f48e174a4.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    One of the biggest stinks I have ever seen Catracho.Time to disband the PPT and have free markets
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    5,000 skunks tonight permeated the air at the NY FED trading desk home of the PPT
    JULIE

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    yes – easier to do overnight – good for reloading !

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    And Wall St wants to know why no one trusts them Ma and Pa have been burned so many times and Wall St wants to know why they don’t invest
    JULIE

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    What time where you are?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Montana Mountain time 12.12 a.m Should have been asleep hours ago What time is it where you are ?
    JULIE

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Uckfield, East Sussex – England -7:15 am – That’s early bed for me! Normally 1 am..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Neat Catracho You have great contributions and are an excellent trader
    JULIE

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Thanks – so do you – I have my moments – always learning!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    The semis SMH could bounce tomorrow Chart posted below.
    JULIE

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Darkthirty

    Nice “adjustment” between 8:14 – 8:16 CST only 20 ES points in 2 minutes. Picked up some calls and let em do their thing….

  • pepe

    Thanks for this valuable feedback. I moved to the sidelines, did an option refresher and got my head straight. I think the successful early August VIX calls trade got to my head and I returned to an old trading impulse and became careless. Your comment made me stop, think and reevaluate. Thank you! 🙂