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Things Are Looking Up
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Things Are Looking Up

by The MoleAugust 19, 2019

As the old saying goes: Every cloud has a silver lining. And in the case of August that most definitely would be week #34 which isn’t just a positive week but just so happens to be the fourth most bullish week of the year. Unfortunately however event risk is rather significant as the Fed is holding its annual symposium at Jackson Hole.

The market’s general expectation is for Powell to do nothing on Friday to disabuse investors of the widespread perception that the central bank will reduce interest rates by another quarter of a percentage point next month. But whether he’ll open the door to a half-point cut, which some traders are hoping for, is unclear.

Either way there will be plenty of opportunity for market volatility, especially in the midst of the summer vacation season. From a pure price perspective (say that one three times in a row) nothing really bullish happens unless we see a decisive breach > the current daily Net-Line Buy Level at 2844.25.

More long term we are looking at a NLSL at 2965.75 that was taken out in July and will most likely serve as resistance going forward, assuming Powell will keep is comments to a minimum and not freak everyone out again.

Here are the stats I referred to in my intro. A Sharpe ratio of 0.42 is promising but given that it’s August the following chart is more comforting:

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The Dollar is one of the few open positions I’m currently holding . To be honest it’s been slow going and given that we’re in a big Fed week trailing from afar – fortunately at break/even – is the best policy.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    Staying out of this slop pool. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VxzPC-GiAH4

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    a fun way to bump into a girl. but not at a risk of smashing into a guy!

  • HD

    2929 is a fibonacci pivot! Where’s HWB? G is one of the best
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HyanRY9EKj4

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    yes, I’ve been thinking HWB all weekend.

    could be iffy on my favorite.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/93519037ef35620d63c6d9083843abfcfe461256229488d634de5e083a7471a0.jpg

  • BKXtoZERO

    Long TVIX 17.77

  • BobbyLow

    Paraphrasing a Bullet Point on IB this morning that basically said “Indices rising due to anticipated “Stimulous”. It’s all Bullshit but seeing as how the Markets get a Woody on just the thought of free money, I went long Oil UCO at the open and long /MES at 10 AM. I learned a long time ago not to fight this shit and to just go with the flow at least for the day. 🙂

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi BL I still have 1/4 long UNG This a.m bouncing off a lower trend line and channeling
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO
  • HD

    July closed 19.45. Very choppy rally in aug to retest that level after a LL and it rolled over. I’m still not on the nat bandwagon.

  • HD

    Amazing work they’ve done at 2900. Gaps. All BOTs

  • HD
  • Mark Shinnick

    drv breaks support while HYG no different than October 2015. Still long tmv.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Nice hold

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD When does your archery season open ? MT Sept 7 We are ready now. Montana Fish and Game a lot of wolves killing elk.Wolf packs are big currently
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    Long was the way of profit on LABU, trying to figure out if this sector might be a mover, still cheapest sector out there currently PE and FWDPE wise….

  • BKXtoZERO

    I saw there is a zombie deer disease going around and to be careful killing/eating sick looking deer

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    dude, that’s just the red velvet phase.

  • HD

    It opened Friday. I killed in Jan so I’m done this year. Little HD has a rifle tag later. Is there a wolf hunt?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yes HD September thru March wolf hunt We don’t do it only once
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    Mark Mobius ment’d on Friday that the currency war race to the bottom is good for equities…..maybe he is on to something…..unreal snap back on nothing…..

  • BobbyLow

    Yep and at my age I probably shouldn’t be in the stock market but my trading is relatively short term and relatively small amounts of capital at risk at any one time so I’m prpbably OK. There was a time when people my age relied heavily on CD’s in a bank for financial security. I think the current rate of return on a 3 year treasury note is around 1.44%. It’s looking more and more like this rate and CD Rates could go negative and a bank will eventually charge people for holding their money. Fixed dollar savings rates are so low that people in their 70’s and 80’s have been forced into the equity market for quite awhile now. I wonder what happens to them when the next crash happens and their savings are wiped out.

    Having been around a pretty long time, I’m at a loss as to why companies and institutions must have such low interest rates to prosper. This is absolutely total Bullshit.

  • ridingwaves

    right after your comment FED Rosengren says no need for rate cut thru 19…..you would think the market would pull back….not so…

    The fed has forced savers into gamblers…..that’s just pure evil…..the older folks have been reamed big time by speculator rescue team at the fed……

    Speculators have been saved for 10 years now….I would have loved to load up on 15% CD’s back in the 70’s, what a home run that was….too bad I was throwing dirt clods and in latter part chasing waves….

    It almost feels like this currency race to the bottom is the last big hurrah for equities…..

  • Ronebadger

    SPY volume…not convincing
    VIX down 8%…not really a big move, either, for a +1.3% day

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RB Very little follow thru on SPX gap up and Yes SPY volume declining on the 60 min chart
    JULIE

  • HD

    2929 trades. How has the market reacted here last 4 times?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD SPX testing the declining 55 ema with the 21 emabelow 55 ema with very poor volume SPY IMO a dead cat bounce. Possible sideways action setting up i.e minor trading range
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    it’s a legit spot.
    but come on, 2962 or BUST.
    😉

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p92052511126

  • BobbyLow

    I’m glad Pivots work for you. I’ve tried PP’s a few times and I just haven’t done well with them. The first time I short around 2929, I’ll have my ass handed to me. LOL

  • HD

    Just 1 layer of probability. Prefer to stack several. Sometimes pivots need space in price and Time.

  • BobbyLow

    I’ve probably never used Pivots correctly. This is another reason why I’ve probably always gone back to MOMO and sticking with Trend in whatever timeframe I’m trading.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I left small .5R tvix of Friday…took 2.5$ loss on that. Put 1R on today 17.6….dropped half of that 0.35 loss. Holding 0.5R but back peddling. VIX 6 month chart is at center of Bollinger. A drop through would have a long way to drop

  • BobbyLow

    Looks like ME unrest might be keeping Oil Prices higher for awhile.

    No demand? Send a Drone.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/19/oil-markets-middle-east-tensions-opec-report-in-focus.html

  • ridingwaves

    Jackson Hole must be the new Bernanke Put….

  • HD

    There’s a million ways to trade it. I can’t hold this short O/N. It’s dropped 100 handles from here the last 3 times sideways all day and then tank. Let’s keep an eye on it.

  • BKXtoZERO

    So does Jay cave to Trump and cut again big or hold pat and sink him? Election 2020 is this Friday.

  • ridingwaves

    there is no announcement on rates until Sept. meeting….he is just giving a speech this week. I expect him to be very muted in his direction…..

    this seems more about every country cutting rates and devaluing currency……

    the whole fed QE program was about reigning in VIX…..when it acts up, they promise more…

  • HD

    Jmho markets don’t want more cuts. Aka they just cut 7/31 and it tanked.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Selling at the close again…tipping their hand? Or claw….

  • Darkthirty

    That was GG scraping his profits off the table…………

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    thanks, but the Gold line awaits!!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/aef8fe104ff8ea85c915f0ba7828b9affda2ceed6c40481149a3c89cd580b5ff.jpg
    notice the double udder milk-it pattern, LOL.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi GG Everyone ebullient TNX and today gaping up and printing a doji at it’s 8 ema which has been resistance all month. FUTES not doing much
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    This one might be too nice even for Scott to try inflicting pain on you. It will be a sight to behold if it holds up.

  • Darkthirty

    Mebbe 2880, then 2977 on J hole day. Then back up the truck or git yer ass on the bus, but now I might be mistaken…

  • HD

    ladies and gentlemen, the 2929 pivot.

  • Mark Shinnick

    How prevalent is CWD ….as a practical matter for taking game?

  • Darkthirty

    Stay out of the nervous/endocrine systems and you’ll be OK. Don’t forget your BSI

  • Darkthirty

    Has what the treasury told the banksters in 08 when they forced them to take the bailout ever been made public?

  • HD

    CWD?

  • ridingwaves
  • Darkthirty

    Chronic wasted disease…kinda like what the homeless people have. Just popped up in the news again

  • ridingwaves

    heck no but I’m still fuming at the congress being able to empty there accounts on insider info with TARP vote forthcoming while us serfs were flying blind……

    that 2 headed snake needs to be mongoosed by the serfs…..

  • HD

    I have never seen it in AZ.

  • Darkthirty

    Haven’t seen it in IN either

  • Darkthirty

    Patience, grasshopper….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Its a long-cycle infection of prions, able to reproduce by re-conforming the host’s proteins into models of itself. Eating of any nerve, especially brain, tissue risks infection.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys CWD is primarily in the Northern Rockies.Some mule deer in MT have tested positive and a whitetail doe in Libby MT tested positive. No reports of elk or moose in MT
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Watching the Banks $BKX breaks strong support approx 90.75 will be tough going for the bulls
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s everyone?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Every Wednesday Friday and Saturday nights in Jackson Hole WY June thru Labor Day weekend is the Jackson Hole Rodeo. A lot of fun GG You and your family will enjoy immensely
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Doing great Chief UNG 1/4 long remaining and squeezing every ounce of blood out of it
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Below 2914 might be the straw that breaks the camel’s back
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    not much to trade on a day like today…

  • mSquare

    This being ‘Camel market’ is an apt Freudian slip description! Certainly neither many convinced bears or bulls trading much either way…

    Camel Market, with all the awkwardness and keep going slowly grinding along for many days at a time!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    M square possible trading range 2950 – 2825 Breaks either way IMO telegraphs direction intermediate term
    JULIE

  • Ronebadger

    Present! Connecting with friends from elementary school, late 50s, early 60s

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Busts 2914 per comment below
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Smart

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You’re a dinosaur!! 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m right behind ya…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Bears busted 2914 next stop on rodeo 2908 busts that and …
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Less dumb. I am still working on smart.

  • Ronebadger

    ….and I look like one too….

  • Ronebadger

    I SPY Hourly Divergence from last Thu/Fri…let’s see how/if it plays out

  • BKXtoZERO

    NUGT on fire….I guess scalping long would have worked there..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Time Check.

    the great Opposite George wins again!
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    Selling at the close again…. What happened to buying every close?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    rodeos stink, horses and bulls poop! 😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    “Let’s talk about something important.”
    TLT,

    “I’m here from downtown, I’m here from Mitch and Murray.”
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7902964f7c05428a875fe3d38eda3b6067d83b0651788c2d902a415e94e2cf03.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    Nice Gerb! Another stock scare and we will be there. I was quick to take profit on bond short. The size and speed of the most recent move tells me to expect more. Your chart shows how much more.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    not a guarantee. but I think a consensus of us traders can smell something is afoot.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb