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Mexed Missages
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Mexed Missages

by The MoleSeptember 29, 2009

Good morning my intrepid ratlings – I just took a stroll through my morning chart routine and what I see are mixed messages galore. Let’s forget about those insane equity traders for a moment and mosey over to the Dollar:

It’s still fighting for it’s life but thus far I’m seeing a slow grind to the upside – it’s holding its ground, which it should considering that Investor Intelligence readings are registering at 3% Dollar bulls.

Everyone still despises the Dollar, but crude is still unable to catch a bid – yesterday’s doji might however spell the beginnings of a short term swing up – we shall see. I have not been counting waves on this thing but it seems to me that we painting some kind of triangle, so expect yourself for a few more gyrations before it picks a direction. Medium term we might wee 73 on this thing, then 68, and then possibly 80.

Gold seems to have topped – and it’s curious that it seems to have painted a similar pattern as I expect in the works for crude. Unless we breach 940 however pretty much anything can happen however, so let’s not get complacent – the counts in gold remain a bit difficult. And of course note that gold is dropping while crude is pushing upward a little this morning – interesting. But it actually confirms what I have been preaching for over a year now – correlations are ephemeral – they hold for a while and as soon as you bet real money on them they fall apart.

And here’s an interesting little gem for this morning – the NYSE A/D ratio. So, we break yesterday’s highs today but meanwhile the A/D ratio is dropping hard? Now, for the record – I am only using this as a complementary market sentiment indicator. Also note that the TRIN (i.e Arms index) is calculated by dividing the A/D issues ratio by the A/D Volume ratio. So what’s the TRIN right now? Dropping towards a bullish 0.55 while yesterday it closed around 0.8.

Meanwhile those crazy equities are painting some wild swings this morning – seems like I’m not the only one who’s confused. But let’s not fool ourselves – we all know where this is going. In the past few months – whenever the tape looked completely fragmented and out of kilter the eventual path was to the upside. As you all know I’m as short as a midget in a limbo contest but that’s a long term stance. Short term I think that we need to keep expecting highe highs unless the market proves to us that it can take us longer. And that, my dear ratlings – has not yet happened. None of the fancy bearish thresholds I pointed out yesterday has so much as being touched – so right now all we have are hopes and dreams while the market continues to disappoint, discourage, and slaughter one bear after the other.

Now, just for the record – I am not bullish to say the least – quite on the contrary. I would love to tell you rats that it’s down down down from hereon – but although I do see divergences all over the place (which we have been seeing off and on for weeks now) after seven continuous months of pain the bears need to make a stand and finally prove that they can take the tape beyond the bulls comfort level. Which has not happened since February of this year. I still have not seen any panic selling – I have not seen any pain for those mouthbreathers – it’s been one long love fest for them. Irrational exuberance continues irrespective of extremely overbought conditions in equities and horrid news stacking up on the economic front. And we all know what’s coming, or do I have to remind you of that mortgage reset chart I posted a few weeks ago?

But in the end – unless we see the tape go our direction – we have nothing. And that is the attitude you need to assume going forward. Either you trade the swings on a short/medium term basis – if that’s your style – and in that case make sure you read the tape accordingly and are there to trade those swings. Or, if your trading window is more long term – expect more pain and losses before your short positions start paying off. If things start gyrating into November and perhaps December be prepared to exchange your March puts for Junes as theta burn will start catching up with you if we don’t see a turn before January 2010.

10:36am EDT: POMO is currently being held – we all know what that means. A nice sell off after a spike this morning – now followed by some VWAP churn – and with the inevitable spike to the upside before EOD. Be prepared.

11:24am EDT: Here’s some K.D. goodness:

Of course I have mixed feelings about all that ‘audit the fed’ talk. First up, it’ll probably never happen – and secondly – as strange as this might sound it’s not helping our cause. You see all this ‘stretching’ of the tape we’ve seen in equities happens because the Fed is under increasing pressure from Congress, with the Audit the Fed Bill (excellent idea!) receiving support from two-thirds of U.S. House of Representatives members. So Helicopter Ben is doing whatever he can to deflect the pressure – and one way of doing that is to make everyone happy by pushing the tape higher – no matter what.

So, I would appreciate if they would either keep their mouth shut or finally vote to actually audit those pirates – because if they do the tape will come crashing down (and they know that which is why it won’t happen IMNSHO).

11:33am EDT: Today’s POMO is complete – ZH is already on the scene, so I refer you to Tyler’s write up.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • crush1618

    first!

  • grednfer

    Keirsten……are you watching UUP? It busted outside the diagonal this morning. Euro making new lows and USD making new highs……

    I wouldn't buy UUP though…..its correlation to USD is not exact…..it tends to lag a little…..I think FXE is closer to the EURO than UUP is to the USD.

  • Keirsten

    It's on my radar, Gred. 😉

  • Bart7

    dollar pulling back a bit off the highs….. I think the window dressers still have some cash to put to work today

  • molecool

    Oh please don't do this…

  • Keirsten

    UUP is over the 20 EMA, next hurdle is 22.99 fwiw

  • dollar

    nice isn't – still long uup from last week

  • Bart7

    what time frame?

  • fuw

    repost, to complement Mole's dollar chart:

    ————–
    Well defined parallel channel in euro/usd on the 1h, but with some wedge-like tendencies. Bullish wedge or not, that is the question?

    http://www.screencast.com/t/LxKvVNkESx9c

    We are also sitting at a very interesting point on the daily:

    http://www.screencast.com/t/s1vxyELQbhGS

    Based on these charts I would be careful of going long the dollar right now as we could see a bounce. However, if we break through the support we could fall quickly , since there is some air to fill.

  • CorporalCarrot

    DOW & S&P really look like putting in rounded tops very similar to those they put in back in early June.

  • ReturnFreeRisk

    Are we really going to go up on that awful number and this dreadful tape?

  • gmak

    Good post. RIght now on the 3 min EUR we are seeing lower highs and lower lows – but it is quite volatile.

  • crush1618

    Did so hesitatingly … sorry..

  • Keirsten

    Daily, Bart. I always keep both intra-day and daily open.

  • gmak

    Back up to the VWAP on 5 min SPX. looks like it is still holding as overhead resistance. Until it is broken – this may be a down day – even if not on the order of yesterday.

  • Joe8888

    Update 10 min SPY cHART, Channels.20 ma

  • CorporalCarrot

    Don't know if anyone is watching the daily chart with the Fibs……but they are really behaving today. The 50% retracement has repelled the relief rally twice, and the 23.6 has been decent support.

  • humble1 ™

    re: the mortgage reset fear thingy. that just means i-rates will have to stay low for longer and the pumps will have to pump harder and the $$$ will keep finding their way into equities,

  • losershot

    can someone link me the housing chart from a few weeks ago? I tried searching with no success.

  • Bart7

    re: housing, I posted this last night but in case ya missed, Mr. Mortgage is the guy when it comes to housing insight:
    http://mhanson.com/blog
    The Impending Foreclosure Wave Update
    The foreclosure wave is still out there…but it is more of a tsunami now. When tsunami’s build the tide (foreclosures) rolls out for a protracted period of time while the sea (foreclosures in process) swells. Due to foreclosure prevention efforts the sea of foreclosures in process has swollen larger than ever before. In the end these efforts will only serve to make the wave larger and the hit, longer in duration.

  • grednfer

    Euro failing at its 20……..50 is 1.438

  • john_matrix

    Good Post mole, I just think about the mortgage resets, wont ur gov just throw more money at the problem

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    /DX daily showing the long term macd divergence and possible trendline break

    http://screencast.com/t/XTo8dnF2w

  • gmak

    Here is some housing data about the shadow inventory that has yet to enter the system – for anyone thinking that the price bottom is in

    The “shadow’” housing inventory in the U.S. is closer to 7 million units (equivalent to two years of supply!)
    As of July, there were 1.2 million loans that had just entered the foreclosure process.
    There are an additional 1.5 million existing units making their way through the foreclosure process.
    And, a further 217,000 homes in which the borrower has not made a mortgage payment in the past year, but the lender has yet to file notice. In other words, 17% of the homes that are a year past due or more are not yet in foreclosure, up from 8% a year ago.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/rosenberg-ongo

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Looks like the S&P pits don't want to take a direction and it's the VWAP oscillation trade now.

    Normally I'd be leaning to a down close just as you said. But we do have that POMO thingie today. 😉

  • ds2

    Nice one. Thanks for posting it.

  • http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com TwoJacks

    I wouldn't read too much into long-term divergences on MACD. All those really tell you is that total variance has calmed a bit. What I have found is this, what matters most is one hill to the next, or one valley to the next.

  • z12run

    If you are referring to the coming Alt-A mortgage problem, the interest rate is not a big factor. These mortgages are being “recast” and the homeowners are going to see large increases in their monthly payments. Something many of them are not prepared to deal with…

  • CorporalCarrot

    Here we go, back to the days lows I think.

  • Tronacate

    My wife was at the mall yesterday……empty empty……..local Domino's pizza closing down…..I guess I don't see this “recovery”

  • Keirsten

    Change you can believe in

  • CorporalCarrot

    lol

  • ReturnFreeRisk

    Hope is all there is.

  • john_matrix

    I suppose a weak dollor is good for the us, as that will remove some of the debt, but dont know what china thinks about this, on another note china sold off nearly 3% yesterday

  • Joe8888

    Thx, trying to help.

  • humble1 ™

    the refi option will be utilized for many of those and many more. what about the LIBOR based loans? general low i-rates will be kept in place. in this downgrade of the longwave cycle, which assures deflationary pressures, that will not be a problem.

    imho.

  • Tronacate

    Housing prices=dead cat bounce caused by people thinking they are going to clean up like after the S&L crises

  • Hinkognito

    That hasn't caught on yet in Houston. People here are still spending like they are lotto winners.

  • rhae

    SPY 60m, a trendline bust should work this time, better odds anyway…

  • Tronacate

    The death of the middle class began with Reagan…….the Gini coefficient of America measuring wealth distribution is now equal to Mexico

  • Tronacate

    Interesting perspective…….they will hold until 14000 eh?……..jus like the heydays of the NASDAQ……..still holding and hoping

  • Tronacate

    Texas is a different country.

  • Keirsten

    Hope comes from within. We'll build it by trading well. 😉

  • Tronacate

    Ya……with hope comes some trepidation and a healthy dose of fear…..

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    Yeah, I'm in Austin, you'd think we're in the bull market go go days still

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    Tru dat, and we like it that way

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    here in Spain as well..people believe the govt line that this “recession” is over, and will be like 1991 when the recovery blasted off ..BUT..lots of shops closing down still..and people are being suck(er)ed in…

  • Tronacate

    Austin…..still cheap land no?

    I have a Collings guitar….ever hear of them?

  • Norw_chris

    Do you get tacodeli tacos delivered?

  • Carl V

    ES Dec09 just broke its rising midas line; this line is support (currently @1056): IF ES stays below for about an hour it means the uptrend is done. if it rebounds from here it must be within the next 15 minutes or so…wait and see…but see how this line acts as a (temporary?) support.
    (leading volumes are now down on a 5' scale)

    http://screencast.com/t/wXPbIDi57Ai

  • ckeltner

    You almost got away with it too, if it wasn't for those meddling kids and mangy dog. Well that and you changed your name from guest to your real id when you replied back to mole.

  • Styrfart

    Can someone explain for a stuip, like me why dollar is up with gold and oil is flat? dosn't something have to give in?

  • Brian_mk

    The agents I talk to can't find enough sub 150k homes to sell… anything over that isn't moving at all. Plus you have banks sitting on millions of homes that they refuse to foreclose on because of their books. We've lost at least 1/3 of our agent population in the last 2 years.. we were around 3500 agents.. now down to 2200 or less.. haven't seen the actual numbers in a while.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Aw folks, I've still got skin in the game, but CAN I BITCH ABOUT GETTING STOPPED OUT AT 9,825 AND 9,830 AGAIN!!!!!!!!!

    Grrrrrrrrrr

    lol

  • gmak

    uh-oh. At 5% delinquency, most 20 /1 leveraged fin. inst. are effectively bankrupt – never mind the toxic waste.

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/09/fanni

  • Tronacate

    Oil might be going to 45…….imo oil will go down until Iran goes broke……geopolitical tool

  • milingz

    From David Rosenberg this morning:

    “Hence our bearish view on the U.S. dollar, though we acknowledge that the greenback is oversold technically and could be ripe for a rebound if investor risk appetite subsides in coming weeks or months. That said, any administration that engages in erecting trade barriers to placate unions is an administration that would likely be none-too-perturbed to see its currency depreciate in order to bolster local export competitiveness and surreptitiously build a wall against imports.”

  • ReturnFreeRisk

    YES! unless of course, some one else is paying my bills.

  • centerline

    Austin is one of the places my wife and I have considered for relocation. Have some friends that moved there for awhile and liked it. Florida is just a mess and the schools stink.

  • molecool

    I love Rosenberg but you can't trade his excerpts – stick with the charts.

  • centerline

    Morning all. Computer went belly up yesterday in the morning. Limping along now. Probably no trades today unless something goes haywire.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    15 min SPX updated, it met resistance exactly where I thought it would

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • AS2009

    Alpha – there is your 1059 !!!

  • Tronacate

    Volume looks pretty fat today……hmmmm…..
    I woke up to the futures going crazy and thought….oh shit…..now things don't look so bad

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Anonymous

    I just said to keep God out of it. BUT at the top they had almost 5 ounces of gold per s&p, now they have 1, they’ll end up with less than 0,2

    but they’ll just think usd…

  • molecool

    That's why I use alerts instead of stops.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    nq 1708 low – damn close to projected low 1705

    Slow day so far, only 9 nq points made

  • EDC

    rosie is still selling something. remember he lives and works at a Canadian firm.
    can't call everything as it is seen but he definitely has a good grasp of things macro

  • molecool

    Thanks for that.

  • Keirsten

    Mercury Retrograde. So help me it never fails and I don't mean to be a woo-hoo about that stuff either. It's over today, btw.

  • Vardoger

    WOW. FDIC also disclosed they are now negative. From green shoots to brown sharts in 30 days

  • molecool

    Just saw that – expect a massive rally in equities – LOL 🙂

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    what's over?

  • milingz

    Indeed, there is a reason they are economists! No different than those commentators on ESPN talking about statistics.

    Regardless, I do look primarily at the charts, but I find value in the economic rational behind the chart. Any proper investment firm will have economists, technical analysts and traditional analysts working in tandem.

    Agreed though…so much literature out there on any given topic in the market…it will make our heads spin!

  • Tronacate

    Big surprise there…..now GS will loan them money at credit card rates…..assholes

  • Keirsten

    Mercury Retro.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Cheers. Thats a good suggestion.

  • Tronacate

    See where China sovereign is buying toxic assets…..GS is big player…..reminds me of the Japanese buying the golf courses……the oriental gambling bug might be China's unwinding

  • Styrfart

    But doesn't that mean a lot of North-American, oil related businesses will god down as well? thus doing US even more dependent of foreign oil? an embargo against Iran, shouldn't that give a hike in oil?

  • SpeedSkt1

    The 30-year Treasury continues to work higher in the face of comments about rates being hiked and upward-trending equities. Interesting.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    for the non-pantheist in the audience, what does that mean again, and isn't saturn in someone's bottom or something too

  • Tronacate

    Expensive oil will kill our economy…….

  • fuw

    You’re welcome. I’m doing what I can to please our Evil Lord.

  • DMS425

    if oil goes to 45 we are going to make a lot of money being bearish equities.

  • Keirsten

    Is that the best you can do???!? 😉

  • gmak

    Nice SPX pivot at 1058.64 as support. We are having trouble breading through a TD TDST Down at 1056.92;

    Volume chart shows more and more volume at these lower levels – that is usually indicative of inter-day traders and longer term money taking off positions while the intraday traders are the recipients. I see resistance (volume wise) around 1061.50 – 1061.99

  • springheel_jack

    LOL.

    Gaia is your friend alpha.

  • Keirsten

    Ya got me.

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Yes, but we also had my 1069 that could be a 5… (and maybe C)

    Let us pray 😉

  • JoeBear

    Check out TNX: continued new lows. IMO, fixed-income smart money is heading for the exits early.

  • Hinkognito

    too bad we can't short small businesses.

  • Trader_Steve

    >>Let us pray 😉 <<

    Lord, hear our prayer.

    Steve

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    got that right

  • peder1001

    becauseeee…..?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    went flat before report at 10am, missed 10down + 10 up – my chat room keeps me too busy (Mole is right – chat is an overkill)

  • http://followadam.blogspot.com/ stockfiendd

    nooo im losing money

  • Joe8888

    SPY 10 MIN Channel and Fib levels,,and support @ MA's.

  • Keirsten

    It's a trading killer

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    Morning all, well glad to see my puts are working so nicely along with long USD/JPY
    I missed you guys!

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Just kidding, we see our charts, draw or conclusions, take our bets and wait.

    It would be unfitting asking any divinity to crush the living daylights out of this market, might be needed, but it will be a lot of grief for many inocent suckers

  • Tronacate

    Yeah sure…..sneaking around elsewhere……

  • peder1001

    we're holding out our paws and smacking down those horns

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    Hey Peder! 🙂

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    always nice to get a little strange now and again 🙂

  • ReturnFreeRisk

    glad to see you are back. You long USD vs. Yen?? nice. I have been choking on it for a week. But I think it is turning.

  • thelefteyeguy

    look what the cat dragged in 😉

  • AS2009

    Glad to see you back Anna 🙂

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Anonymous

    My EYEOMETER ™ says 0.06 to 0.18 in 2017 with gold between 5k and 7k

  • CorporalCarrot

    Welcome back Anna.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    Hi Return, yes, 4 lots, I should have gotten out earlier, but was busy with emails 😉

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    hehehehe, and that's no pun. 😉

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    🙂 AS2009

  • Styrfart

    LoL my head is spinning, she here, she is their!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    first notice for being late to work!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    thanks CC I missed you guys really

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    my hero! 🙂

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    I can always count on you for a giggle! 🙂

  • Vardoger

    I completely agree 🙂

    lol

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    hehehehe it's good for the soul Var. 🙂

  • Brian_mk

    looks like you were missed as well! welcome back.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    I am going to look at the dollar chart. and see what lurks there. 🙂

  • gmak

    WOuld that be a little strange as in Thelma and Louise got a little strange from brad pitt? 😉

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    Hey Brian, it's all about you guys! 🙂

  • dollar

    10:54 AM Pimco's Bill Gross says he's stocking up on long-end Treasurys as the deflation sceptre returns. “We've exchanged our mortgages for the government's check,” as the Fed wraps up its MBS purchase scheme, Gross says. Pimco's Total Return Fund's investment in Treasurys jumped to 44% from just 25% in July.

  • molecool

    Yeah, she needed a little spanking and I was happy to oblige.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    hahahah wouldn't I love that! why do you think I am using Mrs Smiths' avatar??

  • molecool

    That never happens to any of us.

  • AS2009

    Spanking or hugs … I hope you did whatever was needed to kiss and make up 🙂

  • molecool

    Told ya!!!

  • Brian_mk

    actually it's more about making $$$ and you're one of those that's really good at it.. .lots of great advice and insight 🙂

  • DMS425

    If oil goes below 50 the world econ recovey is all stats and not real at all.

  • dollar

    I'm lurking there! Boo!

  • Vardoger

    $3.5 Billion POMO Closes, All Of It Used To Repurchase 3 Year Auctioned Off 20 Days Ago

    ZH

  • DMS425

    if oil goes below 50 the econ recovery is all hype/statistical. and the market will roll over

  • gmak

    FWIW:
    We are in a bearish cross on the SPX (9 pMA below 34 pMA) and the 9 pMA is still trending down (so is the 34 – but very shallow). I'll re-iterate that there is a pivot at 1058.64 just waiting to catch us.

    VWAP is overhead at 1063.25ish, just above the resistance of the 34 pMA.

    Conclusion: The winds are definitely blowing in the face of the market and it will have a hard time to run up without games. Tomorrow is another story as I expect a number of individual names to ramp into the close.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    hehehe, 🙂

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    Burn baby burn talking to da tape 🙂

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    yeah yeah yeah – you must know my ex-wives

  • Blind_Squirrel

    Still didn't learn a thing I see!!!!

    MEH!!!!!!!!!!!

  • rhae

    Mercury close planet so reactions are quicker, A lot of planet action going on… Neptune, Uranus and Playdough (Pluto) much further away, tho bigger they take longer to play out or timeframe swings larger… I don't play of them but I believe some connection. The question always seems to be, are the financial or mundane… gotta watch out for Mars / Iran / nukes, etc…. I like watching them, Really like Venus… 🙂

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    fwiw, in my opinion this move appears to be corrective. i expect c of ii to finish around 1052, then wave 3 of C could do some damage if you're too short. maybe the employement numbers surprise to the upside who knows, but the market aint behaving as if it were in a iii of P3

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    yea, i am thinking the same Unfortunately too Alpha. 🙂

  • Joe8888

    Bearish Backtest of middle channel ,10 min SPY

  • gmak

    According to TD, the close is expected to be within the range 1053.68 and 1074.43

  • Tronacate

    First time I've seen bearish divergences correcting to the downside for awhile…..so there is a little hope here

  • Styrfart

    I'm at ease! 🙂 thx! but still don't feel to good standing besides Lester!

  • CorporalCarrot

    Folks, forgetting wave counts etc for a few minutes. Does anyone else just “feel” like this market is hanging on by the skin of its teeth?

    I really wouldn't be surprised to see an accelerated selloff into the close. (Which based on whats happened to me today, means you should all immediately go LONG lol :))

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    I don't blame you for that! he is the contrarian indicator poor thing

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    looksl ike falling wedge on /NQ – might play well with proj low of 1705 http://screencast.com/t/VFVuA4nj

  • gmak

    Nope. I “feel” that the market is waiting for the PM tomorrow.

  • standard_and_poor

    If spx doesn't resolve itself to the down side by Friday this market has a good chance of rocketing up with 1075-1085 proving to have been nothing more than a resting point. Always be prepared for the unexpected as well as the most likely course. I have a bullish plan as well as a bearish plan handy.
    I need to see 1040 right quick partner.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    yup
    that is why I am eying long nq at 1705

  • CorporalCarrot

    lol that was the best timed post I've ever made 🙂

  • standard_and_poor

    3% short from 1070 with a 1072 stop.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    i have 1055 area next stop, then 1052 on the 30 minute SPX

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    the lower end of that is more realistic, there is a thin spot below 1058 to the top of wave iv around 1053.50ish

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Looks like Cisco has a gap it wants to fill, if I'm right a chance to make some easy money on a slow day.

  • Tronacate

    Absolutely…….the first few times the “buying the dips” fails….there will be a rush to the exits…….people won't want tot see their retirements smacked 50% again

  • Tronacate

    PH breaking down nicely ……..FSLR rolling over…

  • Bonanza36

    What is the upside of that trade? Hell, we have a 3 handle now on 10 yr.

  • gmak

    We're right on the pivot for SPX that I mentioned earlier. The next one (agreeing with Anna) is down at 1051.51. I don't see any support in between, yet. But it may show up in the TD TA as we move along.

    The 1055 support that was there is gone now on my charts (SPX 5 min) during the last drop from VWAP.

  • Carl V

    Next support for ES Dec09 is 1051; but to me the current break down is encouraging

  • molecool

    Spanking usually does the trick – I haven't lost my touch yet.

  • rhae

    I like to watch price action near critical horrizontal R/S line…. closest Critcal Support ( a hodgepodge of various indicators and osc., moving averages etc.))support on my SPY 60m chart is 105.89… we are there now!!!

  • Trader_Steve

    I can't grab the whole chart to post the link to it here, so go take a look at this major divergence in money flow into this rally:

    http://kennystechnicalanalysisblog.blogspot.com

    Steve

  • molecool

    What's that supposed to mean?

  • Vardoger

    Yeah I'm seeing that wedge on everything. Might pull a little off on break of upper trendline, hopefully it's not a rocket shot

  • Carl V

    Agree but look (on the same chart) at the same kind of divergence in June, and now current money flow is at much higher level even with this new divergence…

  • Blind_Squirrel

    Will respond privately after trading hours.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    Carl, I have 1052 but close enogh 😉

  • DMS425

    that would be sweet

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    Oh now I really feel great, being in such good company :))

  • BaldEagle

    Heya

  • gmak

    I think we'll need to put a few more pins through the pivot at SPX=1058.64 for it to rip and let us through.

    But I agree with you in principle (as per my post up above 6 min later).

    <thumbsup>

  • molecool

    Ahem – is anyone reading this blog?

  • dollar

    I think that Pivot is also the 38.2 fib of the move up from Friday's lows, no?

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    heaayy Bald missed you 😉

  • Nightwind

    I agree, bull wedges on long side, bear wedges on the short side……could be a rocket shot.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    Oh yea, I am having fun now 🙂

  • Carl V

    Annamall, yeah but I saw you use SPX whileI was with ES Dec09. For SPX I have 1056 (2 midas lines and Keltner channel = temporary support expected). And after that I don't see any support execpt the gap of yesterday around 1047.
    Damn this thing is up again 🙁

    http://screencast.com/t/fPNEUBdcTp

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    ahhh that's the difference hang on Carl, 🙂

  • gmak

    I can confirm 1051.92 (just to be an anal-yst about it). That would be around 1056.50 on the SPX.

  • molecool

    I have 'felt' that for a long time but fortunately ignored being suckered into short positions too early. As I said above – no matte what we think the tape will do – I need to see important support lines being breached.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall
  • molecool

    You are assuming it was my fault and you are wrong.

  • Trader_Steve

    >>It would be unfitting <<

    Then I have beeen “unfitting”…the longs have had plenty of time. They are greedy. I have people in my family DEMANDING that they be given their full money back that was in their 401K account at the very high. Those people think that a closing price is like a checking account and someone pilfered it. They are in for a rude awakening, and nothing can get the overwhelming majrity of them to sell a single share.

    Steve

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    pull up a 15 min chart with a 200 period EMA on it

  • Tronacate

    For sure…..my “feelings ” have resulted in several ass-whoopins

  • springheel_jack

    Anyone else seeing a steep bull wedge building on SPX and a triangle on EURUSD?

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    oops i have to tweek some numbers on that
    thanks Alpha

  • gmak

    Someone(s) is/are quick to come in and buy EUR when it gets below 1.4550

  • BaldEagle

    sure you did lol

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    Good people is what makes this blog a great place to be. 🙂

  • Carl V

    I see that but this bull wedge is close a top, it should be at a bottom (SPX); for EURUSD either we have a continuation pattern or…then I see a diamond, a reversal pattern…not clear yet

  • gmak

    I don't know. I don't do pivots on smaller waves. I'm concerned about the Oct 2007 high and the Mar 2009 low, and all the rest just messes up my charts and my trading. I think it is a very good idea – but it doesn't work well for me.

    So, I'll take your word for it and note it as another nail in the support /resistance coffin.

    Thanks!

    ________________________________

  • fuw

    Posted about it early in this thread on the euro/usd, and it sure looks like a wedge. We're at support on the daily as well, so a bounce might be coming. However if we break lower it could drop fast.

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Things not looking good for Microsoft….

    http://www.screencast.com/users/lostillini/fold

  • gmak

    You mean that's not you? 😉

    ________________________________

  • springheel_jack

    Always like spec longs from support though. You can use tight stops with high upside potential.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall
  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    Still short APPL 180/175 looks like I am finally taking a bite out it. 🙂

  • bist

    See ' em both. Looks like more consolidation to shake off short term overbought conditions before the next attempt at breaking through the 10/6/08 gap resistance.

  • gmak

    SPX has broken above the 9pMA – I think we're on our way back up to VWAP and the 34 pMA which are both around 1062.20ish on the 5 min chart.

  • rhae

    Uncle Bucky been trending up nicely… I will get very excited if it can bust up thru 77.30
    currently 77.26 very short term, I just want to keep the trend intact

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Bill had better stop pimping his merchandise

  • Vardoger

    ha, the auto reload has me all screwed up.. How about that chart on ZH, talk about a correlation! And I thought P3 was the opportunity of a lifetime…

  • gmak

    BTW, I haven't mentioned this because it keeps flashing on and off , but the price exhaustion for the EUR at 1.4532 is now qualified (and a new candle has started – so it should be good). The lower bollinger lies in the way but it is starting to bend down. [insert appropriate racy comment here]

    There is some TD-derived resistance at 1.4539 but I think it will collapse easy.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    MA is starting to look awfully good again. Bought OCT 200s about an hour ago. Up 40%. 60 minute breaking a bear flag. Don't let it get away.

    Skål!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    I could not fall asleep till 3AM EST and was sooo tempted to load /dx around 77 🙁

  • Douala

    At the close on Friday, Institutional Accumulation took a large drop and was getting very close to going into Distribution

    http://www.stocktiming.com/Monday-DailyMarketUp

  • gmak

    Man! That EUR = 1.4550 level is just someone's line in the sand. They come in like gang busters to push back up above it. Does anyone have any insight into this?

  • Carl V

    No insight here but definitely the last 3 candles (5') are bullish

  • rhae

    GREED !!!

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    Long IWM from 61 via calls for a trade. possible bullish wedge

  • gmak

    DO they send those to people who are registered on a regular basis?

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    check out the chart… retest of the top of the previous downward channel. Pretty clear signal to get long imo http://screencast.com/t/axh5FsfkytC

  • DMS425

    it look like we turned again

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    And we have our blow off top on WYN, Feel free to short at will…..

  • gmak

    We're just breaking the lower bollinger (again) so I think that that qualified price exhaustion is still bonafide on EUR

  • gmak

    But we've broken the bottom of the wedge on the 3 min EUR chart.

  • fuw

    Yeah, we're both at support from an earlier trendline and a horizontal support zone. Good risk reward to go long with tight stop.

  • gmak

    Guess that;s the consensus. I had better get out of my short based on this.

  • Douala

    gmak
    Yes..they sent one out almost everyday. Go ahead and sign up it is free.

  • insite

    looks like a bull flag about to break on EUR/JPY

  • chumprop

    What is the 9pMA and the 34pMA? Are you talking about moving averages?

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    retest of wedge. TICK trending up now.

  • Tronacate

    HERO sure getting a smackdown lately

  • gmak

    Yes the moving average for 9 periods and 34 periods. I use the p to show that it's not a daily moving average.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    watching the 3 minute chart on FX is too short of a time frame. Anything less than the hourly is noise.

  • fuw

    My bias is bearish, but you have too look at the charts as well. If it breaks through I think that it could drop rapidly. Not trading it myself though, only using it as something to guide me in longer term trading in equities.

  • chumprop

    Yes, I'm trying to get long /ES at 1052. This is the 38.2% retracement of this move lower and the pivot for today… also seems to line up with the descending support of the wedge. If we can just go down one more time to test it I can hopefully get filled. Stop = 1050.0

  • gmak

    different strokes for different folks.

  • gmak

    On the 1 hour EUR, I see a downward channel that began last week. I aslo see that we are down near the bottom bollinger and that we are testing the pivot at 1.4551.

    Thanks. Looking at this puts the noise I like into perspective. Also looks like we have put in a wave 5 down, and will probably be going for the ABC.Next pivot is at 1.4880

    Thanks again V8!

  • chumprop

    Yes, that's what I'm showing… 38.2 at like 1051.32 on the /ESZ9

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    I think you're a little early on this one, but it does look like it will be a good short towards 18

  • springheel_jack

    That would be a nice trade.

    All a matter of perspective though. If this week so far is a retracement of the move down then that is one thing. This may be a retracement of yesterday's move up though, which is a different matter.

  • chumprop

    How did you get the 1055 area? I would like to know your thinking cause it looks like you nailed it. I see 1056 as the 50% retracement of this move lower…

  • rhae

    SPY 60m… Playing with matches can be a dangerous game… I can not get any reliable fresh trendlines on the chart today, so just playing with matches…
    http://screencast.com/t/zTE4a0Sp6

  • AS2009

    Doula – weekend edition of the doctor ?

  • chumprop

    Thanks!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    Hi Chum, I used the 30 minute SPX chart Fibs so IMHO we have more corrective wave to go. 🙂

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    ouch! ever since TK put that on his longs list I've been watching it, but it looks like he lost some money on that one

  • centerline

    I don't know if anyone here follows the airlines. I dabbled a little here and there a few months ago – made out great on UAUA. Looks to me like the party is over for UAUA. Maybe same for DAL. Maybe a worthy short. Thoughts?

  • rhae

    works for me…

  • chumprop

    Ah… the 50% retracement of yesterday's move up through this morning's highs is 1051 though… so it seems lots of support potentially lining up in this area…

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Well, the bear flag implies puts… But my bad. I bought puts. With the whole CC bill floating through the house, CC companies are not too happy.

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    me too, at least 1052 Palezzzzzzzzzzzz 🙂

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    yes, you got it chum good work 🙂

  • Nightwind

    spx could be tracing out IHS in 1 min

  • chumprop

    Looks like we could be forming more of a descending channel than a wedge at this point.. Looks like the resistance broke, retested, and broke again around 12:31 EST.

  • chumprop

    Does 1050 seem like a good stop to you for this trade or is that too tight?

  • springheel_jack

    1051 ES. Yes. Good play either way.

  • AS2009

    Anna – thoughts on AAPL ?

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    That is tight, but I would use it, cause if we break 1052 next stop I have is 1047 area G/L chumprop

  • chumprop

    Thanks Anna, you too!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    I am in an Oct 180/175 put spread for a swing trade. 🙂 paid 1.24

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    anytime 🙂

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    anyone else think may get a large move in USD here?

  • lilme

    Marc Faber on the US, USD, well worth your time:

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/163919-marc-far

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    USD will have to take a side soon, whether it falls back under the trendline or breaks out is anyones guess

  • chumprop

    Looks like inverted H&S on the 1-min w/ target around 1061… Neckline = 1057.5

  • AS2009

    Anna – UUP resistance @ 22.95-23.05 ….multiple lines here … really need to see break of 23.05 for any more upward movement

  • shortcover

    i've played UAUA before and had it for about a year and a half. kept writing calls against it until my basis was nearly nil. got called out recently. that one is a fun one to play with and trade around a core position. Although oil may decline in the short term (which may add to recent sector gains in the airline space), if the consumer spending headwinds are to be believed, then this group may get a hatchet-chop when the high beta names come back to earth. I'm interested in UAUA, but around 3 bucks…that's a fair price.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    Mr Doom just pushed down the dollar great (NOT)

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    Mr Doom just pushed down the dollar Marc Faber (thanks Lilme)

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    just a wave iv, there will be another push up in a bit

  • Joe8888

    possible inverse Head N Shoulder Pattern , we weed aclose above the neckline
    first,,,, target 106.60 ish,,,,

    Something to watch , for a possible nice scalp trade,,

  • rhae

    He is not the only one, but until China gets comfortable with their economy and starts revaluing the rimimbi / upwards… I do not see a mjor problem short term

  • AS2009

    Alpha – with a move up in the $, that would mean equities down … which would coincide with your 1052 …. what are you seeing for the $ after that ?

  • dollar

    OK, c'mon, everybody out and push!

  • centerline

    I am thinking about it as more of a lottery pick on the short side. A handful of november puts.

    Sector rotation is the only real answer I can put out here for the run-up. The airlines are not profitable. Forecasts for the coming “years” are dismal. As the big boys rotate out, I don't think cheap oil is enough to keep the prices up. UAUA higher debt load, near term obligations are ugly, and smaller market cap is why UAUA comes to the top over DAL as a potential short.

    Well, that is my thought here. Needs more research though. On UAUA, I would like to see more movement towards the neckline on the pattern that shall not be named (best viewed on 1m or 3m chart) as well.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    yea! push hard!

  • Trader_Steve

    Thanks….where I think he is “technically” wrong is that I agree with Anna Schwarz in the WSJ in the winter of 2008. Bernanke learned nothing and is pushing on a string against deamnd destruction. I don't see how he will pick up the velocity of money, which collapsed.

    I think the Fed's biggest fear is deflation and we are going to get it. But to be fair to Farbeer, who I respect greatly, he did say we could see a rally in stocks but a decrease in their real value. Absent any inflation and a growing money supply (it is currently decreasing at an alarming raate) he is saying that he thinks stocks are overpriced and headed lower.

    Thanks,
    Steve

  • dollar

    Anna, what did Faber say?

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall
  • dollar

    Thanks

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    Out 40 pips higher X 4 lots = profit I keep 🙂

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    anytime 🙂

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    I know Rhae, I just took my 160 pips and sold! 🙂

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    great call Joe 🙂

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhh LOL

  • Styrfart

    God, you must be on fire today! 🙂 go anna go! loL

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    hehehe just went long EUR/USD for a scalp 🙂

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    Hey, I didn't know you were reppin' the 512. My wife and I just left Austin not too long ago for LA.

  • Joe8888

    i bought them back here ,,

  • Scrillhog

    Thx POMO…. Been busy working on some research today… I'll post some charts later tonight but there seems to be a big cluster of spiral dates around 10/9 – 10/13.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall
  • BaldEagle

    Where are the hell are the bears? This is pathetic

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    I am throwing up as we speak 🙁

  • Joe8888

    did any one play that scalp with me…? on the inverse,,,?

  • gmak

    No. I missed it. Was otherwise pre-occupied. Great call, though!

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    too bad, how do you like LA?

  • PeterK80

    Looks like we counced off the 38.2% retracement from today's high and Fridays low. Approaching upper trendline as resistence. If we break it this may turn bullish…

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=10&st=2

  • Brian_mk

    I think they turned this guy loose on the bears ..

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=woW1ZdxcS6s

  • Joe8888

    could go higher,, but i rather get out early,,, and bank , what i can ,,,,,

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    I have wave a of 2 as a leading diagonal and if it is it should retrace 78.6% this takes b to around 1066.50

  • BaldEagle

    Let's face it, there is no selling pressure. The government/Fed has brainwashed people into believing everything is okay, despite all the evidence to the contrary. As long as the sheeple are fat dumb and complacent the market will whisper ever higher.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    hahaha very cute 🙂

  • ReturnFreeRisk

    I am glad I puked all my shorts this morning in anticipation of “data” and just been watching and waiting. This market makes me sick to my stomach. I wake up early morning 3-4am. The market seems sensible until 7am EST. Then the permabulls (who mostly reside here given all the hope and change going around) and PPT come online and we get all sorts of nonsense mkt action.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    Brainwashed is the key word Bald, it will end badly, just tired of the rigged game 🙂

  • Keirsten

    I caught it, Joe, and ran w/profits.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    Not a bad move Return, this freaking tape is sooooooooooo RIGGED it's sickening.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    I am staying short here though. 🙂

  • Osso

    short GDX 44.73….sloss 44.93

  • dollar

    I don't think the sheeple are even in this…

  • Keirsten

    Yep 😉

  • Joe8888

    that was you, i saw, running like the Dicken's,with your heels in your hands…lol

  • sela84

    i see angels are back 😉 been lucky today and bought also fas @ 83,74

  • gmak

    Bloomberg just told me that Citigroup exited a trade that recommended betting the dollar would strengthen against the Yen. They lost 2.7% on the trade (it was advice). Guess that it's now safe to go long the dollar. 🙂

  • gmak

    If I were going to do any distribution, it would be tomorrow when I know there will be a lot of single names having their tape painted. Just thinking out loud.

  • Keirsten

    … like playing in traffic on the freeway. LOL

  • dollar

    Me to, not buying (!) this rally yet…

  • BaldEagle

    Some are..investing for the long term LOL

  • fuw

    Update on euro/usd from earlier chart. Here is a 4h view of why we are at an interesting point. The horizontal lines represent fuzzy support zones from the daily perspective:

    http://www.screencast.com/t/bAFSadhVPy6

  • Trader_Steve

    Anyone else sseing a LD (leeading diagonal) and thinking this is a correction up here?

    http://www.screencast.com/users/mkt_ronin/folde

    Chart is a few minutes late…this is my first use of Jing.

    Steve

  • gmak

    It looks like it is from August. I'm not sure what I'm looking at here. Help, please.

  • Joe8888

    yeah…lol

  • fuw

    Yeah saw that. Screencast is mixing graphs with teh same itles it seems. Trying again:

    http://www.screencast.com/t/kMQXh97W

  • gmak

    Sure beats a kick in the teeth with a frozen boot.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    see my response to AS2009, 11 minutes ago

  • gmak

    Yes officer, that's the chart. That's the EUR that is giving me a hard time today. lol.

    Sure does look interesting. I wish I had time to get out of my short and go long earlier. Now I'm on another ride.

    That chart clearly shows what I have been seeing – all the volume coming in below the 1.4550 level. Cool.

  • Joe8888

    update on SPY Channel , middle channel line….

    http://www.screencast.com/users/chartwiz/folder

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    If you can get past the traffic, ridiculously inflated cost of living, personal income tax, fires, crime, destitute economy and insolvent government, the weather is really, really nice. We knew all this ahead of time, but had we stayed we feared we would have ended up in the belly of a large fish, if you know what I mean.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    ha, ha, well just be careful what you traded this fish for

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    I would like a helping of 1 year ago today…down 600 points :))

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    calls or puts – sorry I am missing the context.

  • fuw

    Nice chart. The bottom channel line should be pretty soft though, but it would be nice to see a test of it.

  • Trader_Steve

    So you have to be saying that the move to the high today could not have been v of C in an elongated irregular flat I presume?

    As to a LD, isn't its position as an “a” wave failry uncommon? I was using that to give the odds to that top being the end of 2. But I admit that my FKN economics degree has gotten in the way for about 3 months now.

    Steve

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    where are the good old days ???
    http://www.screencast.com/users/Annamall/folder

  • anthem

    wow, GS is had a nice big long candle. Shorted this sucker last week from 184, I think I'm going to take another stab at it again. . . .

  • springheel_jack

    🙂

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Just around the bend doll, just around the bend. And we all know… “ride that trend right 'til the end.”

    Skål!

  • anthem

    tell me about it. . .

    Looks like the vwap appears to be a solid floor for the /ES right now. .. I guess we aren't allowed to go beneath the vwap for fear of retribution. .. .

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Shit, I'd be happy with a 1/4 of that!

    Baby steps Anna, baby steps. Gotta teach the market to crawl before it can get up and fall…

    Skål!

  • Cerebro82

    Hey folks, been lurking for a bit… Real light trading…. Am short right now. Stop above 61.8 retrace on the /NQ..
    http://content.screencast.com/users/Cerebro82/f

  • Tronacate

    Time for FSLR to regain its senses

  • AS2009

    Have pity on the sheeple and our 401K's 🙂

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yup… just about. Maybe one last push towards 154, but then it will begin to die again…

    Skål!

  • centerline

    zzzzzz. (drool). zzzzzz.

  • Cerebro82

    A wave (iii) to the downside would be nice right now…

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    it has become my alternative count, no longer my primary

  • EDC

    turning rocks over to find volume.
    where is the volume?

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I'd say it is just mean revision. We spent most of the trading day below it. Time for a little consolidation above before it gives way again…

    Skål!

  • raised_by_wolves

    I've sleep in and started my day late. My initial reaction to seeing today's swings on a 1 minute chart was one of surprise. “Holy Shit!” I exclaimed out loud and loud enough for everyone in the library including the librarian to hear me. Oops.

    However, once I stepped back to 15 minute, 30 minute, and daily views, I became “jack's complete lack of surprise.” Why? The price action fits the price channel I had drawn.

    The three points are the March lows, the July lows, and the September 17th high:

    http://screencast.com/t/9NKuUFWAiEl9

    You can see that today's high touched the 50% median line:

    http://screencast.com/t/xjLbxZIT

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    wake up – big move is coming

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    my guess is we sell of to the close

  • gmak

    lol. up or down?!

  • Douala

    The mid afternoon 911 Dr McHugh Report. The final word on EW counts!
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Stocks are down mildly mid-day Tuesday, correcting a five wave rally that started at our recent phi mate turn date of September 25th. It looks to us as if wave (E) up has started, the final wave of C-up of (B) up before a stock market plunge hits. No guarantees, but there is a dangerous stock price pattern nearing completion in the technology sector, the NDX, which is warning a 40 percent plunge in that index is possible. The downside target is 1,050, however when it starts is indeterminate at this time.

    $NDX http://www.screencast.com/t/tnKoaIar

    It looks to us as if wave 1 up of (E) completed Tuesday morning, that wave 2 down is underway, a mild decline, to be followed up 3-up, 4-down, then the final wave 5 up. Counting waves here could be very helpful in identifying when the Bear Market Rally from March 2009 ends. We are also watching for the develpoment of a Hindenburg Omen, which may not appear until a week before or after wave (B) tops.

    SPX http://www.screencast.com/t/RoEGjyLTcVBE

    [Only kidding on my subject title fellow rats 🙂 ]

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    you asking that from a clown???

  • PeterK80

    I apologize if anyone has already posted this but this is looking interesting…

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g

  • gmak

    You're a better clown than the MSM. 🙂

  • Douala

    LOL … Ooooooo my did I need that laugh… +1 for the clown.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    The market is making me want to get the killer monkeys….

    Skål!

  • shortcover

    i see. well i think we are in agreement seeing that i feel it’s a safe buy at 3…ie short it or buy puts and close/sell the puts around that price point. i am not sure what prompted me to go long an airline in the first place back in 07/08, but the calls were juicy 6 months out so I kept writing them and almost zeroed out my basis within a year and a half. shorting airline stocks outright i think is way too risky even if they are saddled in debt. puts would be the more prudent option…pardon the pun…

  • rhae

    I would like a down close in the 60m timeframe on current bar… For no other reason than my stale trendlines are growing hair… I want a fresh anchor point….

  • dollar

    Where's PRS? Are we gonna get some action here at 2:00?

  • Douala

    Want to kill 8 mins waiting for the market to pop at EOD? Isaiah64v4 posted this yesterday and I thought it was very special. She tells a story with pictures in the sand.

    From the TV show “Ukraine’s got Talent” …

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=518XP8prwZo&feat

    Be sure the sound is on. The words at the end are said to mean “you are always near to us”

  • molecool

    Yeah, we are all waiting but might get the inverse. Wait for EOD – if that's a non-starter than we might have a shot – otherwise they'll paint it up for a follow up rally tomorrow (and new highs by the end of the week).

  • molecool

    What are you – 8 inches high at most… Easy for you to be short.

  • Keirsten

    Chart of LQD- corp trash

    http://tinyurl.com/yec2bf9

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    Just reflecting about that day one year ago, sighhhhhhhh 🙂

  • Bart7

    interesting, thanks for the update….

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    1052 close, my guess

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    Just my HO but looks like we might close around 1062 SPX ( grrrrrrrrrrrr)

  • springheel_jack

    POMO day today though alpha, and quarterly opex tomorrow.

    Might sell off, might not though.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    I prefer yours Alpha…:)

  • Carl V

    This is probably the most interesting chart: 3 fan lines within 3 fan lines ! Nobody can say when the last fan line will be broken…can be within weeks or…today…but when it will be broken I think this will be devastating…and looking at the chart we are so close from this 1040 level of SPX….20 points this is really nothing. This is what helps me to hang on on my put and bearish ETFs. Thanks for forwarding this chart.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    OK i change my mind 1053.50

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I'd still take that happily…

    Skål!

  • insite

    i'm kind of new to the whole (admittedly FREAKY) fibonacci relationship deal. i get the fib price retrace/extension concept & the fib time concept, but i'm not sure i understand the fib fan concept. what's the deal with the fans?

  • gmak

    You have a ho who gives you market tips?

  • EDC

    hmm… my comments didnt post.

    anyways, seeing divergences on the $tick, IM-WAG-O we should close below 1064 today.
    yaaawn… to the action tho…

  • dollar

    The POMO was kind of small though, wasn't it?

  • wooooo

    lol, nice. where can i go about finding one of these for myself anna?

  • Tronacate

    Gawd I wish AIG would just die…..I hate that fucking company

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn
  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    hahaha I hope Alpha is right. I just put on
    IWM 60/57 Bear put spred November for .90 reward up to 2.10 🙂

  • springheel_jack

    Yes, fits the day really.

  • Bart7

    triangle on the S&P 5? support at the trendline coming last Friday lows, retesting now….

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    Fans I haven't worked with yet, but would like to Insite. 🙂

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    I would take that as well Alpha…

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    sorry not my department, you'd have to ask Mole about that one.. I have a gigolo 🙂

  • gmak

    SPX is right at the VWAP and just bounced up off of it. VWAP is about 1062.70

  • bshah

    guys,
    if you remember Keirsten's post few days ago, she drew chart for DECK.. ( price was … any guess… $85.90 ).. It touched the same and back down… Does any one of you thinking of going short DECK ? I don't have software to do chart, but it must be interesting ( Star ) ..? may be…

  • fuw

    Yes, clearly an important level that is being watched. Would be nice with a second retest.

    closeup:
    http://www.screencast.com/t/Kvjj9EjpD4G

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    Finally lunch since we are levitating 🙂

  • Tronacate

    Need a nice phat 200+ point drop…….just a sweet bear growl to remind these tards what can happen

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I'd rather give them no warning and completely rape them by surprise…

    Skål!

  • Trader_Steve

    You mean you hate this government? Oh wait…so do I (well most of it except for the military and law enforcement)..smoke em' if you got 'em.

    Steve

  • anthem

    1053.50 SPX would be great but hey, I'll take 1053.50 ES as well. . .

  • Tronacate

    Sounds like the way a married man has to operate…..lol…….good concept……..catch 'em napping

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    hourly count stands http://screencast.com/t/JR9t5GCXfFF
    (except for we might get today's closing bounce or tomorrow morning – they will not give up that easy)

  • PeterK80

    Bart, I am also still holding short. We did have one overthrow of the upper resistence (some have it drawn differently) but once the last fan line breaks down… the whole wedge will IMO. I think it will very be soon.

  • fuw

    That clown is seriously creepy.

  • Tronacate

    I would love this government…….if it would strip the tentacles of GS/FED/insurance companies/lobbyists out of its anus

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Good luck with that….

    Skål!

  • Tronacate

    Yah……would have to be a French revolution style uprising…….wonder how Thain's head would look on a commode?

  • Tronacate

    Law enforcement?……you mean the highway tax collectors?

  • Vardoger

    /es 1-min is perfect channel intraday. I'd post a chart but since I installed Snow Leopard my app crashes every time I attach a chart to mail or browser. Has anyone else had similar issues and a fix before I call apple care?

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    LOL, no doubt. I guess it is about time for the “evil ben” and “evil hank” Halloween masks again isn't it…

    Skål!

  • raised_by_wolves

    Call me crazy for channels: I replicated your top trend line, left it intact for a moment, but ultimately couldn't control my urge to transform it into a 50% median line. You may notice that it's at a slightly different angle now after some tweaks. Thanks for the inspiration, mate!

    http://screencast.com/t/UqzxCfgGR

  • EDC

    which app?

  • Tronacate

    I want a Hank mask for the photo radar here in AZ……

  • Vardoger

    Hello Iran

  • gmak

    I don't think that will happen during the NorthAm day. I think we might up to that 1.46ish at the top of the downward 1 hour channel – and then come back down to test.

    It is a pivot line – and they all fall once enough holes have been put in them.

    ________________________________

  • Vardoger

    If I try to attach a chart into mail from the desktop, mail stops responding. Likewise with Firefox. It usually takes about three attempts to get it to work.

  • Tronacate

    Interesting show on history channel……Islam…….it's Saudi Arabia that's exporting the radicalism with it's petrodollars.

  • http://snpmonster.blogspot.com/ SnPMonster

    disqus really sucks, it interrupting with my trading programs..

  • Tronacate

    Interesting show on history channel……Islam…….it's Saudi Arabia that's exporting the radicalism with it's petrodollars.

  • raised_by_wolves

    The price action is at the limits of my purple channel. In other words, my upper purple channel line is acting as resistance. Will it hold or will it breakout?

    http://screencast.com/t/UqzxCfgGR

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    That would be fucking great…

    Skål!

  • fuw

    Not to be mean, but with that many lines thrown together in the same area one of them is bound to mark each and every turn of the market. The question if only which one of them, something only seen in hindsight. I also like setting up parallel channels with multiple lines, but that looks a bit excessive.

  • bergs

    Alpha
    I noticed your green [iv] overlaps your green [i] counting down to your blue a.

  • Tronacate

    Holy shit…..that was sweet

  • PeterK80

    Thanks for another prespective. I have seen this bear market wedge drawn so many ways… I spent a whole day trying to figure out exactly where it went on a 10 min time frame but gave up. Once it breaks I think we will know.

  • http://snpmonster.blogspot.com/ SnPMonster

    I see there is a possibility that SPY could launch from the bottom of the channel like it did yesterday.
    Watching the rails and some industrials that has pulled back.

  • gmak

    Could you be just a little bit more cryptic?

  • Tronacate

    A big box just decided it's time to take some prophet

  • rhae

    Markets are like the sand drawings, they continuously change and morph as fresh anchors occur throughout the day… Finally I get to draw a new picture… which still looks undecided, which should be no surprise… my daily chart currently showing a red doji…
    SPY 60m, I won't even guess http://screencast.com/t/dNv5yXvs

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    he is talking about T.K. – I wonder – why would “box” wants to “take him”

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    the Lord Voldemort of patterns is on the SPX

  • Bart7

    Lord who?

  • raised_by_wolves

    I've de-cluttered my chart.

    http://screencast.com/t/B5o9whBuOjW

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    Launch just before the close and then a sharp reversal in the futures after the close…..

  • goldpackers

    Short CMTL – finished a diagonal 5th wave that started at 26.40. Should retrace back to that point. Beautiful gap reversal last week

    SPG looks 5 waves down and in a volatile B or 2 wave

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    Hey guys my take is we close around 1062, ( darn it) so I am off to do some much needed errands. the dogs/cats have no food, and can't have that. 🙂

    see you later 🙂

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    you have not seen “creepy” yet!

    YUMMY !!!

  • springheel_jack

    Is Lord Voldemort a bull or a bear though?

    Bad manners & no sense of restraint. I'm thinking he's a bull.

  • TheCrowe

    He who shall not be named… H&S, I'm guessing.

  • gmak

    Neither. He is a GS minion or head.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    for the next 1hr and 15 mins. he's a bear

  • dollar

    H&S (serial reference fail Alpha)

  • Norw_chris

    Does the move up need to touch the top of the diamond to test?

  • dollar

    TK already announced same for Russell so that's a two fer

  • springheel_jack

    🙂

    Think you may well be right there.

  • C's & 3's

    Here's what I'm thinking is going on http://www.screencast.com/users/ed_ryan/folders

  • Carl V

    Chris: no, absolutely not, it is just that it would made the pattern more symmetric compared to the left side but it might as well break down now. The key for diamond is: volatility steadily increases (left side) to a paroxism then decreases as it is doing now (see the number of people more or less sleeping now 😉
    Then, a sudden break and everybody wakes up!

  • raised_by_wolves

    No offense taken. My presentation skills need improvement. The cyan lines were another perspective for Peter. I should have highlighted those. I should have taken the lavender lines off altogether and reduced the opacity of the blue and the purple lines. The blue and purple lines are the ones I'm actually using to make trade decisions.

  • Carl V

    To be complete about this diamond: it must not break the last pivot high at 106.53 otherwise it means: pattern failure and up up up

  • rhae

    good chart, looks like it has been working for you…..

  • http://snpmonster.blogspot.com/ SnPMonster

    somebody buying/selling vix oct calls 55/60, sounds kinda crazy.

  • rhae

    probably so, unless it drops right to critical at 105.90 on SPY

  • Norw_chris

    Thanks. I am trying to gain a bit of experience from watching different patterns people mention and seeing how they play out. I need a feel on some of these before I trade them. Thanks again.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    yea I am still lurking and now I am fairly convinced unless something really gives Rhae 🙂

  • Trader_Steve

    I think you jusst drew what I call aa “mirror image.” Rather than a head in the middle it's usually a quick spike and reversal of a fair degree and then it tries to paint wwhat came before it. Usually, the pattern reverses in just about the same time it took to form. That would mean a drop by the end of the day to around 104.75.

  • http://snpmonster.blogspot.com/ SnPMonster

    Maybe, of course the other scenario is a breakdown…lol

  • Trader_Steve

    Beatlejuice, Beatlejuice, Beatlejuice!

    Steve

  • dollar

    Absolute torpor

  • Tronacate

    I'm just sitting around holding my purple channel…….

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    i hope this triangle isn't wave iv and the move up isn't finished yet, but it clearly looks like the better count on the BKX

  • Tronacate

    Nice chart……thnx

  • dollar

    Hey who's in Hawaii?
    A large 7.9-magnitude earthquake off Samoa has resulted in a tsunami warning for much of the Pacific, and a tsunami watch for Hawaii, though no watch or warning for the Western U.S. or Canada.

  • AS2009

    Can you post the chart Alpha ? So more upside on BKX ?

  • Tronacate

    Isn't Survivor in Samoa right now…..that would make for a wild show….all wiped out in a Tsunami

  • Joe8888

    Not Sure about this one, something to watch,,,

    Possible inverse again…//? 10 min spy chart….watch the neckline…a close above first…

  • BigIslandLife

    thanks for the warning at 1800 elevation hope it is not to big

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    i'm long FAZ but will tighten my stops, look as C3's chart below. The 60 mins SPX chart would argue against it. look at the histogram on a 60 min chart. very negative. so we'll have to wait and see.

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • Nightwind

    I was in FAZ earlier…then bailed

  • Carl V

    If we have a couple of 5' candles down from now this is good not only because it would break down the diamond but also because it would create a “hook” pattern in the MACD as explained in EWI free book “Ultimate tech analysis book” or something: the MACD seems to reverse in one direction but just before the 2 lines cross it goes opposite => strong signal if you take time to backtest this. But not sure this pattern will resolve today. If not my bet is we have a gap down tomorrow open.
    http://screencast.com/t/mB3GapewKsX

  • Joe8888

    did any one play that scalp with me…? on the inverse,,,?

  • PeterK80

    Looks like we bounced off the 38.2% retracement from today's high and Fridays low. Approaching upper trendline as resistence. If we break it this may turn bullish…

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=10&st=2

  • Keirsten

    I caught it, Joe, and ran w/profits.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I am staying short here though. 🙂

  • sela84

    i see angels are back 😉 been lucky today and bought also fas @ 83,74

  • gmak

    Bloomberg just told me that Citigroup exited a trade that recommended betting the dollar would strengthen against the Yen. They lost 2.7% on the trade (it was advice). Guess that it's now safe to go long the dollar. 🙂

  • gmak

    If I were going to do any distribution, it would be tomorrow when I know there will be a lot of single names having their tape painted. Just thinking out loud.

  • dollar

    Me too, not buying (!) this rally yet…

  • fuw

    Update on euro/usd from earlier chart. Here is a 4h view of why we are at an interesting point. The horizontal lines represent fuzzy support zones from the daily perspective:

    http://www.screencast.com/t/CX0DNWk77

  • Trader_Steve

    Anyone else sseing a LD (leading diagonal) and thinking this is a correction up here?

    http://www.screencast.com/users/mkt_ronin/folde

    Chart is a few minutes late…this is my first use of Jing.

    Steve

  • gmak

    It looks like it is from August. I'm not sure what I'm looking at here. Help, please.

  • fuw

    Yeah saw that. Screencast is mixing graphs with the same titles it seems. Trying again:

    http://www.screencast.com/t/kMQXh97W

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    see my response to AS2009, 11 minutes ago

  • gmak

    Yes officer, that's the chart. That's the EUR that is giving me a hard time today. lol.

    Sure does look interesting. I wish I had time to get out of my short and go long earlier. Now I'm on another ride.

    That chart clearly shows what I have been seeing – all the volume coming in below the 1.4550 level. Cool.

  • Joe8888

    update on SPY Channel , middle channel line….

    http://www.screencast.com/users/chartwiz/folder

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I would like a helping of 1 year ago today…down 600 points :))

  • fuw

    Nice chart. The bottom channel line should be pretty soft though, but it would be nice to see a test of it.

  • Trader_Steve

    So you have to be saying that the move to the high today could not have been v of C in an elongated irregular flat I presume?

    As to a LD, isn't its position as an “a” wave failry uncommon? I was using that to give the odds to that top being the end of 2. But I admit that my FKN economics degree has gotten in the way for about 3 months now.

    Steve

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    where are the good old days ???
    http://www.screencast.com/users/Annamall/folder

  • anthem

    wow, GS is had a nice big long candle. Shorted this sucker last week from 184, I think I'm going to take another stab at it again. . . .

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    🙂

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Just around the bend doll, just around the bend. And we all know… “ride that trend right 'til the end.”

    Skål!

  • anthem

    tell me about it. . .

    Looks like the vwap appears to be a solid floor for the /ES right now. .. I guess we aren't allowed to go beneath the vwap for fear of retribution. .. .

    I was hoping that picture wasn't talking about you here this morning. .. glad that thing resolved itself out.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Shit, I'd be happy with a 1/4 of that!

    Baby steps Anna, baby steps. Gotta teach the market to crawl before it can get up and fall…

    Skål!

  • Cerebro82

    Hey folks, been lurking for a bit… Real light trading…. Am short right now. Stop above 61.8 retrace on the /NQ..
    http://content.screencast.com/users/Cerebro82/f

  • Tronacate

    Time for FSLR to regain its senses

  • AS2009

    Have pity on the sheeple and our 401K's 🙂

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yup… just about. Maybe one last push towards 154, but then it will begin to die again…

    Skål!

  • centerline

    zzzzzz. (drool). zzzzzz.

  • Cerebro82

    A wave (iii) to the downside would be nice right now…

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    it has become my alternative count, no longer my primary

  • EDC

    turning rocks over to find volume.
    where is the volume?

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I'd say it is just mean revision. We spent most of the trading day below it. Time for a little consolidation above before it gives way again…

    Skål!

  • raised_by_wolves

    I've sleep in and started my day late. My initial reaction to seeing today's swings on a 1 minute chart was one of surprise. “Holy Shit!” I exclaimed out loud and loud enough for everyone in the library including the librarian to hear me. Oops.

    However, once I stepped back to 15 minute, 30 minute, and daily views, I became “jack's complete lack of surprise.” Why? The price action fits the price channel I had drawn.

    The three points are the March lows, the July lows, and the September 17th high:

    http://screencast.com/t/9NKuUFWAiEl9

    You can see that today's high touched the 50% median line:

    http://screencast.com/t/xjLbxZIT

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    wake up – big move is coming

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    my guess is we sell of to the close

  • gmak

    lol. up or down?!

  • Douala

    The mid afternoon 911 Dr McHugh Report. The final word on EW counts!
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Stocks are down mildly mid-day Tuesday, correcting a five wave rally that started at our recent phi mate turn date of September 25th. It looks to us as if wave (E) up has started, the final wave of C-up of (B) up before a stock market plunge hits. No guarantees, but there is a dangerous stock price pattern nearing completion in the technology sector, the NDX, which is warning a 40 percent plunge in that index is possible. The downside target is 1,050, however when it starts is indeterminate at this time.

    $NDX http://www.screencast.com/t/tnKoaIar

    It looks to us as if wave 1 up of (E) completed Tuesday morning, that wave 2 down is underway, a mild decline, to be followed up 3-up, 4-down, then the final wave 5 up. Counting waves here could be very helpful in identifying when the Bear Market Rally from March 2009 ends. We are also watching for the develpoment of a Hindenburg Omen, which may not appear until a week before or after wave (B) tops.

    SPX http://www.screencast.com/t/RoEGjyLTcVBE

    [Only kidding on my subject title fellow rats 🙂 ]

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    you asking that from a clown???

  • PeterK80

    I apologize if anyone has already posted this but this is looking interesting…

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g

  • gmak

    You're a better clown than the MSM. 🙂

  • Douala

    LOL … Ooooooo my did I need that laugh… +1 for the clown.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    The market is making me want to get the killer monkeys….

    Skål!

  • rhae

    I would like a down close in the 60m timeframe on current bar… For no other reason than my stale trendlines are growing hair… I want a fresh anchor point….

  • dollar

    Where's PRS? Are we gonna get some action here at 2:00?

  • Douala

    Want to kill 8 mins waiting for the market to pop at EOD? Isaiah64v4 posted this yesterday and I thought it was very special. She tells a story with pictures in the sand.

    From the TV show “Ukraine’s got Talent” …

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=518XP8prwZo&feat

    Be sure the sound is on. The words at the end are said to mean “you are always near to us”

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, we are all waiting but might get the inverse. Wait for EOD – if that's a non-starter than we might have a shot – otherwise they'll paint it up for a follow up rally tomorrow (and new highs by the end of the week).

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    What are you – 8 inches high at most… Easy for you to be short.

  • Keirsten

    Chart of LQD- corp trash

    http://tinyurl.com/yec2bf9

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Just reflecting about that day one year ago, sighhhhhhhh 🙂

  • Bart7

    interesting, thanks for the update….

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    1052 close, my guess

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Just my HO but looks like we might close around 1062 SPX ( grrrrrrrrrrrr)

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    POMO day today though alpha, and quarterly opex tomorrow.

    Might sell off, might not though.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I prefer yours Alpha…:)

  • Carl V

    This is probably the most interesting chart: 3 fan lines within 3 fan lines ! Nobody can say when the last fan line will be broken…can be within weeks or…today…but when it will be broken I think this will be devastating…and looking at the chart we are so close from this 1040 level of SPX….20 points this is really nothing. This is what helps me to hang on on my put and bearish ETFs. Thanks for forwarding this chart.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    OK i change my mind 1053.50

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I'd still take that happily…

    Skål!

  • insite

    i'm kind of new to the whole (admittedly FREAKY) fibonacci relationship deal. i get the fib price retrace/extension concept & the fib time concept, but i'm not sure i understand the fib fan concept. what's the deal with the fans?

  • gmak

    You have a ho who gives you market tips?

  • EDC

    delete dupe.

    EDIT: not a dupe – seeing divergences on the $tick in relation to spx, IM-WAG-O we should close below 1064.

    yawwwnn..

  • dollar

    The POMO was kind of small though, wasn't it?

  • wooooo

    lol, nice. where can i go about finding one of these for myself anna?

  • Tronacate

    Gawd I wish AIG would just die…..I hate that fucking company

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn
  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    hahaha I hope Alpha is right. I just put on
    IWM 60/57 Bear put spred November for .90 reward up to 2.10 🙂

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    Yes, fits the day really.

  • Bart7

    triangle on the S&P 5? support at the trendline coming last Friday lows, retesting now….

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Fans I haven't worked with yet, but would like to Insite. 🙂

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I would take that as well Alpha…

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    sorry not my department, you'd have to ask Mole about that one.. I have a gigolo 🙂

  • gmak

    SPX is right at the VWAP and just bounced up off of it. VWAP is about 1062.70

  • bshah

    guys,
    if you remember Keirsten's post few days ago, she drew chart for DECK.. ( price was … any guess… $85.90 ).. It touched the same and back down… Does any one of you thinking of going short DECK ? I don't have software to do chart, but it must be interesting ( Star ) ..? may be… So, don't forget to jump in it..

  • fuw

    Yes, clearly an important level that is being watched. Would be nice with a second retest.

    closeup:
    http://www.screencast.com/t/Kvjj9EjpD4G

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Finally lunch since we are levitating 🙂

  • Tronacate

    Need a nice phat 200+ point drop…….just a sweet bear growl to remind these tards what can happen

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I'd rather give them no warning and completely rape them by surprise…

    Skål!

  • Trader_Steve

    You mean you hate this government? Oh wait…so do I (well most of it except for the military and law enforcement)..smoke em' if you got 'em.

    Steve

  • anthem

    1053.50 SPX would be great but hey, I'll take 1053.50 ES as well. . .

  • Tronacate

    Sounds like the way a married man has to operate…..lol…….good concept……..catch 'em napping

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    hourly count stands http://screencast.com/t/JR9t5GCXfFF
    (except for we might get today's closing bounce or tomorrow morning – they will not give up that easy)

  • PeterK80

    Carl, I am also still holding short. We did have one overthrow of the upper resistence (some have it drawn differently) but once the last fan line breaks down… the whole wedge will IMO. I think it will very be soon. If we end on a doji… tomorrow could be nasty.

  • fuw

    That clown is seriously creepy.

  • Tronacate

    I would love this government…….if it would strip the tentacles of GS/FED/insurance companies/lobbyists out of its anus

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Good luck with that….

    Skål!

  • Tronacate

    Yah……would have to be a French revolution style uprising…….wonder how Thain's head would look on a commode?

  • Tronacate

    Law enforcement?……you mean the highway tax collectors?

  • Vardoger

    /es 1-min is perfect channel intraday.

    I'd post a chart but since I installed Snow Leopard my app crashes every time I attach a chart to mail or browser. Has anyone else had similar issues and a fix before I call apple care?

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    LOL, no doubt. I guess it is about time for the “evil ben” and “evil hank” Halloween masks again isn't it…

    Skål!

  • raised_by_wolves

    Call me crazy for channels: I replicated your top trend line, left it intact for a moment, but ultimately couldn't control my urge to transform it into a 50% median line. You may notice that it's at a slightly different angle now after some tweaks. Thanks for the inspiration, mate!

    http://screencast.com/t/UqzxCfgGR

  • EDC

    which app?

  • Tronacate

    I want a Hank mask for the photo radar here in AZ……

  • Vardoger

    Hello Iran

  • gmak

    I don't think that will happen during the NorthAm day. I think we might up to that 1.46ish at the top of the downward 1 hour channel – and then come back down to test.

    It is a pivot line – and they all fall once enough holes have been put in them.

    ________________________________

  • Vardoger

    If I try to attach a chart into mail from the desktop, mail stops responding. Likewise with Firefox. It usually takes about three attempts to get it to work.

  • Tronacate
  • http://snpmonster.blogspot.com/ SnPMonster

    disqus really sucks, it interrupting with my trading programs..

  • Tronacate

    Interesting show on history channel……Islam…….it's Saudi Arabia that's exporting the radicalism with it's petrodollars.

  • raised_by_wolves

    The price action is at the limits of my purple channel. In other words, my upper purple channel line is acting as resistance. Will it hold or will it breakout?

    http://screencast.com/t/UqzxCfgGR

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    That would be fucking great…

    Skål!

  • fuw

    Not to be mean, but with that many lines thrown together in the same area one of them is bound to mark each and every turn of the market. The question if only which one of them, something only seen in hindsight. I also like setting up parallel channels with multiple lines, but that looks a bit excessive.

  • bergs

    Alpha
    I noticed your green [iv] overlaps your green [i] counting down to your blue a.

  • Tronacate

    Holy shit…..that was sweet

  • PeterK80

    Thanks for another prespective. I have seen this bear market wedge drawn so many ways… I spent a whole day trying to figure out exactly where it went on a 10 min time frame but gave up. Once it breaks I think we will know.

  • http://snpmonster.blogspot.com/ SnPMonster

    I see there is a possibility that SPY could launch from the bottom of the channel like it did yesterday.
    Watching the rails and some industrials that has pulled back.

  • gmak

    Could you be just a little bit more cryptic?

  • Tronacate

    A big box just decided it's time to take some prophet

  • rhae

    Markets are like the sand drawings, they continuously change and morph as fresh anchors occur throughout the day… Finally I get to draw a new picture… which still looks undecided, which should be no surprise… my daily chart currently showing a red doji…
    SPY 60m, I won't even guess http://screencast.com/t/dNv5yXvs

    note: the blue trendlines are automatic, I draw the yellow ones on the closes for DeMark

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    he is talking about T.K. – I wonder – why would “box” wants to “take him”

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    the Lord Voldemort of patterns is on the SPX

  • Bart7

    What's it mean?

  • raised_by_wolves

    I've de-cluttered my chart.

    http://screencast.com/t/B5o9whBuOjW

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    Launch just before the close and then a sharp reversal in the futures after the close…..

  • Carl V

    For what is worth and it helps not falling asleep: pattern speaking the SPX is forming a diamond reversal (5 – 15minutes chart). We now need one more slight up move for SPX then a break of this last pivot down will mean a reversal down, with as objective at least 1044 down…
    MACD divergence and trend seems to indicate this possibility.
    But failure would mean a strong move up…..
    http://screencast.com/t/GMgTbQiwQ8zo

  • goldpackers

    Short CMTL – finished a diagonal 5th wave that started at 26.40. Should retrace back to that point. Beautiful gap reversal last week

    SPG looks 5 waves down and in a volatile B or 2 wave

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Hey guys my take is we close around 1062, ( darn it) so I am off to do some much needed errands. the dogs/cats have no food, and can't have that. 🙂

    see you later 🙂

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    you have not seen “creepy” yet!

    YUMMY !!!

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    Is Lord Voldemort a bull or a bear though?

    Bad manners & no sense of restraint. I'm thinking he's a bull.

  • TheCrowe

    He who shall not be named… H&S, I'm guessing. ut oh.. i said it

  • gmak

    Neither. He is a GS minion or head.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    for the next 1hr and 15 mins. he's a bear

  • dollar

    H&S (serial reference fail Alpha)

  • Norw_chris

    Does the move up need to touch the top of the diamond to test?

  • dollar

    TK already announced same for Russell so that's a two fer

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    🙂

    Think you may well be right there.

  • C's & 3's

    Here's what I'm thinking is going on http://www.screencast.com/users/ed_ryan/folders

  • Carl V

    Chris: no, absolutely not, it is just that it would made the pattern more symmetric compared to the left side but it might as well break down now. The key for diamond is: volatility steadily increases (left side) to a paroxism then decreases as it is doing now (see the number of people more or less sleeping now 😉
    Then, a sudden break and everybody wakes up!

  • raised_by_wolves

    No offense taken. My presentation skills need improvement. The cyan lines were another perspective for Peter. I should have highlighted those. I should have taken the lavender lines off altogether and reduced the opacity of the blue and the purple lines. The blue and purple lines are the ones I'm actually using to make trade decisions.

  • Carl V

    To be complete about this diamond: it must not break the last pivot high at 106.53 otherwise it means: pattern failure and up up up

  • rhae

    good chart, looks like it has been working for you…..

  • http://snpmonster.blogspot.com/ SnPMonster

    somebody buying/selling vix oct calls 55/60, sounds kinda crazy.

  • rhae

    probably so, unless it drops right to critical at 105.90 on SPY

  • Norw_chris

    Thanks. I am trying to gain a bit of experience from watching different patterns people mention and seeing how they play out. I need a feel on some of these before I trade them. Thanks again.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    yea I am still lurking and now I am fairly convinced unless something really gives Rhae 🙂

  • Trader_Steve

    I think you just drew what I call a “mirror image.” Rather than a head in the middle it's usually a quick spike and reversal of a fair degree and then it tries to paint what came before it. Usually, the pattern reverses in just about the same time it took to form. That would mean a drop by the end of the day to around 104.75. But a high over 106.60ish rules it all out. I think we are going nowhere in particular.

    Steve

  • http://snpmonster.blogspot.com/ SnPMonster

    Maybe, of course the other scenario is a breakdown…lol

  • Trader_Steve

    Beatlejuice, Beatlejuice, Beatlejuice!

    Steve

  • dollar

    Absolute torpor

  • Tronacate

    I'm just sitting around holding my purple channel…….

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    i hope this triangle isn't wave iv and the move up isn't finished yet, but it clearly looks like the better count on the BKX

  • Tronacate

    Nice chart……thnx

  • dollar

    Hey who's in Hawaii?
    A large 7.9-magnitude earthquake off Samoa has resulted in a tsunami warning for much of the Pacific, and a tsunami watch for Hawaii, though no watch or warning for the Western U.S. or Canada.

  • AS2009

    Can you post the chart Alpha ? So more upside on BKX ?

  • Tronacate

    Isn't Survivor in Samoa right now…..that would make for a wild show….all wiped out in a Tsunami

  • Joe8888

    Not Sure about this one, something to watch,,,

    Possible inverse again…//? 10 min spy chart….watch the neckline…a close above first…

    http://www.screencast.com/users/chartwiz/folder

    watch for increase of volume ,if we close above neckline….!

  • BigIslandLife

    thanks for the warning at 1800 elevation hope it is not to big

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    i'm long FAZ but will tighten my stops, look as C3's chart below. The 60 mins SPX chart would argue against it. look at the histogram on a 60 min chart. very negative. so we'll have to wait and see.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • Nightwind

    I was in FAZ earlier…then bailed

  • Carl V

    If we have a couple of 5' candles down from now this is good not only because it would break down the diamond but also because it would create a “hook” pattern in the MACD as explained in EWI free book “Ultimate tech analysis book” or something: the MACD seems to reverse in one direction but just before the 2 lines cross it goes opposite => strong signal if you take time to backtest this. But not sure this pattern will resolve today. If not my bet is we have a gap down tomorrow open.
    http://screencast.com/t/mB3GapewKsX