Discretionary Trading
Now Reading
Mnuchin’s Falling Sword
157

Mnuchin’s Falling Sword

by The MoleJanuary 25, 2018

Earlier this morning Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin doubled down on well timed inflationary comments he made yesterday at Davos thus pushing the Dollar over our technical LT edge and tumbling even lower hence. This pretty much puts the death knell tp any remaining hopes for a Dollar bounce in the near future and puts the DXY on a trajectory toward 87.5 and most likely lower.

I hope you’re not planning any extended road trips this spring or summer because you will most certainly start feeling it at the pump as crude is already pushing > 66. And while you’re at it you may as well turn down the heat a little as natgas is breaching its 3.0 mark and may now embark on a good old fashioned short squeeze (who can afford pumping NG at three bucks??).

Whatever you do, don’t step underneath Mnuchin’s falling sword as everyone hates the Dollar now and buyers are few and far in between.Β By the way I’m raising my monthly Gold subscription rates to $1000 now, which most likely won’t be enough to pay for decent toilet paper over here in Europe by this summer. [yes I’m kidding – kind of…]

Not surprisingly our EUR/USD campaign is unfolding nicely and I just raised my trailing stop to the recent spike low which roughly equals 2R in paper profits. You may want to do the same.

The VIX however threw a little monkey wrench into our IV short squeeze aspirations. That little spike higher thus far isn’t bearish (for equities) yet but it was sufficient to kick us out of our ETP campaigns:

Fortunately we had already wisely advanced our stops to break/even. Now I didn’t look at my ratio charts but it looks like the VXX is once again trailing the VIX and this may be another short entry opportunity. However I don’t enjoy getting into these setups unless the VIX is at extended levels, so I’ll have to pass on this one.

Here’s the XIV stopping us out where we entered. If you’re an IV trader you may want to watch this one closely for another long entry opportunity.

New delicious setups just popped out of the oven – come and get them below the fold…

evil_separator

It's not too late - learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don't waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

BTC: 1MwMJifeBU3YziDoLLu8S54Vg4cbnJxvpL
BCH: qqxflhnr0jcfj4nejw75klmpcsfsp68exukcr0a29e
ETH: 0x9D0824b9553346df7EFB6B76DBAd1E2763bE6Ef1
LTC: LUuoD6sDWgbqSgnpo5hceYPnTD9MAvxi6c

  • Mary

    Bitcoin ETF GBTC will be splitting 91-1 tomorrow putting share prices within reach of traders with small accounts.

  • StockTalker

    -4 /YM

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    looks like the backside of silver, still.
    good to know!

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GBTC&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p78894982738
    -GG

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    GDX,
    looking for gap close, or at least pullback to support
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p27702436981

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    wait, this guy has a sword?
    I knew he had a hot wife
    πŸ˜‰

    https://saeedvaladbaygi.info/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/36776/1224stevemnuchin.jpg

  • HD

    $SPX C=A 2820

  • BobbyLow

    Good to know thanks. That’ll bring it down to the $18 – $19 per share range.

  • Tomcat

    “triple top” on the RSI?

  • BobbyLow

    OIH (Oil Services) still struggling a bit. I’m still short and will see what happens.

  • BobbyLow

    And they say “Money can’t buy you love”. πŸ™‚

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    that’s the thinking.
    if not, RSI 70+ “here we come”

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Tomcat

    I know you are looking short term, but with this record bullish sentiment, I think we are close to putting a top on Oil. Plus the trumpster “promised” lower gas prices, which he hopefully will deliver even though it contradicts his desire for weaker dollar. You cannot have the cake and eat it too, can you?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    XHB,
    I wonder if the cougar pounced? or at least took an entry short?

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XHB&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p88083273142

  • Yoda

    But it can buy you a “sword” πŸ˜‰

  • Yoda

    ES looking weak

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I was going to say that about High Yield..

  • BobbyLow

    You could be right. In the mean time, I’ll be watching prices. If we start making consistent new highs, I might have to jump on the long band wagon again. If we hang around where prices are now, I’ll wait for prices to begin falling and I’ll jump in short. The same thing with Gold.

    When I was a young lad my mother used to say “you can’t have your cake and eat it too”. That didn’t keep me from trying though.

    A lot cheaper dollar might bring on more than modest inflation and take away the cake. So I’d better keep working on my trading skills. πŸ™‚

  • Yoda

    I am buying VXX here and now. Those BB look tight and ready to expand and up volume is increasing.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cbc1f7247c2056736b329f1648f1bec1270dcfc928c73fcce5c04a6ecf0d9519.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    The the % thing will be like suddenly realizing there are garden snails all over the place.

  • Yoda

    that too

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    my lens says the ema40 is going to challenge you.
    but if ‘anything breaks loose’ in the short term, you will be in the catbird seat.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a9d2d72af4be5241b3a67a1303f38dbfc56bdd1b6bec48c71320472e70168e58.png

  • Tomcat

    To put things into perspective. If gasoline prices rise 20 cents per gallon –that’s an extra $32 a week –against the $45 a week saved in taxes. Give it with one hand and take with the other?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Its a fair place / time to do it with super tight stop.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’ve never had a garden or snails, just desert or grass.

    but I agree.
    +1

    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/XXVc7HXjRp8/maxresdefault.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    gives this man a cigar.
    smoke-n-mirrors son.

  • BobbyLow

    I’m seeing the same thing you are TC. But we need to be careful and not get too political here. I can get wound up like a top with this stuff. One thing that helps me maintain what’s left of my sanity is to keep trying to improve my game to give me the best shot of survival no matter what happens.

  • Yoda

    Yes

  • BobbyLow

    And that was that. I need horses that can run on either side of a trade. I just tried to short RIOT and no shares are available. There are Options available but I’m not prepared to buy any self abuse today. I’m retiring this horse before it ever gets out of the gate.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    There is some symmetry in oil near $71 off the $26 low.

  • Julie
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    how can it be overbought when RSI is 59?..

    nevermind, you mention weekly and then post a daily chart.
    geeez.

  • HD

    Hi Mary. Nice job with F. Finally getting the hit you were looking for.

  • Julie

    GG CCI and Stochs overbought weekly
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    GG BID D right at .786 XA Interesting
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I don’t speak blonde, it’s very challenging for me.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Julie

    GG Actually IMO the RSI is the most important indicator. Have you ever used RSI 3. At 84 and above look for a pullback next day or shortly after. At 16 just the reverse
    JULIE

  • Edgy

    Is it worth watching the ES compared to EUR/USD or USD/JPY for correlation?

  • BobbyLow

    You’re probably looking way back at the daily and $71 is possible. One thing about oil prices is that they can run way further in either direction than what logic or supply and demand of the end product dictates. In the meantime, If price breaks today’s high of $66.66 and holds for a few candles on my 30 Minute, I’ll probably go long again

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    CVX,
    not a recommendation to buy or sell.
    I said it was bubblicious, and I got lucky.

    big question now is, will the line hold for a bounce, or what?

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a743c3b7df4a3fe16dc1da9cdc4a2b655503413e4cbab5f4a2383eb2cefe9963.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    RSI 3? never. sounds crazy.

  • Mary

    I’m liking BA right here, bought a call debit spread about an hour ago..

  • Tomcat

    GG,

    What does your lens say about $NFLX
    http://schrts.co/61c7wG
    Time to short, or not yet?

  • Julie

    Mary BA a nice bounce off it’s daily 8 ema just like the consolidation end of December. Nice job !
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It’s worth watching the USD/JPY in correlation with gold. Not with equities however.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    a candle of that magnitude? (22%) something is afoot IMHO.
    best to wait for momentum to bleed out first.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NFLX&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p91640829403

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    For fuck’s sake – what makes you look at this chart and think going short??

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    cheaper puts.

    EDIT: short the weak, NOT the insanely short covered/strong.

  • Julie

    DMRC Down to it’s daily 233 ema and oversold. It is a buy above minor resistance approx. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/60dbcc7560f98c306901b48c2c12d7aa7a961798845d5e7a1e8513726849cccd.png 35.02 matching it’s daily 5 ema JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Julie

    $RUT The daily 8 – 21 and 34 ema’s very tough. Now a possible negative divergence developing CCI on daily chart JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ffb36c1875c60b2109c51fe33e83bac923d0a9f758eb9c4b82960e56080f928e.png

  • BobbyLow

    Just a friendly reminder that next Wednesday, Jan 31, is Fed Funds Rate Day.

  • Tomcat

    Ha, good one…

  • ridingwaves

    87.60 USD is point of no return….I see a bounce there or even close to here

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ouch….ouch….ouch…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    and a blue moon eclipse. we covered that.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Julie

    TRXC A bullish falling wedge consolidating between a moving average convergence 5 and 21 ema’s A https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5c5861ee5294a849493873c8d34ed3b1f139b1a8b0a4df0c0b796f1130f90f2f.png bullish close above solid resistance 2.05 and .. ! JULIE

  • Julie

    GG Early Time check approx. 2 hrs left Any thoughts !
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    And it’ll probably be the next Blue Moon before CD Rates are no longer insulting.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    we could hit that in a day or two..
    before Wed?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    30 years down, 30 years up.

    both of us may not be around by then.
    😯

  • Julie

    BL I read an amazing stat recently. GOLD and TNX rising in tandem has preceded every stock market crash and every major down turn
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    fade the noise, the hype, the bitcoin, whatever.

    have a plan, trade the PLAN.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u9Dg-g7t2l4

  • StockTalker

    Here we go

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    What? Where!

    don’t scare me like that!

  • Julie

    GG Always trade the plan
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    There goes the dollar

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    BL and I were talking about this yesterday.

    I wonder if ‘this is it’?

  • BobbyLow
  • Julie

    GG A beautiful little cougar kitten. Momma teaching no premature pounce i.e. cougaritis
    JULIE

  • Tomcat

    No joke, I must thank the Trumpster for [his comments] the quickest 2R I have ever made, and will most likely ever make, in Gold.

  • Julie

    EDIT Pounce not bounce
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I wouldn’t mind either. But I don’t want an arrow in my chest.
    har!

  • BobbyLow

    I don’t know but I just shorted Gold via DGLD. Getting close on Oil but need just a little more downside. . .

  • Julie

    GG GDX not only closing the gap Let’s see if it bounces off i https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/788f573511fab72e960230c420ca38ccc66ad8e700c77d61247208973f92e268.png t’s daily 5 ema JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    well, there this whole currency thing going on.
    bigger than the whole mining industry & commods.

    I’m feeling great right now, which usually follows by getting hammered. must watch charts carefully, and get small.

  • Julie

    GG Whoa Checkout my chart above. GDX up into the early September gap at 25. This could be interesting
    JULIE

  • HD

    Needs to clear Fibonacci pivot 28(34)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    that gap was filled.
    the ema 21 could be touched.

    which means golds fun is done.
    dollar is going to swing back now.
    see ratio chart:
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD%3AUUP&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p15796525037

  • Tomcat

    This is getting ridiculous now…3R+ but still the record of 2R in less than 5 mins, won’t be beaten. I am certain.

  • Tomcat

    Soros feeling butt-hurt badmouthing Trumpster…probably long Gold???

  • StockTalker

    Time for a correction finally:) Dollar rally now

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’m charging 2 & 20, starting tomorrow.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Tomcat

    Wrong, it is ALWAYS about money, power is too…

  • StockTalker

    Go Mfer!

  • BobbyLow

    I didn’t take Rocket Science in school so I just follow price instead. πŸ™‚

  • Tomcat

    It amazes me how many fools pay those fees…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, by words, actions and results he is a public enemy and a demonstrable ‘terrorist”.

  • Tomcat

    Wow, how did you arrive to that “result”? Did I miss something?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…there’s finally some credible chance of this.

  • Mary

    I wonder what happened to the guy that loaded the boat with TQQQ a few months back? How long did (or will) he hold?

  • ridingwaves

    definitely not a reach with the statement….that guy is bad for any citizen

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, His funding behind social disorder/matham events has a pretty long history.

  • ridingwaves

    close to here worked perfectly….

  • Mark Shinnick

    A True Believer and not without sound good reason. He just got a bit too angry or mean at times I think.

  • BobbyLow

    I’ve been really holding my tongue here. But it appears that at first look with some people, the Mercer Billionaire Family influence on social policy via Brietbart and the past Bannon thingy majingy is good and Billionaires like Soros and others on the other side are bad.

    Well ok then . . .

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    NquilHammer,
    I don’t want to know.

  • Mary

    He’s probably much happier today … unless he sold early …

  • ridingwaves

    the fuedal lords will always mess with the serfs no matter their political leanings..

  • BobbyLow

    He was influenced a lot by the movie “The Big Short”. I hope he got out. He got pretty beligerant when everybody here was trying to talk him into showing some restraint. I think he got banned.

  • Mark Shinnick

    I never got the data on just what his sell signal would actually be. He spoke as though the bull was young.

  • BobbyLow

    I agree with you there RW. πŸ™‚

  • BobbyLow

    Nah he just called a top period Mark because the markets had moved so far. We tried to give him the history of what happened to a lot of us here chasing Primary Three that was supposed to end it all back in 2011 or so but he refused to listen.

    Edit: OOPs I didn’t realize you were talking about the Norwegian.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Amazing.I completely missed that he called a top. A interesting fellow.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s my crew today?

  • ridingwaves

    we agree on a lot believe it or not, heading to your neck of woods Monday…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    worked them into a frenzy. 111 comments!

  • BobbyLow

    That was my bad Mark. He didn’t call a top and I didn’t realize you were talking about the Norwegian. And you are right in that he had a mean streak to which I’ll add that he was condesending. He couldn’t understand how any of us wasn’t trading like him.

  • ridingwaves

    he had 2-3 more years left in bull move
    I kinda of agreed with him and he still was an antagonist…

  • BobbyLow

    We can agree and find common ground on most things which is great. I saw your comment about heading into Raleigh. That’s about 100 Miles from me.

  • BobbyLow

    Fantastic Boss. πŸ™‚

  • Mark Shinnick

    Non comprehension is OK so long as we stay engaged in good faith seeking; we are all in this Earthboat of mental fuckery together.

  • Mary

    Just Ducky …

  • Mary

    Somebody’s buying those bonds.

  • BobbyLow

    That’s for sure Mark. We might not be able to see “eye to eye” on some things. But we face the same everyday challenges of the markets, and fight the same battles everyday while helping to maintain each other’s sanity through it all. πŸ™‚

  • ridingwaves

    Well Yoda, we should call up GS and see if they need some manipulators, we might be fairly good at this….
    ridingwaves Mod ridingwaves β€’ a day ago
    1370GC is more important….they could drive it there easily and then we have our which way mome
    Yoda Mod ridingwaves β€’ a day ago
    yeah that’s my target for closing the long GC trade

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’m not seeing it TLT 20 year down 1.66%

  • Mary

    /ZB up 0.6% today.

  • Yoda

    LLO! Let just say that we are getting better at reading the tape, thanks to our supreme evil overlord. πŸ˜‰

  • Edgy

    Two days of hard gyrations with practially “0% change” for the day. Feels like it wants to go down but the fight is too hard.

  • Yoda

    Very strong buying volume on UUP today
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6222882e9f16b55f0aeba2575b860a9f98d113b5f9e5409b4c6289e5c4e30c1b.png

    Did Trump called the bottom as Obama did in 2009? πŸ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    no 88?
    dam. that volume is pretty convincing.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Yoda

    Great. This is my preferred time of the year for trading.

  • Benson Burns

    Well that reversed quickly…

  • Yoda

    Well if it is not the low then we should at least see a decent corrective bounce. That’s the way I see it.
    Re. Gold, I wonder how much of a correction we may get. Seasonality is positive for gold right now, and a price dip at adequate support should be a buying opportunity in my view.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/627933ccc2b99e3f6f4946ed4b3e2d9396af0c873ca55ca63404aece395e850a.png

  • Richard Adler

    test

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    agreed. human nature is too look for the EXTREME, and most profitable. but that is not always the case.

    if price closes above the green line, ended the falling has.

  • Julie

    BAC Posted a target 32.25 which was the high today then pulling back closing lower than it’s open printing a black candle. Up into upper trend line of a channel and looking for a bearish close below it’s daily 5 ema Shown BAC daily chart JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dad111c64a4537db17305bfec35eee41ec5af8f13fffb100661f0866e154b543.png

  • Julie

    GG XHB 60 min chart looks impulsive down from it’s high of 47.20
    JULIE

  • Yoda

    I think tomorrow candle shape and volume should be indicative of where we’re heading in the medium term

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Friday = nowhere doji

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Friday = nowhere doji

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    go big or dont go at all.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    go big or dont go at all.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    go big or dont go at all.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    .need follow thru.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    if what happens in the left oval, happens in the right oval? https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/35793e251e854155c3613b800e847e49ea7b53118e3c5c5d4f9fecc325e48e86.png

    we will know.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    WTH?

    I know ETF’s are not the perfect mirror of the underlying, but really!?!

    a wise man once said: always chart off the Real Coke.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7ff7f371cb27ab604d58ce3d88dd5a84deb2b02ddd8e88a08bfe57442d40b606.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Now your fucking with my head.. think:) Are you seeing a lot of this in the usual suspects BTFD camp? It looks a great justification.

  • BobbyLow

    If you’re buying gold for a long term investment then you need the most accurate accounting/charting possible from the institution that you would be selling them back to for cash.

    If I’m trading Futures then I’ll use a Futures Chart. When trading everything else I used to think that charting the underlying was best for whatever I was “trading” however I don’t do this anymore. For short term swings of an ETF, I need to chart the actual ETF. If I was trading GLD then I will chart GLD and I don’t care what a chart on any other related thing says. I’m trading UGLD so I chart UGLD etc. For me this is the most accurate way to do this. A Chart is a visual and the visual should be for the vehicle that’s being traded otherwise what good is it? I do run /GC Charts for refference and can get a tip off from them on how my ETF might behave in the near “future”. However, Futures charts run around the clock and I can’t trade an ETF around the clock. ETF’s run primarily from 9:30 AM to 4 PM and my ETF charts are in sync with my rules in place during the hours that actual trades can be made. JMNSHO πŸ™‚

  • Yoda

    What the daily closure time of the gold contract?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    140 comments? It’s like in the old days!!

    NEW POST

  • ridingwaves

    that tax package seems to be another inflation creator….keep in eye out on rising wages….things are about to get real interesting per my lens on that front, a jump should be expected with the bonus announcements

    https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm

    https://www.bls.gov/news.release/eci.nr0.htm

  • ridingwaves

    that was when we were young and could dance to depeche mode all night

  • Yoda

    LLO! We should be about the same age

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    thank you sir! greatly appreciated.

  • Richard Adler

    Question from a newbie. Is zero Lt giving a sell signal here?