Now Reading
Mole MIA (again)
240

Mole MIA (again)

by The MoleJanuary 29, 2009

Good morning rats, just a quick reminder that I am going to be missing in action for the next few hours as I’m attending my naturalization oath ceremony this morning. I might be back before the close of the bell, but you know how it goes. I think the occasion calls for the appropriate Rammstein clip:

Disclaimer – the song is a bit cynical – just like me.

Anyway, this is an important day for me – it’s been a long time in the making. While I’m out please make sure the market doesn’t drop below 740 – I don’t think they’ll let me trade on my iPhone while taking the oath πŸ˜‰

See you on the other side – as a U.S. citizen!

BTW, starting I’m accepting tips on how to get out of jury duty…. (j/k)

UPDATE 9:33am EST: Another 20 point gap – I wish I was around today as this might turn into a nice island top. Well, I’m off – good luck steel rats!!!


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

BTC: 1MwMJifeBU3YziDoLLu8S54Vg4cbnJxvpL
BCH: qqxflhnr0jcfj4nejw75klmpcsfsp68exukcr0a29e
ETH: 0x9D0824b9553346df7EFB6B76DBAd1E2763bE6Ef1
LTC: LUuoD6sDWgbqSgnpo5hceYPnTD9MAvxi6c

  • Keirsten

    My fave Rammstein of them all. G/L and best wishes today Mole.

    S & P- I love your cultural injections every night.
    Alpha- that guy is an amazing artist. Love him to pieces.

    Time to get to work and trade this beast…….

  • Huggybear

    Congratulations, Mole! I’m also naturalized. Funny that only naturalized citizens have to take an oath to “protect and defend the constitution.” Many Americans I’m afraid have never read it. If they had, they’d realize how badly they’re getting screwed by our corrupt Government.

  • etechpartner

    Mole viel Glueck heute.
    It was a touching ceremony for me. Staples centers front row. With my wife and 4 month old daughter at the time. (She is now 14 !)

  • etechpartner

    Had an interesting night. Short 1 ES @855 plus 2 more @ 869. Out of the position @ 858 via a limit order over night. If we hit close to yesterdays HOD I will load up again.

  • alphahorn

    I'm reposting this that all the late rising rats may enjoy,

    Answering S&P's love song (which I did enjoy-i have enough Scotch/irish in me from my mom to appreciate it) with my favorite song going right now, once again from Trace Bundy whom I introduced yesterday, entitled “Love Song” – (AND don't just listen, watch my boy play this song, he's my idol) enjoy:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bG64vtwBKg

  • http://www.myspace.com/181419967 JZT_CHIL

    GlΓΌckwΓΌnsche!

    Congratulations, MOLE! “Welcome, fellow American!” (^_^)

    Did mine 12 years ago…

  • alphahorn

    have you made a call on this morning? i'm about 2:1 long but planning to see if we get a pull back and rally or a sell off, your thoughts

  • cabben

    Congratulations on becoming a citizen.
    I grew up on Ramstein AFB!

  • DrNo

    Welcome to America ,now if you could provide all your bank account numbers and all balances here and abroad and mail a check to the nearest penny to the treasury for taxes owed we can get on with your citizenship!

  • alphahorn

    so far going with TBT, FAZ, short STLD, long AKS, bought some SKF and SRS at the end of yesterday just in case and to hedge my BGU which I reduced a bit, likely to go long ANR and CLF again on pull backs, got stopped out of EGLE when DRYS blew up, but will play it again on pull back if market not tanking

  • Falcon

    Welcome back citizen. Now, where are your papers? LOL…Congrats to you!

  • mrktneutrl

    could be inside day today. s2 at 848 – higher high and higher low is bullish. We shall see

  • Keirsten

    Just going to stand aside and see how it rides in the first hour. Still waiting for my most actives to warm up over here. Woke up a little late. LOL Looking for gap fills and SLs on a handful and will scalp during the day. Stalking WDC and MT You're gonna make bank on that short right out of the shoot. πŸ˜‰ What else is on your radar?

  • Insect Overlord

    I'm tempted to go long /NQ because it has pulled back to, and is now hovering around, what I consider to be pretty decent price-driven support…

    http://screencast.com/t/osmfvXQY8

    The trend is your friend and stochastics are signaling oversold levels, however, the news seems to be very pessimistic regarding the bulls…one headline even said the bears have taken control again. I don't like mixed signals.

  • http://greedangerignorance.blogspot.com DJ

    BOT +1 /NQH9 @1217.00

  • molecool

    LOL – I thought about that but they already have me by my balls…

  • alphahorn

    just went long VMED nice inverted H&S

  • DrMalaka

    We have a Constitution?

  • rmultiples

    congrats on the citizenship.

  • Joe

    that Head N Shoulder i spoke about yesterday on 10 min SPY ,,, measures around 85.30 to 85.50 ish.

    Good Luck All

  • BalaB

    Staccato decline (yet again), appearing / disappearing Zero signal

  • http://www.aggressivelyuninformed.com nepharis

    As for avoiding jury duty… the two best methods I've heard are to either say that you unquestionably trust law enforcement officers (*tries not to vomit*), and would thus be unable to even consider conflicting testimonies — or that you are just a downright racist/bigot/hater.

    I managed to postpone my first summons by like a year thanks to school, and then they canceled it anyway. Score!

    But um, you know, I totally support doing your civic duty, and all that. Drill baby drill.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Good thing i sold those bac at 7.70 yesterday πŸ™‚ Don’t fall in love with the upside. Also still short UYG.

  • http://www.srsfinance.com SRSFinance

    Going long DUG. Oil is once again sitting right at the brink.

  • pristinetrader

    Good morning guys. A strong showing yesterday with volume finally picking up. With a few more trading days left in the month, the bias is up for now but stay nimble as anything can happen so keep your stops tight. Looking at the SPY, I am moving my stop up to 85.10. The 60 minute charts is still showing strength. The financials caught fire but expect a small pullback here followed by a resumption of the trend.
    http://pristinetrader.blogspot.com/

  • Vardoger

    Added to my SPY FEB 75's this morning. Looking for a pullback to the 820's if we are indeed building a megaphone. Did not like this rally although the bullish sentiment is/ was building. New homes data coming up and that GDP tomorrow should be ugly. Going back to sleep…. stop at break even .55

  • de3600

    dont answer unless it comes Certified Mail

  • Vardoger

    Biggest problem with rally– The financials are leaders, and the financials most definitely aren't leaders…

  • ZigZag

    XOM..There (hopefully) will be blood!

    Short! Short, XOM Eli, you boy. Drain it dry. I'm so sorry. Here, if you own XOM, and I short XOM, and I have a straw. There it is, that's a straw, you see? Watch it. And my straw reaches across the room and starts to drink your XOM, I drink your XOM! I drink it up!

    http://tinyurl.com/ahgw3m

    XOM could be a good short…I'm holding a very small position through earnings.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I have a feeling Erikd is finishing up his last cigarette and is ready to open the door to the basement lol

  • ZigZag

    BTW, Oscar is very proud of you πŸ™‚

  • Vardoger

    New home sales missed. The analysts have been terrible. I have no reason to believe that GDP number will meet estimates.

  • GMunni

    Mole, don't screw up the oath. The last guy that screwed up the oath – well they made him president so be careful.

    Good call on the island top. Note my chart here http://tinyurl.com/dz8nqc . This is now my primary count.

  • DZZ

    Looks like a pump day for Gold!
    j/k…. Ignore the notice >:)

  • Joe

    The VIX daily chart,a nice close above that bottoming tail could mean a nice little drop is coming here..something to watch

  • BigEgg

    Re: Jury Duty.

    I find the best way to get out of jury duty is to simply state, “I'd be a great juror, I can tell who's guilty just by looking!”

  • alphahorn

    so far this has been an expected pullback but not a sell off, the gap from yesterday and the 50 day MA is providing support at the moment for most of the indices,

    here's a look at the QQQQs, until it breaks – caution

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • MayDaze

    Congratulations, Mole!

    On jury duty, in many states it is tied to the voter registration records – why do you think so many Americans don't vote? πŸ˜‰

  • alphahorn

    I'm getting close to reversing my short bias and going long with some of my favorites

  • best4now

    Mole,

    Now that you will be citizen evil, you have my vote!

  • Erikd

    not yet… i will watch XLF 9.50 area today if it holds i will actually add back 1/2 my original investment at this level and stay long…..

  • standard_and_poor

    I would to say that as of this morning the risk reward ratio continues to be much more favorable for bears than for bulls. Better then last night when I shorted XLF. Here's a short term
    wave count for SPX, so far I'm glad I didn't submit to bullish inclinations. I will be adding to shorts.
    http://www.screencast.com/t/YmFrLKuy6

  • cnbs08

    I agree with you. I would say that the bulls are in for some major pain next week. Maybe there's one last retest of yesterday's highs today or tomorrow but no breakout imo. Just short any strength for the rest of the week and reap the rewards next week and through opex.

  • El gAto

    ACL appears to be getting it footing. With 50 DMA as defined risk, the entry is tight enough. Fast stochastic is beginning to lead the slow, but not quite there.

  • Joe

    looks to be a bearish 10 min SPY…..Timberr…?

  • standard_and_poor

    See my last night's post for more charts,and oh yes, Good Morning fellow rats..

  • alphahorn

    Truthfully, the market hasn't made up its mind yet, look at the DJIA, it's sitting on its 50% retracement, if it falls, then we give up all of yesterday; but it hasn't broken yet, and it has those nice little MAs for support as well! Patience today is key.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • alphahorn

    I couldn't take it any more, I just went long ANR at 18, which bounced nicely off its 50% retracement, will be adding others

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • Daniel_LaRuso

    Congrats on your citizenship Mole. The US is lucky to have you as you're one of it's finest.

  • Guardian

    I remeber an old joke something like:

    this man is called for jury duty and asks the judge to let him off and the
    judge says “so you are one of those people who think the office cannot function
    without them”. The man replay “no sir, I know they can function without me,
    I just don't want them to find out.” πŸ™‚

  • Keirsten

    Agreed. Not a smack down this morning at all. Long GS and TNA for a quickie. Looks like more chop chop based on the clock.

  • Joe

    This is the 5th 10 min Candle from the pivot low…i am expecting a drop on the 7 th candle..something to watch for.

  • Guardian

    even better, “I belive in original sin, and that means that every one is guilty, just not cought yet.”

  • Keirsten

    Check out JBLU and ALK.

  • Keirsten

    Look at the TL building under those candles though. I think they at least fill the AM gap. Beyond that, who knows.

  • alphahorn

    Back in EGLE HUGE at 5.80 with stop @5.6

  • DZZ

    One more pump and then shorting Gold!

  • Yux

    Yeah see why. thx.

    I'm waiting to drop out of HGU (Toronto) – but a bit confused on gold at the moment. Comments appreciated.

  • alphahorn

    back in SWKS very large, inverted H&S and the pullback stayed above the neckline:

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • Keirsten

    Stopped out on GS. It's looking sickly compared to the rest of the financials. Will wait to trade in the afternoon.

  • hindawg

    Hi S&P, wave 1 and 4 can’t overlap. I prefer waves to either fail or breach TL to show completion. Hope that helps.

  • Joe

    7th 10 min candle candle up from the low. is red as expecting…will it give us more .down side.!

  • alphahorn

    nice post about short GS at 92 from someone last night, I'm hoping it gets there so i can play it, also covered my short in STLD

  • cnbs08

    This little push up is a good shorting opportunity right here imo……indices and XLF.

  • Joe8888

    Channel breakout on the 10 min VIX….now doing a , bullish backtest of channel….and 20 ma .10 min..Hmm. is this a start of something >>?

  • Zhang_Ke

    Congrats on the citizenship! We're going to need all the help we can get to pay all this crap back! IOUSA!

  • hindawg

    “DRYS to <$10 and maybe back to $3 ” from last Thursday. I moved my stop today. Kinda feel lucky on this one. Anybody trading the drybulks?

  • standard_and_poor

    +1 mate.

  • http://investingadventures.com Jorge

    I've had more excitement watching paint dry today…

  • standard_and_poor

    That's a good one.

  • cnbs08

    Based on the chart I’m looking at, BAC could be heading down into the mid to low $2’s. I would get heavily short today……

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Says who?

  • malusDiaz

    If you ask questions, and want to write down what goes on during the trial, you'll get kicked for not being objective.

    And that's why you settle out of court.

  • DrMalaka

    I have some Feb 12.5 and 10 puts on it. Not sure what to do at this point. Any advice?

  • Joe8888

    that 7th 10 min candle up did Halt the up trend —short term–

  • http://alphahorntrading.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    Yeah, I wrote about patience, then lost all of mine. May get stopped out of my long bets, but hey i’m to type A to do nothing all day, still carrying my SRS, SKF, FAZ and added SDS

  • Joe8888

    Looks to me . like we may hit the— 20 ma -( on the 10 min SPY FIRST) Then a selloff…

  • alphahorn

    waiting to see if it breaks below 8.70 shorting it would be a nice hedge to my long EGLE which got hit for drys crimes

  • E

    Congrats, Mole!

    Also, as a lurker who hasn't contributed anything yet, let me just say this site is (a) awesome and (b) appreciated. Hope to contribute more as I learn.

  • alphahorn

    see my comment just above, if it gets through 8.7 i'd hold them

  • T.B. Aurelius

    I oblige…..
    Gratitude…Messiah…

  • T.B. Aurelius

    I like your charts, put'em up…

  • Sid

    I suspect you're right today. I've been loading up on OTM puts since yday. Target below 700 in 2 weeks.

  • http://jadedapprentice.com JadedApprentice

    You would or you will? Personally, I hope you try the short now – we need more shorting action in the financials if we're going to drive higher in the near term.

  • Keirsten

    Here's something for any new traders to test out. Great way to learn to practice on price action, without all the noise.

    http://www.inspectd.com/index.php

  • alphahorn

    too late? might scalp a short, were you in before the moves?

  • BalaB

    : )

    That's really cool

  • Jason Campbell

    Hi Mole!

    You speak German?

  • Whazzo

    S&P is headed to break 900…shorts will get killed into first week of Feb. Sold my puts on the Qs, PHM and TOL after new home sales numbers out for a nice profit. Now long the Qs for an upcoming 5% move to

  • cnbs08

    I will……and thanks for the kind words jaded……mole would be proud of your kind contribution……

  • cnbs08

    Since you like them so much…..be my guest, put them up for me……..

  • ZigZag

    I think were doing something like this…I hope πŸ™‚

    http://tinyurl.com/ccsrj2

  • molecool

    That comment is making me feel all warm and fuzzy inside.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    I would not be so rude as to….
    But I do like your charts….as I said before many times…

  • alphahorn

    just added BGZ, it's starting to look sick

  • Joe

    Hitting 20 ma 60 min SPY ( east coast time . regular hours data) and H&S top target hit here

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Zero just woke up.It 's flashing a sell πŸ™‚ Lets see if it sticks

  • Anonymous

    guess that green option is still in affect

  • Teito

    I am still in SDS… got in when ES was 870….

    “come to papa”

  • TroyMcClureRIP

    Congrats Mole. We need more entrepreneurial and creative additions to our roles such as yourself.

  • de3600

    I am just curious as to why you think this do you see something you could share with the group

  • standard_and_poor

    Just added more xlf shorts, all additions are intended for long term, looking for lower 700's on spx.

  • standard_and_poor

    Just checked, great site ,it's fun.

  • SRSFinance

    Alphahorn, it looks like the QQQQ is struggling to hold the gap. The SPY is already inside the gap. I don't daytrade and admit that I'm not the best at reading intraday moves but this seems to nullify your earlier assessment does it not?

  • cnbs08

    TOS is the best isn’t it? No wonder our good old pal works for them…… πŸ˜‰

  • poopsquad

    how are you guys trading the zero here ? this market has not been able to hold a signal, several short ETA’s have come and gone. But if you look at the old version, we already an ETA, and VTA stick. Wondering if this vol adjustment has neutered the zero a little too much.

    Anyway, so far I am inclined to view this as a healthy sell-off and backtest of 850. Should we break that level convincingly or see financials really collapse here, I would change my tune and think the Green scenario is in play.

  • Keirsten

    Watching SPX/GS/SKF. All seem to be holding the line at their pivots currently. If GS breaks S1, next stop 80.93. Below 83.39 and it's a broken trend.

  • Randy Harris

    Congrats Mole!

    Getting out of jury duty is easy, you just throw away the jury duty notice when you get it in the mail. As long as it comes regular mail they can never prove you got it. Now if they send it registered or similar the you’re screwed – but they never do, always enough rats who reply.

  • alphahorn

    back in WFT with DXO moving up

  • cnbs08

    Currently listening to that same oldie but goodie……I’m sure some of you know it………it helps me in my trading……

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aD21JDMp86c

    Knock knock……who’s there?

    SEC………..SEC??????

  • http://alphahorntrading.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    staying relatively neutral, broad bearish etfs with selective longs

  • Keirsten

    Yes, and it's very humbling. LOL

  • Teito

    I wonder now days why it has become very choppy to trade. Is it because everyone including the bots uses same indicators and tools (ie RSI, MACD, Fibonacci, etc)?

    Seems one day we get overbought then the next day we get oversold if you use hour charts.

    By the way a blog I follow put a interesting stat. According to his research gaps usually get filled within 2-5 days. So if his research is correct we could soon close it. That is why I bought SDS yesterdday…. I play the probability game πŸ™‚

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Well i shorted MS at 21.55. Looks like some short of H/S happening the last couple of days

  • alphahorn

    TBT is sweet

  • Joe

    Watch that 20 ma ..on the 10 min spy chart..we may tag it at one point soon ,,and selll off..

  • rhae

    AMZN was on the evil list and did not participate in yesterdays party, good basing action in 60m… a good laggard play today and so far a nice fader… Can it hold up under the market strain? maybe.

  • alphahorn

    the last 1/2 hour today should be interesting!

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    Congrats Mole!!! My heritage comes from Germany (Black Dutch…whatever that is), England, Ireland, and good old Native American (Cherokee). My wife is half Choctaw. Wow my kids are really confused!!! πŸ˜‰

    Welcome to jury duty. I have a somewhat different view of jury duty. I want to serve anytime I can because I might get called to put someone like Madoff in jail for a LOOOOONNNGGG time. To me jury duty (however inconvenient) is a privilege I will never squander.

    Liking the short side a lot today. Maybe the NDX will fill that gap at 1200 today or tomorrow.

  • JustinB

    Mole, as someone who has moved from state to state several times – I've found out the hard way Jury Duty is picked often based on voter registration. It's a double edged sword Mate.

  • Keirsten

    $USD managing to hold it at the 20 DMA.

  • Vardoger

    Hi Keirsten. I am watching XOM as well, it closed a one hour bar outside of the rising wedge and is now trapped between it and the fib at 77.34. The GDP is sandbagged for tomorrow and the VIX is about to come against resistance from the falling trendline that it has touched 4x. I am on tilt and likely to cover my shorts by EOD. Are you a bull or a bear here and if so what are some of your favorite plays??

  • alphahorn

    Sold half of my BGZ for a nice little scalp

  • Zhang_Ke

    Ha ha! That too shall soon come to pass!

    Appreciate all your work. I'm learning a lot from your site. Thanks.

  • Vardoger

    There is a bill in DC about banning the naked shorts on CDS. Anyone short or long the XLF or MS, GS be careful.

  • Keirsten

    As of right now I'm neutral and hedged Var. I'd rather stay flush than lose a push or risk a slide. Consider me Switzerland. πŸ™‚ The afternoon might give us more clues.

  • http://www.cafes.net poisonfrog

    Many states have self employmed exceptions.

  • alphahorn

    Dow just broke through its support we may be heading to a sell off here

  • Vardoger

    Same as me then, I am holding my shorts for the moment but will pull the trigger at any time. I think we'll get some direction tomorrow morning via GDP and XOM. Honestly though, this market sucks. All next week we are likely to be keyed on DC. The stimulus plan is looking more and more like a bailout plan for the states which is bearish, while we could likely get some policy changes that could be really bullish. Me sad, me just wanna make money and this market is muy dangeroso. Maybe we can break out of the channel today. That would be nice, thanks for the response

  • dandy1

    Getting out of jury duty is easy. When they start interviewing you for jury selection tell the prosecuting attorney that you understand your rights to jury nullification. Watch him turn pale and piss his pants. You'll be dismissed shortly there after. Reality is that a juror has the right to overturn the law. That your obligation is to assess the merits of the law as well as the merits of the case. Many decades ago the supreme court decided that judges do not have to inform you of your rights. Since then they instituted an oath for jurors that says you must assess only the merits of the case …. they do not acknowledge your right to assess the law. Bottom line is, they may not tell you your rights but you still have the right, the oath is meaningless. In a government governed by the people, you absolutely do have the right to assess the law and if you disagree with, over ride it.

  • alphahorn

    just shorted AAPL again, see if I can make back what I lost on it yesterday, bought my BGZ back too

  • DrMalaka

    Alpha, grabbed some of these with you, 63.7 what is your idea, you letting the rest ride?

  • DrMalaka

    Zero just gave us a VTA and ETA back to back

  • geckoman

    Heads up VTA on Zero.

  • DrMalaka

    I believe I once read that our Founding Fathers thought about this in the creation of the system as a way to have the public keep more power away from the government. I guess it only applies to OJ though.

  • Insect Overlord

    Just went long /NQ at 1198.50

    http://screencast.com/t/dMTmlm2TqO1

  • DZZ

    gold pumping

  • ablebonus

    I hate second guessing the zero, but aren’t we just closing the gap up from yesterday.

  • Teito

    I think resistance and support levels are more important than the RL levels that 2sweetie is selling… it is working for me…

  • DrMalaka

    Eur/Yen cross is down 2.5 today, signals risk aversion, this thing is moving a year's worth in half a day.

  • alphahorn

    just shorted HIG, ZERO lost its orange though

  • hindawg

    right on pivot. gap filled. now we go up?

  • Stretch

    which has happened every time I buy on a signal so far.

  • Chrys

    If today's low holds we could still be in wave 2 from the 805 level. Yesterday A wave completed and today and possibly tomorrow B wave and then next week we explode to the upside in C wave before plunging down in wave 3.

  • Joe8888

    this market is putting in one bearish pattern after another (using 10 min SPY)I have support here, but should this break,,, man lookout

  • MaxPainMan

    anyone take the short signal on the Zero?

  • MaxPainMan

    are you a follower of “AlphaTrends”?

  • slartybardfast

    Absolutely!

  • Teito

    I know him…. i used to follow him. You like him?

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Possible ES H/S playing out. If we zig zag around the 830’s it could look like this

    http://screencast.com/t/nvEmbIry7FC

  • Teito

    i have 842.75 in ES as support (my support and not 2sweetie). I will sell sds there and purchase SSO

  • Susannah

    Hmmm, nice to know, maybe it’s better not to be dismissed and actually use your rights, though, sometimes.

    I served on a jury once with my husband. I tried to get out of it by telling the judge we were husband and wife, I didn’t know if that would be a conflict or anything. He said nope, you two should be used to arguing, that’s fine! LOL. What are the chances, we get called the same day and end up on the same dang jury. 3 days for a DWI case, the defending attorney thought he was on law and order or something, even tried to call the prosecuting attorney as an “expert witness.” Judge nixed that.

    Next time I got called I got out of it because I was *very* pregnant. They believed me when I said I could go into labor at any time.

  • Joe

    another 10 min bearflag here on SPY..

  • http://alphahorntrading.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    Is this a bear trap???? Keep an eye on the QQQQs (2960) and the DJIA (8175) both have bounced off critical levels from yesterday morning. Be careful

  • Erikd

    $SPX will close today 848-850 what is your forcastinator say?

  • Teito

    For $SPXI have support at 846.68
    For ES I have 842.75

  • poopsquad

    I like being long TLT, short TBT…or buying Mar or Jun puts on TBT here. Treasuries now very oversold in a bull market. Supply weighing the market today. Deflation story is not gone. 10’s are 2.78 here, I see 2.82 as strong resistance from the lower break in yields last year.

  • Joe

    848 – 854 are key numbers to me,,, now the P/Call is still under 1….Amazingly everyone is looking
    at this level, as a great opportunity ….( witch should be viewed as bearish on the markets ) now i have a Pivot in time on Feb ,5th 2009,,, now do we fall in to that pivot and rally from there, or rally now ( with in a few days )and fall hard on that date..!

  • TexEx

    Welcome, fellow citizen.

  • Joe

    200 ma on the 10 min coming up @ 84.50 ish , now we should bounce off of that .. for a scalp..

  • Teito

    agree….

  • Erikd

    so what number do we close at on the $SPX at 4p.m.?

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
  • Teito

    only God knows that man…. I just play probabilities…. we bounce from the levels I stated above

  • alphahorn

    either 861 or 840 not sure which one yet, but leaning toward 861

  • DrMalaka

    Sorry to be a little slow but he sees this dropping, correct?

  • alphahorn

    splain that one to me Ricky, i disagree in a big way

  • nyse

    I like it

  • Teito

    842.75 in ES was hit… sold SDS (from ES 870).

    bought SSO

  • Erikd

    he wants to build out the basement…

  • alphahorn

    Zero went orange again

  • Erikd

    take a guess… it will not cost anything

  • alphahorn

    forget the 861 we're heading way south

  • DrMalaka

    Well if he is building a basement can he dig it about three floors deep please? Thanks.

  • El gAto

    FSYS……I am looking to add to my tracking position on a move over 27.4. A close over this area could provide a strong pivot point

  • Keirsten

    Might be the XOM factor, it's not looking pretty.

  • molecool

    I'm stuck in line to get a passport. Can't believe I'm missing a day like this $&@(“!

  • Teito

    my indicator might have called the low right in the money

  • Lori

    so are you a citizen yet? are you, huh, are you?

  • poopsquad

    do you trade bonds for a living ? or do you hate treasuries because you are worried about hyperinflation and read Barrons and see CNBC jabbering about a treas bubble ? We are in a deflationary envrionment, IE, 90's Japan. All asset prices are deflating, the government is focused on low borrowing rates, nobody wants to take counterparty risk , and needs a place to stash money. Capital draining from the system is far outweighing all the money being thrown at it. Unless you think we are at the turn and stocks have bottomed and growth is coming soon, the fundamentals and technicals still support low yields. We rallied from 3.80 on 10yr notes to 2.05 in a straight line, this is a healthy retrace into heavy supply. We'll talk in 3 months.

  • MaxPainMan

    865

  • Erikd

    backhoe is scheduled to arrive next week to start the digging as long as we close below $SPX friday below 890

  • MaxPainMan

    I used to listen to his daily stuff regularly… until I found evilspeculator….
    I jump over there every now and then…

  • Anonymous

    You’re already up about $40K. Oh wait… what do the red numbers mean…?

  • RedArrow

    No problem, we hacked your account and traded for you. All in long from 870 on triple leveraged ETFs right?

  • HungryNewt

    rofl

  • Keirsten

    Interesting that the CMF has remained above zero right through this sell-off on SPY.

  • poopsquad

    Erik – you carrying a short here or waiting for confirm on that close. ?

  • standard_and_poor

    Good to know, thanks fellow rat.

  • Vardoger

    At what point do you rule out the blue scenario?

  • Bob

    Congratulations! Good for you!

  • Vardoger

    VIX right up against the trendine, if it breaks it hard I'm going more aggressively short and will spread. Big move tomorrow

  • cnbs08

    Ten year yield is trying to convince you that it's going higher and equities falling at the same time? Somebody's lying but which side is it……..and where is the money going into if it's coming out of bonds?

    Commodities…….like gold maybe…….so many illusions are being pushed right now……….there's gonna be a massive move one way or the other once all of these shenanigans play themselves out……

    And last time I checked, we were still in a bear market……right?

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    Going long here… I dont think 850 gets taken out in 1 attempt… Looking for a bounce here… I see the decline today just as a gap-filling measure.

  • Keirsten

    Yep, still an ugly big bad bear market. So many mixed signals going on today it's nuts.

  • nyse

    Hyperinflation is not a risk until the velocity of money starts picking up. People will be amazed at how long this treasury bubble will last (or rather, the extent to which the Fed will work to keep those rates low, low, low, low, low). You are smart.

  • standard_and_poor

    LOL, you're a riot mate.

  • Anonymous

    i would not go long. im thinking we may see some selling to the close. although we are at support it looks like the volatility is about to explode. check out my post here and let me know what you think. its my site so feel free to leave a comment or email me!

    http://www.gotoguy.com/?p=774

    ca

  • cnbs08

    Agreed but given that premise, one would have to expect things to resolve to the downside……at least imho.

    Don’t be fooled by the ten year yield………..it’s about to come crashing back down as people rush back to safety again, crushing gold, equities, everything!

  • RedArrow

    You're soooo getting it if it's wrong. I tried to stop you but you overpowered me and I'm telling.

  • standard_and_poor

    Been in same predicament before, I’m thinking of getting a mini laptop comp. versus an ipod any suggestions out there?

  • geckoman

    Yields can rise and stocks fall. I think it's what will happen. Not inflationary either.

  • nyse

    Nice post, thanks.

  • mikeri

    Rats: LZR. Yea, I know it's been slow. OBV is near the float. Put it on your watch list. If we break 9, hop on. In the mid 7s for what seems like an eternity. My many trades has me up the cost of 1 beer. Make mine an Eichoff. If it goes, hop on hard. With the float bought, all it would take is 1 hedgie to takte this to the moon. Have fun y'all.

  • Keirsten

    Check this out. I don’t know how I missed it earlier:

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKBNG30731720090129

  • http://jadedapprentice.com JadedApprentice

    Don't forget to include settlement latency in your calculation – you'll see treasury yields spike a day or two before cash actually hits the streets. Not everyone relies on margin to hide the settlement delay. Given today's pricing action and coming cash inflows, expect to see another gap up soon coupled with a short squeeze hitting those who doubled down short on today's gap filling action. When the zero finally swings up, the action could get explosive – especially since so many new stocks are heading into golden crosses. The bear market will return soon enough, but this is as close to a perfect bear trap as I've seen in a while.

  • cnbs08

    Here's a repost from tuesday that I think says it all….

    Looks like they're sowing the seeds for another disappointment next week………and a good reason for a real legitimate selloff when nothing lives up to the optimistic expectations they're trying to forcefeed down our throats. Just the possibility of the bad bank bs plan and additional stimulus package is supposed to keep the majority from getting overly bearish ahead of the actual letdown. Then they'll have to find a scapegoat to blame for it and give him/her/them a nice media lashing, while mainstream america watches helplessly as more wealth gets destroyed…….again………lol.

    We'll probably get some sizable short covering ahead of the weekend while the hopeful bulltards are busy buying ahead of a possible miracle solution………both scenarios are trying to steer you away from the correct trade. You wanna feel like you're swimming against the current prior to a new breakout……if you don't, you'll probably get reamed once it occurs. They don't make it easy to get positioned on the correct side of the trade……….esp at such a critical consolidation zone.

  • cnbs08

    Yeah nice post. I see the same thing even if you wanna remove yesterday's bad bar way down in the low 33's. The huge VIX tail whether it came from a bad tick or not was not coincidence. It was intentional imo…….to add some uncertainty bc that's how they play…….

  • WiredPirate

    Wigi says 865.

    Hey Eric, can you throw a guy a bone on what makes 890 so critical for week/month end. I am not looking to get spoon fed completely but want to learn for you guys and gals that have so much confidence in your pivots. Other than being the 62% retrace of the 943-804 move can you give me a little nudge at what else I might give consideration to? I can't find anything else in the trend lines or price levels that shines a flasing light on 890.

    Thanks.

  • geckoman

    True unless those buyers of treas get the feeling that the debt can never be repayed so they start requesting a higher yield?

  • http://investingadventures.com Jorge

    Wha? Just go to CVS, pay $10 to take a picture, grab your birth certificate, head to the Post Office, pay $100 bucks, and you're set!

  • El gAto

    Nibbled at some PCLN…….looking for a move over 70 to confirm upward momo….stop under 5 day low

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Jamie Tryrrell at Option Monster is reporting a big player buying 70k of the 60 calls across the board yesterday. That's every month out to May. This is a big bet that spx will fall.

  • cnbs08

    Yeah anything's possible but I think the bond guys are all licking their chops right now as they're taking their positions and waiting for the next huge windfall to fall into their laps……jm “humble” o

  • El gAto

    AMZN looks like its winding up here to launch……..alot negativity here. This could spill over into higher beta momo names.

  • gotoguy

    thanks for the comments. take a look at this site, its pretty good from what ive seen

    http://tradewithpros.com/

  • Anonymous

    Hey congratulations on your new citizenship. I’m a green carder, 11 years now and probably still another 11 years away from citizenship. Does your passport fit the old joke.. if you look like the photo, you’re too sick to travel.. πŸ™‚

  • molecool

    I'm BACK!! AND ALREADY UP TO NO GOOD!

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Speak for yourself – I’m gorgeous πŸ™‚

  • molecool

    Promotion of pay sites is not permitted. Comment deleted.

    Shssseeeeesh – when the cat is out of the house the mice are dancing on the table….

  • Vardoger

    Sold half of my short position. Anyone have any good longs that are set up if we rally tomorrow? I have been watching V and UNG but I my conviction is questionable.

  • alphahorn

    makes sense, took the uncertainty (when) out of the equation, leaving just the certainty

  • Z_Bob

    Just wanted to say Congratulations on your citizenship!!! You now know more about American History than 99% of the natural born citizens.

  • RedArrow

    Financials have been pretty strong today, off the morning lows even when we hit bottom this afternoon. They might rally pretty strongly if we get a bounce. You can also check here to see how each sector is performing. http://finviz.com/map.ashx?t=sec

  • Erikd

    i am long and will stay that way as long as $SPX closes above 848 today and XLF holds 9.50 area today…

  • WiredPirate

    Welcome to the voter pool Mole. Maybe your vote is the one we need to get things headed in the right direction. Not only do you know more about our country than 99% of it’s citizens you probably have a greater appreciation of it’s blessings and the opportunities it offers to all.

    Congratulations!

  • Erikd

    pull up a chart on the $SPX on a monthly time frame and pull up a chart on a weekly time frame..
    study these charts and utilize trendlines.. within these two charts there is a pattern that is repeating itself since the dropoff started late last year… this will get you closer to the trail

  • Joe

    200 ma 10 min here ,, do we bounce now…/

  • Joe

    84 on SPY is 50% retrace and 50 ma on the 60 min

  • hindawg

    Nice! a long covering rally 8-> I was expecting the opposite. So no one is interested in covering. What does that say?

  • jacksoo

    Isn't now mandatory that you put on 40lbs and never actually use your passport…;-)

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    NEW POST

  • Loren1711

    I've actually had a rough time trading the zero all week. I definitely like the idea second version of the vol adjusted zero, and initially liked the new version, but am now having second thoughts.

    From what I've noticed, the vol adjusted zero triggers a signal later in the move. The intraday moves lately have been incredibly short lived and volatile and as a result, signals are triggered toward the end of the moves. Honestly, so far, I really like the Zero 3.0 with a mental time delay.

    Hopefully some back testing will show which is actually better. In the meantime, both indicators running across the bottom I think would be nice.

  • Joe

    nice close on the VIX daily above the Hammer….Hmm

  • MaxPainMan

    gratz

  • http://spnakr007.blogspot.com/ Steve

    haha, I was thinking leaving the same comment right after you left to be naturalized.

  • WiredPirate

    Greatly appreciate the reply. I am working at it but still no ah ha moment. When you say late last year I am assuming you mean late '08 and not late'07?

    Below is my long term monthly chart I have been working off and it worked well to both get me long around 750 and then short again around 950 but it yield a wider range than what you are talking about.

    Any more clues to the treasure map would be greatly appreciated by this pirate.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=M&st=19

  • Erikd
  • WiredPirate

    Thanks Erik,
    Your generosity is on par wih Moles and I don't take it for granted. I have not had time to dig into this today so now I have a weekend project. I must say I am intrigued becasue this type of relationship is not something I generally pay attention to so I see a real opportunity to add to my toolbox here. I'll let you know what I find out…hopefully I've got the necessary IQ points to solve the riddle.

    Have a great weekend!

  • C.C. Rider

    How are u sweet face! Do u like the supplements?