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Monday Momo
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Monday Momo

by The MoleOctober 29, 2018

Daylight saving time ended yesterday over here in Europe and it may actually have been the last time. Back in August the European Council declared the practice antiquated and recommended that member states stop changing their clocks in spring and autumn. However at the same time they left it up to the respective EU state and I’m pretty sure that, true to form as always, Spain is going to make a royal mess of it.

For me personally this does have a small impact on my daily routine as I would have one hour less each morning to prepare my daily posts. Which for me of course happens in the early afternoon just before heading out to the gym. It’s a daily routine that I have enjoyed quite a bit since I moved over here as I’m a late riser and love to work into the late evenings.

So if the U.S. sticks with DST and Spain abandons it next spring then I will have to post one hour earlier each day. Not a big deal and truth be told we are already considering moving back to the U.S. sometime in 2019. It’s not going to be California however for various reasons, most of them economic and some related to retaining our sanity.

Alright let’s talk equities plus I have an updated momo update for you guys.  I actually got quite lucky over the past few hours as my ‘reload’ mark was almost touched which as you remember would have been the point where I had accumulated additional short exposure.

Fortunately the tape turned a few ticks before reaching it and then proceeded to snap higher, in the end stopping me out at the 1R profit mark. Yes, nothing to really write home about but as I keep telling you guys, trading the fast and quick on the way down isn’t as glorious, and usually less profitable, as it’s made out to be. You roll with the swings as well possible but reversal spikes are usually fast and violent.

Long term we are still in the middle of nowhere. Those moving averages on my chart have little meaning as they haven’t been touched for ages. And the silly lines I’m drawing are mere possibilities with a very low chance of having any veracity. We simply need to see price start breaking the series of lower highs and lower lows that it has kept on painting over the past week.

I think you will find this updated realized volatility chart interesting. As you can see the predicted bounces did happen but all failed at the SMA-14 that I’ve added to this chart. If you remember I am using this one for swing trading signals in more civilized market periods, but over the past week they have all been reversed within a matter of hours.

Okay, so let’s do some market momo. The IVTS shows us a failure last week which is not a very common occurrence. And as noted on my chart failed BTFD signals on this chart show us that this is probably not just a ‘regularly scheduled’ correction. Early dip buyers were completely steamrolled after what turned out to be nothing but a courtesy bounce.

More momo goodies are waiting below the fold:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    GUTEN MORGEN!

  • bankwalker

    I heard that you were getting a little behind in your work.

    Don’t let the wife find out!

  • Ladywandering

    Thanks for the post, helps sort things out.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    She keeps me on a short leash!

  • BKXtoZERO

    Long TVIX 51.59… plying my craft today………….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    SPX 15min..

    well Yoda, finally got that X-wing out of the swamp water.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/658581b7e6de3b234c44f59a34e5616cafa7483ef87070b7ddaee1a9efc91302.png

  • HD

    30+ handle hit from TL…..

    2670 is an interesting price. See if buyers show interest.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Out of TVIX 54.22 for + 2.63 (Bank Walker is inspiring)

  • HD

    We could get a few days of eom window lickers but if you followed the sentiment of that wave it was BTFD all the way down and finally sell the hole, lows. VIX >15 almost all month.

  • HD

    DST. There’s an old proverb. Only the white man would cut off the top of his sleeping bag, sew it to the bottom, and think he has a longer sleeping bag.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    Apparently zero interest. -2.25

  • BKXtoZERO

    BTW… sold that VMIN earlier for small gain… not sure I trust that thing

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m 1/32 oklahoman native.
    so no native cracks. I’ll be triggered.

  • HD

    TSLA showing a nice TL this month too.

  • bankwalker

    short /RTY @ 1493.40

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EXAS out of remaining long position this a.m. (very small profit) EXAS failing at 21 ema Watching USO long carefully. Not long SPX yet ! Needs the 30 min candle closing above it’s 30 min 65 ema and upper down trend line per charts on last thread Again turned down at 30 min 65 ema this a.m JULIE

  • HD

    Ok second try. 2718 if it holds.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ..looks like $Gaso bottomed Friday, but no interest to the upside.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GASO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p05358840481

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thanks GG
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG F Up into it’s weekly 21 ema and daily 89 ema Wow ! Looks like an impulse up.F could even go up to 9.91
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    I reloaded tvix while es hit my 2682 target…. I was driving to work futzing w phone on the side of the road lol….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    use a fibfan. 9.91 isn’t a cake walk.
    9.70 will put up a fight.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG … F Spike high 4 cents above weekly 21 ema
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    4 cents on a sub $2 stock, may be significant *cough*

    on a $9 stock? don’t make me laugh. it’s hurts!

  • bankwalker

    short /YM @ 24714

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi BW SPX cash the 30 min 65 ema or 60 min 34 ema I knew it BW per previous charts. Targets 2618 and 2606 still on the table
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    I was on the frigin highway…. Don’t they know that I commute at that time? No respect.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    just think of it.
    The Market’s open what? 23 hours?
    We shmucks get six and half hours to trade…and minus two for commuting.
    IMHO, that’s a battle all by itself.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG 9.75 is upper cloud boundary on daily chart
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Watching crude for a long at next low possibly

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s everyone today?

  • bankwalker

    Excellent Mole.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Great Chief Thanks always for the Post and forum
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    How about 2580 eventuality?
    would that blow your mind?

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/753c089b6aec25dd3bb1d0b38fcc4e5004e1a7986d16305f2b051ea28cea7e85.png

    I will be a buyer at that level, if it isn’t overnight – @$@#$#$%

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    USO https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9eae6a9d77c01dbb2013fb749fd7953471ea19dc92db8fee59b84ccebd2d8c49.png Needs a bullish close above it’s 5 ema @ 14.30 and resistance I have a long and watching carefully JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • bankwalker

    short /ES @ 2660.75

    short /NQ @ 6780.50

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BW Great short … SPX 30 min chart A corrective 3 waves up from 2628 (Friday) and again failing at the 30 min 65 ema (red) and white upper down trend line from October 18 JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/133a87832b8a433cf9bc558cac33dee1d68938446f9e7102651128928695f0c7.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    if your long anticipation fails, flip it.
    Short target 13.50’ish.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bc0b8fd1d2f33c2c626644c192f3849906322cdbd9c6414bc31465d5aff6dc73.png

    make sure all prices fit into an envelope, otherwise it can come back and BITE.

  • bankwalker

    Thank you Julie.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Kicking ass and taking names Sir! The Ayatollah is Back!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Si ! Will do GG I have 13.45 target if it fails here Close to your 13.50
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    How are you? Rested? Ready?

  • BKXtoZERO

    See Andres letter last night?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    No I did not BK Will look it up Thanks BK
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I have a meeting after lunch Darn !
    JULIE

  • bankwalker

    I thought you were going to hire a helper.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BW … GG lives too far away ! Lol !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Geez, I help out enough already!
    😉

    I type 90wpm.

  • bankwalker

    She needs you to attend her meetings for her so she can trade.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • bankwalker

    NDX looks even stinkier.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Out TVIX 56.8 for + 3.5. Two hits for me today…. Not in a season….. In a single game..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    tech leading to the downside? Ooooooo. not good.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    thanks for translating. the blonde wasn’t coming thru clearly.
    {/sarc}

  • BKXtoZERO
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    CHIEF — Check your Pay Pal Thanks For Everything Chief !
    JULIE

  • HD

    New lows. Outside day. DJI SPX NAZ. This effr just got complex.

  • DaVerg

    CA was great in 70s and 80s, now it is full of homeless people, drugs, crime, refugees all over the place, Hep A is out of control, in LA they had another version of black plague on the streets, clown Brown is governor and he’s only sane one left. They tried to pass “universal health care” but they couldn’t figure out a way to pay for it last year. Illegals voting is running rampant. Yes over three million illegals. Anyone watching the Dodgers games on TV would just look into crowd when they panned the stands. Out of control. Used to be a good state, now it’s in toilet.

  • HD

    But the VIX!?!?!

  • HD

    It’s worth $89 imo. Lagging badly or I’d say higher.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • kudra

    last one out, turn the lights off

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    “Keep Hope Alive” bud.

  • HD

    At this pace SPX will be at zero by EOY

  • HD

    Right wing racist propaganda during a market crash? Go away

  • HD

    Hits have been 100 ish. Time to pay attention.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    oh ye of little faith.

  • HD

    !!!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I should have put more emphasis on extreme a few days ago.
    Extreme
    [BPSPX]
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPSPX&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p34748923671

  • HD

    I honestly can’t comprehend Mole being gone this whole month. As a trader. Hope your well amigo.

  • bankwalker

    exit /RTY @ 1476.40 + 17.00

    exit /YM @ 24369 + 345

    exit /ES @ 2632.00 + 28.75

    exit /NQ @ 6691.75 + 88.75

  • HD

    + 34 out.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I HAD to go to lunch with my boss who is leaving for the final hour and I left some tvix on the table…. Oooh well

  • 1coin3lives

    Last minute dip buying anyone?

  • BKXtoZERO

    BKX to zero

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX 60 min hammer candle at 2603 …. My lower posted target 2606 Everyone Have A Great Rest Of Day
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m here. Put together a comprehensive post for you guys. Doesn’t mean I have to serve up drama when there’s nothing else to be said or entries to be had.

  • HD

    Ok thx. 100 handle day and nothing triggered anything you look at?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Not the way I, the Mole, trade. But it may be different for you. FWIW – I was short but got stopped out at my trail. That’s what happens and I’m fine with it as I’m not as bearishly obsessed as most people. I used to be but 2008 taught me a life lesson. And guess what – I’m still here a decade later. Where’s everyone else except for a few exceptions that still hang out here?

  • bankwalker

    long /YM @ 24493

  • HD

    I’ll stop asking questions…

  • bankwalker

    long /ES @ 2671.75

    long /NQ @ 6790.25

    long /RTY @ 1499.70

  • BKXtoZERO

    Long CL around 65.64 via UWT 31.26, 1R

  • BKXtoZERO

    I noticed during previous corrections that you are not big on shorting even though you served up some pretty good road maps. I get your preference and could learn from it myself.

  • BKXtoZERO
  • BKXtoZERO

    Long TQQQ 46.72

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD
  • BKXtoZERO

    lol… nature charts

  • randomuser6789

    Who knew EW could be so beautiful?!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    the shot was likely taken in late July on a muggy 60% day with a storm a brewing.

    without water, you’ll be dead in two days. 😉

  • Wave_surfer

    That is an artistic and creative way to communicate a lot!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys – I didn’t have a minute for trading or posting today as I had to put together an info page for all those new VIXEN subs that signed up last week:

    Vixen info page: https://evilspeculator.com/vixen/

    It’s a ton of info and graphs, and it also points to all the pertinent resources that are made available, e.g. the position sizing calculator, a tutorial on how to sort your Gmail alerts, how to set up free SMS alerts (very cool actually), and all that good stuff.

    I also set up a client facing version of the live P&L stats over at Google spreadsheets:

    https://tinyurl.com/vixen-results

    Not much there yet but that ought to change quickly once the market and thus IV normalizes somewhat.

    Anyway, I’ll be back in force again tomorrow.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    AWESOME. Over here it’s gray, cold, and rainy. I’m trying to decide between rope or bathtub.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    hey, if you can make it work…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Yoda

    If you squint long enough at the picture, you may see Gerb’s lair too
    😉

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yoda …. Clouds or smoke signals from the Gerb ? LOL !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Buying SLV Bounce off lower cloud boundary ; support and uptrend line JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0331d0c46509b62ef11554ff5f440ba629e54f046c894e87abbcc08378b86d2b.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Long labu, pretty tight.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Aiming to reshort miners…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Not long yet even tho bounced off 2603 within 3 pts of 2606 target. Still long USO from last week USO four inside days with today a gap lower which has been bought
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Maybe its like he was on travel…his timing on those things has been interesting.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Bought by me (he he he he) 2 minutes before blast off…………..

  • BKXtoZERO

    I almost entered DUST yesterday…. wanted a little lower, didn’t get it, holding small position but wanted to add

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    $SOX may be in the dumps (AMD 50% OFF, everything must go!)

    but shorting INTC? good luck.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=INTC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p2863840832c

  • Yoda

    He is actually a cloud, looking towards the right side of the pic… 😉
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9dde786ec921fad29933e1f0644b1100eb10f96e69799fe1659ce9ee3553e987.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Good one BK !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    it was that tail?….wasn’t it!?

    confirmation bias – it’s a bitch.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/73c12e0896282052ff34022d0e830a5e92131e1fe7941685c4393c21399ac2ee.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I like to short on the downhill channels.
    not the Teddy Roosevelt uphill charges. (RSI 50+)
    😉

  • TomW4

    Hi Julie,

    Is 2606 your absolute lowest target or do you see any possibility of going lower?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Tom …. 2606 is strong support but can go lower Must have a positive close above it’s daily 5 ema then 2700.66 If these parameters are met then targets 2771 and 2813
    JULIE

  • TomW4

    Thanks Julie!

  • bankwalker

    exit /RTY @ 1498.10 -1.60

    exit /YM @ 24573 +80

    exit /ES @ 2656.25 -15.50

    exit /NQ @ 6651.50 -38.75

  • BKXtoZERO

    This rally sucks so far…. WHERE IS THE BEEF!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6_eWWfNB54

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK …. The Beef … https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c30e28cb2cb4f94760bdd08dbc3bc5d849e35a5174df03a7cfc3869c876d92c1.png In the beautiful “Big Sky” Montana ! LOL ! JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Bear market, I suppose.

  • HD

    Putting too much emphasis on historical seasonal data and statistics is just another form of cognitive bias. Numbers can easily tell only a half truth. A simple Measurement error puts you in a vacuum with expectations of a highly likely outcome. Very dangerous. The markets in the 90’s and specifically before 2009 were very different. I could show you the stats but that would just be my own information bias.
    October opened at 2928. All time highs. The probability of it kicking off a seasonality trade were quite low. It’s a different measure than just what past Oct’s have done. The low is 2603. 300+ 12% down. The biggest Oct hit in 9 years but there have been 3 other negative Oct’s in this bull market. 4/9 now.

    You want to pull that trigger next time?

  • bankwalker

    short /YM @ 24525

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BW Giving SPX some time i.e. consolidation trading range intraday charts between approx 2646 — 2672
    JULIE

  • bankwalker

    yes Ma’am …

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BW LOL !
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Stopped out of TQQQ flat… Crude hanging in there

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK USO 13.82 support 14.00 resistance USO hanging in there. Giving it some time
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    that’s a different kind of ‘frozen meat aisle’.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG I believe Bonnie and Clyde met there Waterloo in Texas. Pretty Boy Floyd in Montana
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG The Plummer Gang were hung in Bozeman. Downtown Bozeman !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • bankwalker

    short /NQ @ 6719.00

  • Yoda

    Today kind of looks like a weak bulls shak

  • Yoda

    Assuming of course that es 2603 is the low

  • BKXtoZERO

    That would be me so they were effective.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Yoda

    Lol. A VWAP positive breach would be a good start for the bulls case. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b7177efbb5f7eb6cf6598aa3d07e48e5f3749f5de1cc8c732128058571927cd8.png

  • Yoda

    I wouldn’t trade this market without it.

  • randomuser6789

    Let us also not forget context. Tomorrow is last trading day of the month. Typically this is where you find some window dressing. Not is important as the close of the quarter, but it still matters.

  • Yoda

    Really and truly it is hard to find an edge in the bears’ side at this moment.

  • Mark Shinnick

    rebot labu, tight

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I think it was at his cabin. Didn’t even do a good job of it!

    “On January 10, 1864, a mob armed with revolvers, rifles and shotguns surrounded the ailing Plummer’s cabin and lured him from his sickbed by threatening to lynch a robbery suspect in custody. Unarmed, Plummer stepped outside and argued for the suspect’s right to a trial, but vigilantes surrounded him and marched him to the pine gallows up the gulch. They provided no drop, but instead bound his hands, slipped a noose over his head, and gradually hoisted him. In all probability, the peace officer who slowly strangled to death on that moonless winter night led no outlaw band, but instead had intentions of stemming the rise of vigilantism in Montana Territory.”

  • Mark Shinnick

    raising stop

  • bankwalker

    exit /YM @ 24774 -249

    exit /NQ @ 6799.75 -80.75

  • BKXtoZERO

    Can’t win em all….

  • bankwalker

    I lose in this kind of market …

  • BKXtoZERO

    usually me too… knowing this we should adjust accordingly

  • HD

    Big development in the EW into the close. 0-B

  • Mark Shinnick

    Is that like a reset?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Time check. close up yer books.
    Judge is coming.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    no chart?, come on, I can’t live on desert pics.
    😉

  • BKXtoZERO

    Actually went long in the boring part of 401K SP500 at 1X which is all I can do there….. Talk about a weak handed long…. someone in China sneezed and before they could reach for a hanky I sold my TQQQ. See how we do here…… Trades here are closing basis only, so if wrong I am stuck. I always wonder what kind of end of day signal to try for this type of trade, down=not good… up strong at end of day=you missed it, so this mild green push looks to be best ideal for EOD entry trades

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Long SPX at close. Also long USO and SLV Guys watch SPX at 2700
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    INTC, strong finish. 5%

  • HD

    I’ve been pounding the table all month on this one set up. You’re either in or not.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Boooooooo

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BW The sun sets only to rise again !
    JULIE

  • Yoda
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Earlier this year, SnP was running around a 49/50 day cycle.
    (not magic, many people trade off the 20/50/100/200 day’s)

    I would say tentatively, today was some kind of bottom. My odds are way better than Gartman, LOL.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c2ced83ea0e74dc0dd167ddbc9897622d8185d1bb9af1ddd2fbac42c0866205e.png
    I look forward to MOle’s outlook Wednesday.
    -GG

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    🙂
    “you want to be right? or do you want to make coin?”

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • mSquare

    Would be nice to be both!

    Specifically, I am selling calls against my INTC long at $48 – unless it goes above that, it is just a bounce to sell into (and people buying safer Semi as they puke out high flyers up big)

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I think a breach of 2700 drives us higher.

  • BKXtoZERO

    We are 2 out of 3 together Julie. Great minds go to the Indian buffet

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    2700 is what I have too Chief i.e. posted below
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    You taught me to hate them……..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    You learn well padawan.
    😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    NEW POST!