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Happy Halloween!
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Happy Halloween!

by The MoleOctober 31, 2018

Our favorite holiday of the year is upon us and judging by the price action in both the Dollar and equities it’s going to be wicked! As I indicated yesterday in the comment section, ES 2700 is our bearish/bullish inflection point and as I’m typing this we’re right on top of it. No time to lose!

So let’s get this out of the way before we move on. Long entry in the E-Mini futures right now with a stop < 2646. Which IMO is a bit aggressive but if this dog doesn’t get out of the gate now then we’re talking another leg lower or at least one more attempt to scare the children which may drag out until next week. This is a nice early lottery ticket that may pay off well if proven right.

UVOL:DVOL was positive yesterday – actually a lot more than you would glean from watching the price action. So a possible harbinger of slow accumulation…

The volume profile shows us that we probably scraped the bottom of the barrel near 2600 – at least for now. Again, just looking at those daily candles I cannot rule out another swat lower, but this is a possible low probability high payoff entry opportunity and it’s my patriotic duty as an NRA card carrying no shits given American to pull the trigger here.

Realized volatility, which I hope I won’t have to explain again. It’s giving me a possible long signal as the yellow exhaustion candle (RV based) is now being breached. The idea here is that we may see acceleration higher while RV actually starts to drop – that is usually what we want to see ahead of a slow and ordered short squeeze. And that’s better than a fast snap higher as RV remains high.

The SPX:VIX ratio hasn’t started to point higher just yet but at least it’s not pointing lower anymore. This basically answers HD’s musings as to why I haven’t been frantically involved over the past week or two. My dear ladies and leeches, you should know by now that I choose my victims very carefully before I finally line ’em up at dawn. Cigar or blindfold?

Just when you thought I couldn’t dazzle you any further with useless charts – I just pulled another one out of my you-know-what. Now seriously speaking, this chart is important as I’m drawing correlations between the two big corrections this year.

The first one pretty much shit its load quickly, rolled over, smoked a cigarette and then left. The current one in terms of measured fear (i.e. VIX and its components VIN and VIF) has been more mild but seems to drag on longer (see the squares I drew). And in my mind that is a lot more dangerous as it usually leads to more ugliness on a medium term basis.

So we’ll have to see but unless we drop like a rock today odds have it that the bears are done for now. And if I’m proven wrong then this Halloween will most likely be remembered for a long time to come. Evil Speculator wins either way.

Let’s talk Dollars, people – which reminds me, make sure to sign up right here and send me some. I can’t subsist just on caffeine and hate after all šŸ˜‰

Anyway, nice channel higher here and I was proven right that we are looking at a break-out trend situation here.

Draghi actually may be happy about a cheap Euro but Merkel says ‘oh nein – nicht gut’ and does her frumpy thing again. The long term chart shows us a target near the 100 mark as there’s nothing but air above us now. That’s right you heard it here first… I really hope I see the EUR/USD go below par before I head back stateside.

Speaking of which – IMNSHO a breach of 1.13 draws us lower and possibly back inside that old channel. Without doubt we’re going to see a little bounce there and then we’ll see if the greenback has what it takes to stomp it lower once and for all.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • maxcherry
  • 1coin3lives

    Long /ES at 2712, but maybe not for long…

  • HD
  • M E

    Anyone grabbing a lottery ticket short?

  • bankwalker

    you first

  • HD

    good spot to try imo! 2725ish

  • Mark Shinnick

    This seems like a decent upper range zone for the time being. Wouldn’t be unusual for a range scene to develop here for a while.

  • 1coin3lives

    … and out at 2720 because I’m just that twitchy today. I think I have to learn some patience.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    What’s that saying? “If you can’t beat’em, join’em”
    It’s the Sedona Bell Rock pattern ..clearly!

    plenty of room for rebound IMHO.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/eba839f567656f65becdcf59bfd8ab95e85bb87448a323226b0f1dee27c97082.png

  • maxcherry

    maybe it’s different this year, the spx has not made a yearly low during the midterm year past oct

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5227876aed4a85a991b08be214d3e304df1900c609ad075f7902da61961ac1cf.png

  • HD

    I’m closing out my personal best month.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-WWsPHZL5IU

  • HD

    sorry that was a few points early

  • HD

    Mole, thx for the honorable mention but just to consider- your VIX VIN stuff made the hit look less volatile because a lot of it came intraday. Some days even closed flat. There were 9- 100 point waves vs the Feb hit which all happened in a 4-5 day timeframe. I agree it’s a good hit to correlate though. Both were exactly 340 points.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I don’t know what a Laplaza distribution is, but I’m all ears if someone knows about it.
    šŸ˜‰

    “Everyone agrees the normal distribution isn’t a great statistical model for stock market returns, but no generally accepted alternative has emerged. A bottom-up simulation points to the Laplace distribution as a much better choice.”

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/3959933-predicting-stock-market-returns-lose-normal-switch-laplace

  • maxcherry

    anything that has a history of being over 70% accurate i’ll use, until it stops working

  • bankwalker

    short /ES @ 2715.00

  • BKXtoZERO

    Nice! I broke out to new highs past February…. pretty happy myself….. Heading to Ruchis for lunch…. gonna live high off the hog today

  • HD

    They gave 2 chances at 2725. -17.

  • bankwalker

    short /RTY @ 1517.60

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    The trap is set…. high, little correction down… awaiting ignition. Torch the tvix buying morons! he he he he

  • BKXtoZERO

    Long TVIX 49.9 (just in case) he he he what a moron.

  • HD

    Iā€™m pulling for you. A ton of buyers are long from over 2700. May need to test their resolve.

  • mSquare

    2016 election and result was indeed unexpected by the wast majority and the politics that followed!

    So a high probability that this mid term election is different and more so SPX moves after that…

  • BKXtoZERO

    stopped out 0.50 ding….. Mess with the bull? and YOU GET THE HORN

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Yes ! They gaped it above 2700 SLV Previously posted a 13.41 target …. In the red approx 1.5% going to hold USO holding 13.82 support
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi GG I be here !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    getting frosty up in Montana?
    gonna hit the 40’s here overnight.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Not to bad GG 37 degrees right now and cloudy Going to freeze tonight.No accumulation of snow yet which we usually have by Halloween. Next week supposed to get cold with snow forecast
    JULIE

  • HD

    There was also a 5% crash in the globex from that election that did not show in cash. Possible again also.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX There should be a pullback shortly for those who are not long yet ….Overbought 60 min and 10 min charts appears to be impulsive off the 2603 low Bulls don’t freak out as it should go up to approx targets 2771 or 2808 – 2813
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SLV Yesterday I bought at the lower red dotted trend line and lower cloud boundary. Looks like a trading range developing I had a 13.41 target also If it breaks significantly below the trading range I will lick my wound . Down approx 1.5% JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0f953d4a516b8aaeb26239c71d8c6593a39cceae0c42a4f39d6d1e5aab9425e6.png

  • Yoda

    I can’t deal with the pain in PM any longer, not with DX aiming for 100. I’m out. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/883fb9f98a41dc161d2a0c40c468b131fdba50961f5cb7a291e383a067c24b64.jpg

  • TomW4

    Thanks for sharing your thoughts Julie.

    How much of a pullback are you expecting?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yo – how’s my crew? šŸ™‚

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Didn’t you catch my gold related musings last week? Tsk tsk tsk…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    NICE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Tom a 38% retracement testing the lower gap window approx 2685 OR 2670 the lower cloud boundary 60 min chart matching the 50% retracement
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You’re banking on a blue wave?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Great Chief ! Thanks for everything Chief ! Don’t space out your Pay Pal
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yoda I am not running away SLV …. Holding the Fort !
    JULIE

  • TomW4

    What do you think of my targets on the upside before experiencing a pullback?

    I’m thinking this is a Wave A from the 2603 low Monday.

    W1: 2603.00-2673.00 = 70
    W2: 2673.00-2640.77 = 32.23 (46% of W1)
    W3: 2640.77-2728.99 = 88.22 (126% of W1 and gap fits W3)
    W4: 2728.99-2708.92 = 20.07 (22.67% of W3)

    W5 targets: 61.8% of W1 = 2752.18
    100% of W1 = 2778.92

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Rules, are rules.
    A frog’s got to know his limitations.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p02510864142

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Yoda

    yeah

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Tom we agree on everything but wave 5 IMO wave 5 is near completion as it has retraced approx 38.2% of the total decline from 9/21 Nice job Tom
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Having fun Sir! Stopped out of CL from yesterday flat. Long stocks from yesterday’s close. Quick tight tvix shot today as a hedge.. Lost .50 cents. In great shape. Indian buffet today

  • BKXtoZERO

    In dust…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Say what about PayPal?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    USO a closing stop 13.82 If at the close below I am out with a small loss. If wrong not wrong long
    JULIE

  • mSquare

    Actually (and unfortunately) contrary to that or even the consensus view of Blue house and Red Senate!

    If so, then bad for the common man in the US but likely a rally for SPX and down all others, especially China/EM

    Will likely not trade on the view – just step away. I learnt my lesson from being on the side of the pollsters past few times including Brexit!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I sent you a donation ?
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Oh did you now? $1000 again?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Seriously tho – I don’t see it. Where did you send it to?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief An account marked evilspeculator .com that I have. Hmmm I had to change account numbers so I will check to see what is going on
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief You should have it as it’s been deducted from my checking account
    JULIE

  • Yoda

    As per the volume-price ES chart above, a hole is found at 2741-42, which could be a target to park the tape there, or a reversal towards 2700

  • bankwalker

    short /YM @ 25212

    hard to take it, but a signal is a signal …

  • maxcherry
  • bankwalker

    short /NQ @ 6999.50

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    2713? disappointing.

    Have a Happy Halloween rats!

    https://philly.thedrinknation.com/images/articles/2012-10-29-pumpkin-keg.jpg

  • TomW4

    Wow Julie. You rock!!! I wanted your local top to happen and it seems like it’s retracing now. Great job!!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    USO Gonna hold Did not sell at close Yes it closed 2 cents below 13.82 support at 13.80 Positive divergences intraday charts Not gonna run Testing the high volume low on 10/23 on much less volume. High volume lows and highs are usually retested. 13.54 is another support and the expected rebound to a lower high will be a money maker Patience !
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yeah, sorry hon – I have not gotten anything from you. So wherever it went, I don’t have it.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hmmm ! Chief I will try to see what has happened
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Darkthirty

    That has all the qualifications of a 4th…………………….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    CHIEF The screw up is on your end The transaction on my end has been completed You must call either number
    (1) 1 – 402 – 935 – 2050
    OR
    003531436911
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    I flatted… Very risk averse lately. If i can’t get in and up I rarely hold much

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Ah – I just found it in my PP account. And the numbers are going UP! Thanks for the donation, Julie šŸ™‚

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Julie – I found the payment, all good and much obliged. Honestly why don’t you just grab yourself a cheap Gold sub instead? It’s about the same $$ on average as you donate and you get access to my private content which you would really enjoy. Just saying… but it’s up to you and anything is appreciated.

  • HD
  • bankwalker

    exit /ES @ 2715.00 +0.50

    exit /NQ @ 6983.75 +15.75

    exit /YM @ 25134 +78

    exit /RTY @ 1516.00 +1.60