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Monday Morning Briefing

Monday Morning Briefing

by The MoleOctober 7, 2013

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

The short term panel does not offer us anything of value this morning and I would like to re-emphasize the overall situation so that you don’t get lured into getting chopped to pieces. Technically speaking we are in a bonafide downtrend – I have highlighted a clear series of lower spike highs and spike lows. Until that changes we should expect that 100-day SMA to be tested. However, I don’t sense any real momentum behind this correction and as it stands the bears have but zero mojo in this game (and probably few dogs in the fight). Emotion (i.e. fear) has driven us lower over the past  two weeks but given what’s at stake – meaning a potential U.S. bond default – we have held up surprisingly well.

It would be a mistake to make lofty directional predictions here as the event risk is obviously huge. And that in a way is the point – we have little technical context and anything could happen anytime. Does this sound like a recipe for success to you? I didn’t think so. Let’s just stay away until we see a more promising technical setup we can sink our teeth into.

Copper for instance has been producing a nice converging and playing the swings is encouraged. If you can catch a price pattern entry to the upside right now. The RTV-L on the map right now has triggered but has pulled back. Perhaps a chance to get in with a very speculative (i.e. small) position. Interestingly the 100-hour on this chart has been completely ignored, and for now so should we.

More below for my intrepid subs:


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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • SS_JJ

    Both my short tape and long silver miner trades make money today. Yeah!

  • Fearless

    In case you’re interested, the DJIA inside period from last Friday broke to the down side. The trend trade short from September 27 is still running.

  • Ronebadger

    Sell the rip?

  • Heisen_Gerb
  • Fearless

    The polar bear doesn’t like opening new positions in the middle of a trend until an important inflection point.

  • SS_JJ

    Thank you.

  • BobbyLow

    Quite the Fuckerama going on in Oil this morning. 🙂

  • Dyellowflash

    ZL seems to hate the up move so far…

  • BobbyLow

    Heisen Gerb,

    I just replied to your comment and you had removed it. LOL

    So here is what I was going to say:

    I’ve found that Gaps like this one are subject to fizzle and turn around so it can be an equal opportunity screwer.

    I held long Oil over the weekend and thought I might be one of the screwee’s this morning but used a break of the 9 AM Hourly Candle Low of 101.86 as a Stop.) Then the 10 AM Candle only hit a Low of 102 and and said “Wham Bam Thank You Mam”, – turned around and it was off to the races.

    Slippery Bastards in more ways than one. 🙂

  • Heisen_Gerb

    I remove off-the-cuff comments, after a few minutes.
    did you see the oil covered wrestling babes?

  • SS_JJ

    please repost the oil-covered wrestling babes 😉

  • molecool

    Dead here – nobody trading today?

  • Ronebadger

    sitting on some shorts…

  • saltwaterdog

    The monthly vol-bomb for agriculture originally scheduled for Friday (WASDE report) has been cancelled. No new date set

  • Ronebadger

    So far, today is VIX Step One … again…it might be running up the upper BB

  • BobbyLow

    Got stopped on two Forex Plays (Chop City)

    Still long oil at this moment.

    /GC would have been good but too rich for a ham and egger like me.

    For the rest of the day, I just need to be patient and not force trades. 🙂

  • molecool

    Really do not like the tape of the past few weeks – we just came out of the summer and things should flow a lot better. The churn we’re in on the equities and FX side obviously a response to the political games of brinksmanship which at this point have become a recurring theme. Investors/traders are confused here and it’s reflected in the tape – only institutional traders and market makers are able to take advantage of this (evidenced by repeated gaps and fills).

  • molecool

    Yup – chop city all across. Hating the tape and I’m afraid we’re going to stay in this shit until Washington is forced to clean up their act (i.e. bond market default on the 24th). This is getting ridiculous and in some ways I’m hoping a default will happen as those fucking children running Congress need to be taught a lesson about playing the brinksmanship game. If you are a Chinese investor – how do you think they feel about the Trillion they’ve poured into treasuries over the past two decades? This could get really ugly in a jiffy. Perhaps it should – I think we need a big event to reset everyone’s brain – in Washington as well as on the street.

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Exiting VIX longs, added $ longs, looking at exiting mining shorts

  • Skynard

    Second that, that would make my year:) It always seems that a pretension of this sort is what it generally takes.

  • BobbyLow

    I agree.

    I’ve also accepted the fact that I’m powerless over what these assholes in Washington do.

    However, I do have the power over my own keyboard. And I need to use this power more cautiously than usual. 🙂

  • BobbyLow

    Flipped from Long to Short on Oil.

  • molecool


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